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GTA May Resale Housing Sales Higher Than Last Year

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carturo15

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TORONTO, June 3, 2009 - In May 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,589 sales, up almost two per cent from May 2008 – the first annual increase since December 2007. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in May was 81,300.

“The resale housing market in the GTA has remained resilient in the face of challenging times globally,†according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Many home buyers have taken advantage of extremely low mortgage rates.â€

The average price for April transactions was $395,609 – down less than one per cent compared to the same month last year.

“The average resale home price has moved in line with last year’s level because of tighter market conditions experienced this Spring,†stated Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Home sales have increased strongly relative to new listings, bolsterin home prices.â€
 
carturo15 said:
TORONTO, June 3, 2009 - In May 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,589 sales, up almost two per cent from May 2008 – the first annual increase since December 2007. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in May was 81,300.

“The resale housing market in the GTA has remained resilient in the face of challenging times globally,†according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Many home buyers have taken advantage of extremely low mortgage rates.â€

The average price for April transactions was $395,609 – down less than one per cent compared to the same month last year.

“The average resale home price has moved in line with last year’s level because of tighter market conditions experienced this Spring,†stated Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Home sales have increased strongly relative to new listings, bolstering home prices.â€
Click to expand...


May 2009 Sales have increased 200% compared to Jan 2009 .... also prices have increased a whopping 500% since 1980. The market is doing incredibly well in face of challenging economic times. /sacrasm.

I wonder why they didn't do Jan to May comparisons this time around.
 
carturo15 said:
TORONTO, June 3, 2009 - In May 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,589 sales, up almost two per cent from May 2008 – the first annual increase since December 2007. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in May was 81,300....
Click to expand...

Two things to note. Today is June 2, not June 3.

Second, TREB used to present this press release the middle of the 3rd business day after the end of the month. Then, for the last six months or so it has been coming out at the end of the fourth business day. Now it is out the middle of the second business day? Seems like when they had less sales to count in the past six months it would have taken less time, not more time??

In any event, this will be a very interesting summer for RE in Toronto. We'll see if the next 4 months match the 6% increase we saw May to Aug 2008. But more importantly we'll see if today's 5%-10% increase in 5 year fixed rates (with more to come?) resumes the downward trend, or whether the market has legs.
 
Real estate sales tend to be highly seasonal, so YOY (year over year) analysis means more than month to month analysis.
 
daveto said:
In any event, this will be a very interesting summer for RE in Toronto. We'll see if the next 4 months match the 6% increase we saw May to Aug 2008. But more importantly we'll see if today's 5%-10% increase in 5 year fixed rates (with more to come?) resumes the downward trend, or whether the market has legs.
Click to expand...

Can you please give a link to the 5 year fixed rates?
 
carturo15 said:
TORONTO, June 3, 2009 - In May 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,589 sales, up almost two per cent from May 2008 – the first annual increase since December 2007. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in May was 81,300.

“The resale housing market in the GTA has remained resilient in the face of challenging times globally,” according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Many home buyers have taken advantage of extremely low mortgage rates.”

The average price for April transactions was $395,609 – down less than one per cent compared to the same month last year.

“The average resale home price has moved in line with last year’s level because of tighter market conditions experienced this Spring,” stated Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Home sales have increased strongly relative to new listings, bolstering home prices.”
Click to expand...
Actually it's May. Here is the corrected version.

1975 22,020 $57,581
1976 19,025 $61,389
1977 20,512 $64,559
1978 21,184 $67,333
1979 23,466 $70,830
1980 26,017 $75,694
1981 29,625 $90,203
1982 25,336 $95,496
1983 30,046 $101,626
1984 31,905 $102,318
1985 45,509 $109,094
1986 52,919 $138,925
1987 43,475 $189,105
1988 49,381 $229,635
1989 38,960 $273,698
1990 26,779 $255,020
1991 38,144 $234,313
1992 41,703 $214,971
1993 38,990 $206,490
1994 44,237 $208,921
1995 39,273 $203,028
1996 55,779 $198,150
1997 58,014 $211,307
1998 55,344 $216,815
1999 58,957 $228,372
2000 58,343 $243,255
2001 67,612 $251,508
2002 74,759 $275,231
2003 78,898 $293,067
2004 83,501 $315,231
2005 84,145 $335,907
2006 83,084 $351,941
2007 93,193 $376,236

2008
January 5,075 $374,449
February 6,015 $382,048
March 6,631 $380,338
April 8,762 $398,687
May 9,411 $398,148
June 8,600 $395,866
July 7,806 $371,427
August 6,318 $364,886
September 6,424 $368,549
October 5,155 $352,974
November 3,640 $368,582
December 2,577 $361,415
Total** 74,552 $379,347

2009
January 2,670 $343,632
February 4,120 $361,305
March 6,171 $362,050
April 8,107 $385,641
May 9,589 $395,609
Year-to-Date** 30,233 $376,967

So, the 2009 year-to-date is about the same as the average for the whole year of 2007. It's $2380 below the 2008 average, or a drop of 0.6%.

If I don't use the year-to-date numbers, but use the listed monthly numbers, Jan - May 2009 averages $377081.
Using the listed monthly numbers for the same period in 2008 gives an average of $388941. That means in 2009, prices have dropped 3.0% ($11860) over the same period.
 
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Reminds me of stats! My prof said median values better reflect the true middle (unless we're talking about shoe sizes, then mode is better). Thank you - that will be $5000/year.

When you have the time, can you do the same thing using median values? (don't know if it would make a difference to the overall picture).
 
Monaco said:
Reminds me of stats! My prof said median values better reflect the true middle (unless we're talking about shoe sizes, then mode is better). Thank you - that will be $5000/year.

When you have the time, can you do the same thing using median values? (don't know if it would make a difference to the overall picture).
Click to expand...
They don't list the median prices like that, so I can't do the calculation. However, they do say this:

"In May the median price was $337,000, from the $338,000 recorded during May of 2008."

So for the month of May, the median price is almost identical (with a difference of 0.3%).

---------

BTW, the average price in 1984 was $102318. Assuming the 2009 year-to-date numbers are representative for the entire year, the increase over 25 years is $274649 (268%). That represents a yearly compounded rate of increase of 5.35%. If that rate of increase were to hold for the next 25 years, the average price in 2034 would be $1.39 million. OTOH, if you were to assume that the increase were just to match inflation (est. at 2%), that would make the price $618454. With a yearly increase of 4%, homes would be $1 million in 2034.

If you take the middle ground and expect increases of 3.25% yearly over the next 25 years, then expect average homes to be at $838600 by then. The term "millionaire" is quickly becoming an irrelevant one.
 
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Some of you might enjoy this quote from Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged:

“Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, ‘Account overdrawn.’â€

The current low rates are doing nothing but inflating housing bubble even more. higher rates will bring out the people that can ACTUALLY afford to buy something, and the ones relying on FREE money back in their bunkers...
USA housing is at 2001/2002 levels now, I see no reason why Canadian housing should stay where it is. Time will show.
Interest rates can only go up from here, what happens next is clear even to those at CREB who advertise through MSM this times as BEST to buy a house.
I simply can't believe there are so many morons jumping in RE.
No pain no gain they say. Smart are waiting or selling.
 
There's also another school of thoughts that the US govn't wants to create inflation, devalue their dollar. That means it's a good time to buy (stuff) in order to fight inflation.

Anyways, things change so rapidly it's hard to predict long term. Let's see how it plays out.
 
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