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GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

There are a bunch of questions for a Brantford service:

1. If it cannot stop at Dundas (due to to the grade) it is only a 2 stop train (Brantford and Hamilton...maybe a suburban and downtown stop in Brantford).
Here's a picture of the former Dundas Station, the site is still extant, I was studying it last night for cycling paths into Hamilton from the northwest as alternates to to the TH&B Trail:
http://www.railpictures.ca/upload/cn-72-arrives-at-the-dundas-station
I just Googled for any case of runaway trains from there, could find none. Other tragic accidents, yes, but grade not a concern.
Compare to Niagara which goes through a lot of towns.
There may not be the volume of travel to justify it, but once the buses start to Brantford from Hamilton in September, we'll have a better idea of passenger load.
2. Which station in Hamilton/Bulington should it stop at? Aldershot or West Harbour?
Both could be done alternately, albeit I favour straight through via Aldershot for reasons of time. The bulk of the demand would be to points east, not Hamilton.
3. Has to get by the Junction
Yes, that would have to be addressed, but this wouldn't be frequent all day service and wouldn't pertain to a direct Toronto-Brantford route.
4. Do we want suburban development to jump the Escarpment and be built on prime farmland?
If buses and VIA are already doing that leg, how does that impact Places to Grow? Guelph and K/W are also up the Escarpment.
5. Six Nations concerns
First Nations people ride trains too...that's a really desperate point.

If the demand justifies doing this run by rail, then why not? The junction may have to be addressed if it's going to be run via West Harbour. Otherwise, the point is moot. Is Brantford growing and a likely candidate for GO service? Absolutely, Brantford, in *relative terms* remains affordable and available for house prices and much more easily accessible by rail than K-W/Guelph. I'd suggest some of the services now terminating/beginning at Aldershot and not due to run-through to West Harbour as being candidates to service Brantford...*if demand justifies it*.

Edit to Add: Just referring to the GO Brantford Business Case, and according to IBI (authors of the study) Hamilton would be the prime destination:
[...]
Conclusions
• Inter-municipal transit links are beneficial
• Hamilton is primary destination – 2011 TTS data shows increased travel to Hamilton less to Toronto [...]
http://www.brantford.ca/Transit Publications Documents/TZS_Brantford_GO_ presentation 2014-02-21.pdf

That's curious, it might have shifted in five years, because the GO bus is to terminate at Aldershot via McMaster, not Hamilton GO Centre. It's a shame that running every other one from Aldershot up Hwy 6 via the Aberfoyle loop wasn't considered. Connections there to the 25, 29, and 45,6,7,8 would allow travel on to K/W and Guelph University or Guelph Central, and to the east.
 
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This opinion piece by Minister Del Duca in the St. Catharines standard has a detailed break down of the improvements on the Corridor:

There is much work to be done to complete this work, and while all involved wish it were a simpler and quicker task, it is not. There will be:

• 9.8 km of new track between Desjardins Canal area and the new West Harbour GO Station to support increased GO train service within Hamilton (currently under construction);

• 3.9 km of new track between West Harbour GO Station and the future Confederation GO Station;

• 16.4 km of new track between Nelles Road, Grimsby, and Jordan Station, which is an existing single track section;

• 3.7 km of new track between Stanley Road, Niagara Falls, and the Niagara Falls station, an existing single track section;

• Pocket track at St. Catharines station;

• Signals for the new track;

• Extension of the centralized traffic control system from Stanley Road, Niagara Falls, to the Niagara Falls station;

• 12 new crossovers between the new Confederation station and Niagara Falls;

• Road crossing modifications at 17 locations (additional track, road and approach modifications, and crossing protection modifications);

• Culvert extensions as required, and

• The infrastructure required for Niagara service will add to the infrastructure required for extending service from West Harbour station to the new Confederation station.
 
There are a bunch of questions for a Brantford service:
4. Do we want suburban development to jump the Escarpment and be built on prime farmland?

Hamilton is already all in on this. Very low density subdivisions for commuting to K-W/Cambridge, Guelph, Hamilton Airport, and Burlington are all over already.

Example here.
 
This opinion piece by Minister Del Duca in the St. Catharines standard has a detailed break down of the improvements on the Corridor:

That's quite a list. And quite a build-out, it will support a serious frequency of trains.

The nice part is, that's a much more specific and tangible to-do list than some of the fluff we've heard in the other announcements. It could only have come from the people actually planning the service. For once, something transparent and credible.

- Paul
 
For whatever reasons, Metrolinx has no interest in running trains to Peterborough, at least not in any immediate timeframe. As you have noted, it would cost quite a bit to bring the line up to snuff to allow the travel times to be competitive. VIA has no interest in the corridor, however, so that saves a potential headache.

Actually VIA does have an interest in the Peterborough corridor for its HFR (high-frequency rail) project. It has not been stated publicly but there are many indicators pointing toward this, as discussed in-depth in the VIA thread. If VIA upgraded the corridor then maybe Metrolinx would piggyback off this and provide service to Peterborough, but lots of unknowns still here.
 
Actually VIA does have an interest in the Peterborough corridor for its HFR (high-frequency rail) project. It has not been stated publicly but there are many indicators pointing toward this, as discussed in-depth in the VIA thread. If VIA upgraded the corridor then maybe Metrolinx would piggyback off this and provide service to Peterborough, but lots of unknowns still here.

I have seen multiple subtle-yet-strong VIA hints (here and elsewhere) towards the Peterborough corridor for HFR. It has not filtered down to train drivers yet but that seems to be the word within VIA headquarters. The study that has just received federal funding, will probably reveal more on this.

Corridor requires a lot of work, but apparently even with the switchbridges, it is surprisingly workable within the HFR budget! Single track with lots of passing track. Supposedly mostly tweaks, minor EA-not-required corridor straigenings (very close to existing centerline) in rural areas and modern passenger-train-optimized camber (track tilt) adjustments for maximal speed. More curvy track in Europe still manage fast service. Also tilting trains were rumored on the table. Peterborough is apparently mathematically doable 2.5 hour Toronto-Ottawa, even with a bunch of switchbridge renos, and without needing high speed trains. I was surprised at the VIA tidbits I learned about.

And then I found out about new rail corridor analysis software packages!

It is amazing new computer simulation software is nowadays able to discover zero-EA optimizations in a problematic corridor (like readjusting track tilt for passenger trains instead of freight) that used to be done by trial and error in the olden days. Making it a much more minor nursing of corridor, skipping low-effectiveness work and prioritizing high priority track work. And old curvy corridors with 25 or 50 meter ROW width can speed up trains significantly with a minor track-straightening (corner cutting), combined with new trackbed tilt, and legally without requiring an EA, especially if you don't need to four-track the corridor. Figure out how much speed you can safely get with keeping existing level crossings. Hundreds of modern 'optimizations' auto-suggested by the new modern rail corridor analysis software packages, and you discover which gives maximum speedups for minimum money.

Definitely preliminary talk, likey executive room rumors, and what was apparently computer simulation stuff, nothing remotely filtered down to train drivers yet. All anecdotes and hearsay, but multiple sources and strong hints in multiple places -- apparently it's being looked at as a possibility at minimum. Superficially or seriously, the Peterborough corridor is already computer simulated to 2.5 hour Toronto-Ottawa while keeping majority of existing level crossings.

The main barrier is probably NIMBY by Peterborough residents once they realize VIA wants to reactivate the corridor. And the loss of the trail. This will be a surprise out of left field.

Not a done deal, and those mentioned construction timelines are jokingly aggressive, when there is no remote peep yet on procurement. Add probably five years to what YDS says, at best. I think there is probably a hedge on going through Kingston instead.

Eager to see the report...
 
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I just Googled for any case of runaway trains from there, could find none.

Runaway trains coming downhill isn't the problem. Slow-moving heavy trains plodding uphill is the problem. It's common for them to stall on that line and have to be rescued, plugging one of two tracks. The existing VIA service plugs the other track for significant periods already. There is no potential for GO to be added without some expensive triple tracking, and the ridership doesn't justify *that*. Nor is the current traffic volume on 403 in need of offloading. VIA might be content to add some cars to its daily semi-commuter train, with some co-fare subsidy. That would be far and away cheaper - and a much faster trip to Toronto too.

- Paul
 
I have seen multiple strong VIA hints towards the Peterborough corridor for HFR. It has not filtered down to train drivers yet

Actually, it has. VIA's CEO has been holding plenty of town hall sessions with the rank and file. He is coming across very well, too - candid and not afraid to call it as he sees it.

There's a difference however between including the line as an "alternative" to develop cost and benefit comparisons with other scenarios, and actually wanting to build it. I remain skeptical.

- Paul
 
There's a difference however between including the line as an "alternative" to develop cost and benefit comparisons with other scenarios, and actually wanting to build it. I remain skeptical.
Indeed, it is not a done deal.

It feels like an "option" or "hedge" but it is surprisingly possible, and actually mathematically doable.
 
Superficially or seriously, the Peterborough corridor is already computer simulated to 2.5 hour Toronto-Ottawa while keeping majority of existing level crossings.

Eager to see the report...

Interesting. Are there any basic official (or semi-official) maps for me to peruse? If this corridor were to be upgraded, do you think it would more than likely offer two tracks for the TO-PTBO section (with the second track for GO/freight)?
 
Interesting. Are there any basic official (or semi-official) maps for me to peruse? If this corridor were to be upgraded, do you think it would more than likely offer two tracks for the TO-PTBO section (with the second track for GO/freight)?

There are, check out the VIA Rail thread - we may be digressing from the scope of this thread.

- Paul
 
Actually VIA does have an interest in the Peterborough corridor for its HFR (high-frequency rail) project. It has not been stated publicly but there are many indicators pointing toward this, as discussed in-depth in the VIA thread. If VIA upgraded the corridor then maybe Metrolinx would piggyback off this and provide service to Peterborough, but lots of unknowns still here.

My contacts within VIA - which go far above just operating staff - say otherwise.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
Runaway trains coming downhill isn't the problem. Slow-moving heavy trains plodding uphill is the problem. It's common for them to stall on that line and have to be rescued, plugging one of two tracks. The existing VIA service plugs the other track for significant periods already. There is no potential for GO to be added without some expensive triple tracking, and the ridership doesn't justify *that*. Nor is the current traffic volume on 403 in need of offloading. VIA might be content to add some cars to its daily semi-commuter train, with some co-fare subsidy. That would be far and away cheaper - and a much faster trip to Toronto too.

- Paul
GO is projecting it by 2020.
 
My contacts within VIA - which go far above just operating staff - say otherwise.
So superficial interest, maybe. Talking it, trying it out as thought exercises, maybe even getting an intern to computer-simulate it, but not walking the talk on this corridor.

Do you feel it is a playing card for winning a passenger solution for the corridor through Kingston?
 
Speaking of the Niagara GO announcement mentioning "over 30km of track", I just noticed the distance between Lewis layover yard and the St. Catharines station is 33 kilometers!

I'm aware of:

- Funding of West Harbour GO funds extra trackage between Hamilton Rail Junction and West Harbour GO
.....Completion by end of 2016
- Funding of Confederation GO funds a single parallel track between West Harbour GO and Confederation GO (and probably to Lewis Yard).
.....Completion by 2019
- Funding of Niagara GO initiative funds a single parallel track between Lewis Yard and St. Catharines.
.....Completion by 2021

This might not be accurate, but the kilometers seems to line up...

So, it appers by 2021, there will be a fully GO-dedicated track between Hamilton Rail Junction and St. Catharines? I'm just speculating here, but the track lengths seem coincidential.

It would certainly make sense towards enabling reliable all-day 2-way service all the way to St. Catharines (frequency ~2.5 hours Hamilton-StCat, 30 or 60 min Toronto-Hamilton), at least as two segments (Toronto-Hamilton, and Hamilton-Niagara), with maybe long-term unification (transfer-less) once they do a rail-to-rail grade separation for full freight separation.
 
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