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GTA Resale Housing Market Posts Best June on Record

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carturo15

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GTA Resale Housing Market Posts Best June on Record
TORONTO, July 6, 2009 - In June 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record
10,955 sales, up 27 per cent from June 2008. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in
June was 100,700.1
"The record result in June is testament to the fundamentally sound housing market in the GTA,"
said the Toronto Real Estate Board’s newly appointed President Tom Lebour. "An increasing
number of households have been confident in purchasing a home in the region’s affordable and
diverse resale housing market."
The average price for June transactions was $403,972 – up by two per cent compared to the
same month last year.
"The re-emergence of seller’s market conditions has exerted upward pressure on home prices,"
explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Look for sales to remain
high relative to listings in the second half of the year. This will keep home prices growing."
 
Pretty remarkable.

I continue to think that the emperor has no clothes, but there sure are a lot of people who want to dress like him!
 
Not that much to spin this time around. All the numbers were pretty remarkable, even if they sometimes defy logic.

Unit sales up 27% from last year.
Average price up 2% from last year.
Median price up 3% from last year.

June 2009 - Best June On Record

In June the median price was $345,000, from the $335,250 recorded during June of 2008.
 
well if we look at chart for median prices from 1999 - 2009, we can clearly see the stabilization between 2007 to 2009, that's exactly the best scenario we can hope for, stabilization, no drastic increase or decrease.

So hopefully the market stays that way
 
I've been thinking about this some more.

At the beginning of June, 5yr fixed rates went up 10-15%. If someone looking to buy is pre-approved at the old rates (90 days?), then they've got a real motivation to buy within that window of time. Use it or lose it, correct?

That would suggest that we'll see noticibly lower figures in August, after the rush to beat the expiring lower rate guarantees ends in July.

So I'm going out on a limb and predicting that unless rates go back down, TO sales will hit a brick wall in August.
 
daveto said:
I've been thinking about this some more.

At the beginning of June, 5yr fixed rates went up 10-15%. If someone looking to buy is pre-approved at the old rates (90 days?), then they've got a real motivation to buy within that window of time. Use it or lose it, correct?

That would suggest that we'll see noticibly lower figures in August, after the rush to beat the expiring lower rate guarantees ends in July.

So I'm going out on a limb and predicting that unless rates go back down, TO sales will hit a brick wall in August.
Click to expand...
I've noticed several people saying this, but I don't think it makes much sense. Rates are still moderately low, at around 4.39%ish.

I'm predicting that sales will slow in August, but won't hit a brick wall.
 
I'm sure there are people here that can speak with greater authority on the subject but my sense is that banks are systematically moving to an era of tight lending conditions even in the sacred residential mortgage sector (don't get me started on commercial mortgages). I personally know of two parties recently who entered into purchase and sales agreements on the basis of their pre-approved mortgage potential and had the banks come back to them saying they paid too much. Therefore, because all financing is subject to bank appraisal the potential purchasers were stuck either having to pony up large sums in cash (50-60k range) to bridge the gap between their assumed borrowing amount and the bank appraisal or forfeit their deposit to the seller.
 
TrickyRicky is right - the banks are doing more due diligence these days on the appraisal end - in the past, sometimes they would have their appraiser just do a drive-by, snap a pic, and drive away...sometimes these were only done a day or two before closing....

(fyi, the banks need to have an appraisal on file, in case they are ever audited, they can show where the loan money went, and their justification for lending it)

Now they are doing proper appraisals, where the appraiser books an actual appointment, inspects the house, and files his or her report...

If the house appraises lower than the price that was paid, then there is a problem...bidding war participants need to beware!

Nevertheless, the market is showing remarkable strength - incredible, really..
 
Quite a bit of truth in what yyzer says (and I speak from personal involvement). The banks have tightened up on mortgage lending across the board, commercial and residential. If buying, make sure you are preapproved, and get the specifics down tight. Even if preapproved, make your offer conditional on financing, and don't be stampeded into making an unconditional offer unless you are sure that you are OK for financing.

My opinion: the market has clearly been stronger for the past three months. Anecdotally, I can't tell you how many agents are suddenly saying how busy they are. Some of these are people who had nothing happening last fall and winter. I'm not ready yet to call it a sellers' market; I think it's pretty much balanced. May and June are always strong months, and the pace will slow during the summer.

But reports for the past three months or so continue to contradict the Chicken Little naysayers who seem to take pleasure in predicting disaster.
The sky is not falling; it really never was.
 
Observer Walt said:
But reports for the past three months or so continue to contradict the Chicken Little naysayers who seem to take pleasure in predicting disaster.
Click to expand...

My pleasure comes from avoiding the disaster which has befallen tens of millions of families as the global housing bubble deflates.
 
Observer Walt said:
Quite a bit of truth in what yyzer says (and I speak from personal involvement). The banks have tightened up on mortgage lending across the board, commercial and residential. If buying, make sure you are preapproved, and get the specifics down tight. Even if preapproved, make your offer conditional on financing, and don't be stampeded into making an unconditional offer unless you are sure that you are OK for financing.

My opinion: the market has clearly been stronger for the past three months. Anecdotally, I can't tell you how many agents are suddenly saying how busy they are. Some of these are people who had nothing happening last fall and winter. I'm not ready yet to call it a sellers' market; I think it's pretty much balanced. May and June are always strong months, and the pace will slow during the summer.

But reports for the past three months or so continue to contradict the Chicken Little naysayers who seem to take pleasure in predicting disaster.
The sky is not falling; it really never was.
Click to expand...

A certain "dreamer" comes to mind, no?
 
I don't think there will be any pullback with houses, but all bets are off with the smaller condo market (under 650 sq ft). Watch out for next year when another 35 000 will be completed - most of them downtown. Let's see what happens with a lack of supply then.
 
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