GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[vegeta_skyline]

somewhere south of Rutherford station, right vegeta?

Yup, 2.8 mile south of the station. Meaning they have between 44 - 48 miles to cover, depending on where it will end. Hopefully not just to Barrie South, the current beginning of the 'mainline' and right up to the yard instead.

Signals would let them push towards 6, 7, 8 trains in the rush with 15 minutes between them, although I guess the number of trains they can stockpile overnight at the ends of the line and congestion at Union then becomes the limiting factor.

Makes sense, even just one of those extra trains would probably be busier than all the mid-day trains, at least to start. Currently there's enough track space for 6 trains, but there's space to add at least one more track(2 trains) between the yard and Lakeshore Drive. I'm guessing the city owns that property, which shouldn't pose a problem.

 

[gweed123]

I catch the midnight train eastbound on a weekday from time to time ... even it isn't that empty. If it was the old 6-car single-level trains, it would feel packed!

On a weekend, I'm surprised how full they are some times. It was standing room only Saturday a couple of weeks ago.

I've taken some late trains back on the Lakeshore West line, sometimes I'm the only person in the car.

Would it be possible for them to run 12 car train sets during peak, and 6 cars off-peak? For the 12 car trains, have a locomotive at each end, and then at the end of peak detach them in the middle. Seems to me like that would be a better use of resources.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I've taken some late trains back on the Lakeshore West line, sometimes I'm the only person in the car.

Would it be possible for them to run 12 car train sets during peak, and 6 cars off-peak? For the 12 car trains, have a locomotive at each end, and then at the end of peak detach them in the middle. Seems to me like that would be a better use of resources.

Well me too, especially after Oakville.

 

[TOareaFan]

I've taken some late trains back on the Lakeshore West line, sometimes I'm the only person in the car.

Would it be possible for them to run 12 car train sets during peak, and 6 cars off-peak? For the 12 car trains, have a locomotive at each end, and then at the end of peak detach them in the middle. Seems to me like that would be a better use of resources.

Well me too, especially after Oakville.

I have very little experience to draw on but my experience is that when I have been on an off-peak train that is not tied to an event (eg a TFC match) the trains are more empty than full.

The question is what is the difference between "semi full" as theterribone described them earlier and nearly empty as I describe them.

Does GO (or anyone) publish ridership numbers broken down by peak and off peak? I am sure they know....do they ever share it?

 

[Jonny5]

I don't trust anyone's judgement about how busy the Lakeshore trains are because the trains don't load evenly and they don't unload evenly.

I'd say off-peak, 75% of riders boarding at Union sit in the east half while only 25% are in the west, since most come up from the GO concourse and very few enter from York Street. People also know what cars to sit in to quickly get out at their station rather than be stuck for 5 minutes while the platform empties. You can be the only rider on a car, but walk into the next car and find it is full. Oakville station seems to empty out the westernmost car completely at rush hour. I've been the only rider in the car west of there at 6pm, but there are still a few hundred on the train.

Unfortunately I've never found any published stats that show ridership by train trip.

 

[TOareaFan]

I don't trust anyone's judgement about how busy the Lakeshore trains are because the trains don't load evenly and they don't unload evenly.

I'd say off-peak, 75% of riders boarding at Union sit in the east half while only 25% are in the west, since most come up from the GO concourse and very few enter from York Street. People also know what cars to sit in to quickly get out at their station rather than be stuck for 5 minutes while the platform empties. You can be the only rider on a car, but walk into the next car and find it is full. Oakville station seems to empty out the westernmost car completely at rush hour. I've been the only rider in the car west of there at 6pm, but there are still a few hundred on the train.

Unfortunately I've never found any published stats that show ridership by train trip.

Good points....what we can do, however, is draw some conclusions from the following "known" stuff (I think...please correct me if wrong):

1....Overall, GO recovers 85% of their operating costs from the farebox.
2....During the peak hours virtually all trains on virtually all lines are full to overflowing
3....If #2 is correct can we assume that the fare recovery on those trains is 100% or greater?
4....If yes to #3, then the cost recovery on the off-peak service must be quite low (ie ridership is low) because a smaller percentage of the trips (less frequent and only on 2 of the lines) is dragging the number down by a significant number.

I doubt we will ever know the real numbers (not sure we should, really) but it does irk a bit when someone opposes any off peak on other lines because they would not be full but, in the same post, proposes more off peak on the line that already has it and where the trains are not full enough to maintain the cost recovery averages.

It just leads me to my long held belief/position that in the limited resource world we/GO lives in......30 minute service on Lakeshore lines should wait until all lines have attained the level of service that Lakeshore currently has.

In the hypothetical question I posed above, it is clear to me that the Barrie line should get the resources of the additional crews to bring off-peak service. If Milton or Georgetown were physically ready for off-peak service it would be them but they are not and I would not be adding trains to the Lakeshore at the expense of off-peak service elsewhere.

 

[gweed123]

Good points....what we can do, however, is draw some conclusions from the following "known" stuff (I think...please correct me if wrong):

1....Overall, GO recovers 85% of their operating costs from the farebox.
2....During the peak hours virtually all trains on virtually all lines are full to overflowing
3....If #2 is correct can we assume that the fare recovery on those trains is 100% or greater?
4....If yes to #3, then the cost recovery on the off-peak service must be quite low (ie ridership is low) because a smaller percentage of the trips (less frequent and only on 2 of the lines) is dragging the number down by a significant number.

I doubt we will ever know the real numbers (not sure we should, really) but it does irk a bit when someone opposes any off peak on other lines because they would not be full but, in the same post, proposes more off peak on the line that already has it and where the trains are not full enough to maintain the cost recovery averages.

It just leads me to my long held belief/position that in the limited resource world we/GO lives in......30 minute service on Lakeshore lines should wait until all lines have attained the level of service that Lakeshore currently has.

In the hypothetical question I posed above, it is clear to me that the Barrie line should get the resources of the additional crews to bring off-peak service. If Milton or Georgetown were physically ready for off-peak service it would be them but they are not and I would not be adding trains to the Lakeshore at the expense of off-peak service elsewhere.

Very good analysis. It does beg a couple questions though:

1) Is Lakeshore mostly empty off-peak because the ridership potential isn't there? Or because the service still isn't frequent enough to draw in enough people to make it semi-profitable?
2) Does the same level of potential ridership exist on other GO lines that would make that as popular or more popular than the Lakeshore line if they were given 1hr all-day service?

Realistically, off-peak services will never attain a 100% cost recovery. They will always rely on some sort of balancing effect from peak period cost recoveries. What needs to be done for each line is to determine what the optimal cost recovery rate is for non-peak travel (ie at what frequency of service do we maximize the number of riders per dollar spent). For one line it may be off-peak service every 15 minutes. For another it may be off-peak service every 45 minutes. I don't know off-hand. But I can almost guarantee that the maximum cost recovery ratio will not be the same for every line.

 

[TOareaFan]

Very good analysis. It does beg a couple questions though:

1) Is Lakeshore mostly empty off-peak because the ridership potential isn't there? Or because the service still isn't frequent enough to draw in enough people to make it semi-profitable?
2) Does the same level of potential ridership exist on other GO lines that would make that as popular or more popular than the Lakeshore line if they were given 1hr all-day service?

Realistically, off-peak services will never attain a 100% cost recovery. They will always rely on some sort of balancing effect from peak period cost recoveries. What needs to be done for each line is to determine what the optimal cost recovery rate is for non-peak travel (ie at what frequency of service do we maximize the number of riders per dollar spent). For one line it may be off-peak service every 15 minutes. For another it may be off-peak service every 45 minutes. I don't know off-hand. But I can almost guarantee that the maximum cost recovery ratio will not be the same for every line.

No one really knows what the demand would/could be on the other lines.....'cause it has never really been tried. As someone who lives on one of those lines, though, it gets a bit tiresome hearing about how the Lakeshore deserves more trains because it is the busiest line....without any acknowledgement that it is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.

We all know people who live closer to the Milton line, as an example, who make the trek down to the Lakeshore because of the flexibility that gives them.

Would the the other lines produce similar ridership? I can't think of a logical reason, for example, to assume that the Georgetown line, poperly serviced, with its proximity to the airport, with it being the only line servicing Brampton's soon to be 600k population (keep in mind Mississauga's population of 700k is served by 3 GO train lines) and passing through denser population nodes (I think the "Big Move"'s measurement had it as the 2nd highest density transit line in study) could not produce ridership, over time, that equalled (perhaps even exceeded) Lakeshore West's. No doubt someone more familiar with Milton could make a similar case for that line (without, of course, a unique popluation the size of Brampton's...but perhaps with some other factor).

I just never understand the logic that some put forward (feel free to help me with this) that Lakeshore will not reach its full potential until it gets 30 minute service but since the other lines are not at Lakeshore's ridership level now they should wait until after that to start to climb to Lakeshore's current service level.

EDIT: not sure what I did could correctly be called "analysis"....more just a connective-logic-process

 

[gweed123]

No one really knows what the demand would/could be on the other lines.....'cause it has never really been tried. As someone who lives on one of those lines, though, it gets a bit tiresome hearing about how the Lakeshore deserves more trains because it is the busiest line....without any acknowledgement that it is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.

We all know people who live closer to the Milton line, as an example, who make the trek down to the Lakeshore because of the flexibility that gives them.

Would the the other lines produce similar ridership? I can't think of a logical reason, for example, to assume that the Georgetown line, poperly serviced, with its proximity to the airport, with it being the only line servicing Brampton's soon to be 600k population (keep in mind Mississauga's population of 700k is served by 3 GO train lines) and passing through denser population nodes (I think the "Big Move"'s measurement had it as the 2nd highest density transit line in study) could not produce ridership, over time, that equalled (perhaps even exceeded) Lakeshore West's. No doubt someone more familiar with Milton could make a similar case for that line (without, of course, a unique popluation the size of Brampton's...but perhaps with some other factor).

I just never understand the logic that some put forward (feel free to help me with this) that Lakeshore will not reach its full potential until it gets 30 minute service but since the other lines are not at Lakeshore's ridership level now they should wait until after that to start to climb to Lakeshore's current service level.

EDIT: not sure what I did could correctly be called "analysis"....more just a connective-logic-process

I completely agree with this. I think we're saying pretty much the same thing. I agree that the Lakeshore situation is pretty much a chicken and egg thing. Whichever coop has the most chickens is bound to produce the most eggs.

 

[drum118]

I don't trust anyone's judgement about how busy the Lakeshore trains are because the trains don't load evenly and they don't unload evenly.

I'd say off-peak, 75% of riders boarding at Union sit in the east half while only 25% are in the west, since most come up from the GO concourse and very few enter from York Street. People also know what cars to sit in to quickly get out at their station rather than be stuck for 5 minutes while the platform empties. You can be the only rider on a car, but walk into the next car and find it is full. Oakville station seems to empty out the westernmost car completely at rush hour. I've been the only rider in the car west of there at 6pm, but there are still a few hundred on the train.

Unfortunately I've never found any published stats that show ridership by train trip.

I have asked GO for years on stations numbers as well timeline and never got any info other than total line numbers.

Since I do most my traveling in the west off peak, I have stated to GO president more times than enough that you could put all the riders into 5 cars and still have room to spare.

His answer has always been that it cost too much to breakdown a train for 5 cars and then put it back to 10 cars.

I have asked him show me that number and stated "have you added in the extra cost for fuel, excess wear and tear on those extra 5 cars per train" to that cost? To date no response on cost numbers.

People will head toward the car that is the closes to their station exit so they can be the first off the train so they can be the first out of the parking lot. If you stand outside the platform area, you can see people of all ages doing the 100m dash to their car. You will see this on TTC subway trains. I head toward the front/last car if I am going Bloor station or Islington since the exit is there for me if I have time to get to the platform end.

With the rebuilding of the north parking lot at Oakville, more riders should be using the west end more these days, as I see that during off peak when I getting on a westbound at Oakville.

When the new Oakville parking garage is built at the east end, the east end of the train will be a mad house.

The Lakeshore west end trains carry more riders than the east leg.

All peak trains do a full, plus profit recovery. Mostly a profit on most lines.

ToareaFan: As for the comment that 30 minutes should not happen until all lines reach Lakeshore service level, why is GO the only system in NA not using 30 minutes when all others including new systems less than 10 years old are doing so?

By not doing so, you are chasing riders, profit away and keep adding to the traffic gridlock as well greenhouse gas.

At the same time, not having both direction on all lines is chasing riders away.

The RTP does call for all lines to have all day service, but a number of lines will never see the numbers to justify the quality of service that people want to see. They is also the issue of equipment that is needed to do this and that cannot happen until the lines become electrify.

I would like people who say no 30 minute service on Lakeshore to spend an extra hour or 2 on a regular base waiting for an hour train that shows up 2 hours late because the other one has broken down and see how you like it. That extra time means a lot of different things to people from being late for work, school, appointment, miss bus connection, miss plane flight, missing a show/event, standing out in the cold weather and the list goes on. I am tired of having to wait that extra hour for a cancel train now.

If you want people to move out of their cars to transit, you need real good service and the current system doesn't cut it.

Until 2015/16, neither Milton nor Georgetown will be physically ready for all day service. Milton can see 1 new train each way subject to funding now. KW can get 1-2 extra trains in 2012 subject to funding and crews. You will see 1-2 daily trains from Niagara Falls in 2012.

Metrolinx has made it clear that Lakeshore will see more service within in the next 5 years to the point various peak train will becoming every 5 minutes at various time.

The time has come to move to Europe standards for equipment, as NA standards are out dated, added extra cost to build, add extra fuel to run them, add extra wear and tear to the rail system as well operation improvement.

All GO trains should be using only a 2 man crew to operate the current system. Once you move to 3-5 car trains, only need 1.

 

[TOareaFan]

ToareaFan: As for the comment that 30 minutes should not happen until all lines reach Lakeshore service level, why is GO the only system in NA not using 30 minutes when all others including new systems less than 10 years old are doing so?

By not doing so, you are chasing riders, profit away and keep adding to the traffic gridlock as well greenhouse gas.

At the same time, not having both direction on all lines is chasing riders away.

To clarify, I have never said that 30 minutes should not be the target.....but what I have said is that reaching that target on Lakeshore should be delayed until the other lines get to the all day, every day two way service that is currently available on the Lakeshore lines.

To loop this back to how we got started (this time) on this line-line comparison/discussion....there seems to be a situation nearly developing where one line (in this case Barrie) is (or is nearly) ready to support off peak service from an infrastructure perspective......and there was the notion that some new crews would be available around the same time....so I posed the question...do you introduce that off-peak service on Barrie or do you allocate the new crew resources to Lakeshore to move towards the goal of 30 minute service.

I was surprised that anyone would view 30 minute service on Lakeshore as a higher priority and, frankly, shocked that the rationale was that it is busiest and therefore deserves more service without any acknowledgement that the out of balance service levels is a pretty major contributor to the fact that it is the busiest without recognizing that other lines could start to close that "busiest" gap if they moved towards the current level of service available on Lakeshore.

Yes, 30 minute service is a good and noble goal.....but it should be so on all lines not just making that level a priority on Lakeshore over any improved service on other lines.

Perhaps the discussion is a bit skewed because the line ready first for some off-peak is Barrie (no disprespect) rather than Milton or GTown...but the principle remains the same.......bringing the service level up on the non-Lakeshore lines is, to me, a higher priority than 30 minute service on the Lakeshore line(s).

 

[nfitz]

ToareaFan: As for the comment that 30 minutes should not happen until all lines reach Lakeshore service level, why is GO the only system in NA not using 30 minutes when all others including new systems less than 10 years old are doing so?

GO is only system in NA not using 30 minutes?? From my recent familiarity with Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Seattle, this isn't true. I've looked at using the Hudson Line in New York City to the Bronx before ... and even it only runs hourly off-peak (ended up taking the subway ...)!

Am I misunderstanding something?

 

[Platform 27]

ToareaFan: As for the comment that 30 minutes should not happen until all lines reach Lakeshore service level, why is GO the only system in NA not using 30 minutes when all others including new systems less than 10 years old are doing so?

Leaving aside the issue of whether 30 minute off-peak is really as prevalent across North America as you think it is, don't forget GO does offer 30 minute service. It just offers it using smaller vehicles with rubber wheels that run along pre-existing rights-of-way called "roads."

Few other regional train operators in North America have as comprehensive a bus network as GO. Yes, as traffic gets worse and rush hour gets longer, the speed of buses aren't going to remain great forever. But for now, for most of the day, for most stations, they do offer a faster or comparable trip time.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

GO is only system in NA not using 30 minutes?? From my recent familiarity with Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Seattle, this isn't true. I've looked at using the Hudson Line in New York City to the Bronx before ... and even it only runs hourly off-peak (ended up taking the subway ...)!

Am I misunderstanding something?

On weekdays I think NYC (NJ Transit ) runs close to 30 min.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I have asked GO for years on stations numbers as well timeline and never got any info other than total line numbers.

Since I do most my traveling in the west off peak, I have stated to GO president more times than enough that you could put all the riders into 5 cars and still have room to spare.

His answer has always been that it cost too much to breakdown a train for 5 cars and then put it back to 10 cars.

I have asked him show me that number and stated "have you added in the extra cost for fuel, excess wear and tear on those extra 5 cars per train" to that cost? To date no response on cost numbers.

People will head toward the car that is the closes to their station exit so they can be the first off the train so they can be the first out of the parking lot. If you stand outside the platform area, you can see people of all ages doing the 100m dash to their car. You will see this on TTC subway trains. I head toward the front/last car if I am going Bloor station or Islington since the exit is there for me if I have time to get to the platform end.

With the rebuilding of the north parking lot at Oakville, more riders should be using the west end more these days, as I see that during off peak when I getting on a westbound at Oakville.

When the new Oakville parking garage is built at the east end, the east end of the train will be a mad house.

The Lakeshore west end trains carry more riders than the east leg.

All peak trains do a full, plus profit recovery. Mostly a profit on most lines.

ToareaFan: As for the comment that 30 minutes should not happen until all lines reach Lakeshore service level, why is GO the only system in NA not using 30 minutes when all others including new systems less than 10 years old are doing so?

By not doing so, you are chasing riders, profit away and keep adding to the traffic gridlock as well greenhouse gas.

At the same time, not having both direction on all lines is chasing riders away.

The RTP does call for all lines to have all day service, but a number of lines will never see the numbers to justify the quality of service that people want to see. They is also the issue of equipment that is needed to do this and that cannot happen until the lines become electrify.

I would like people who say no 30 minute service on Lakeshore to spend an extra hour or 2 on a regular base waiting for an hour train that shows up 2 hours late because the other one has broken down and see how you like it. That extra time means a lot of different things to people from being late for work, school, appointment, miss bus connection, miss plane flight, missing a show/event, standing out in the cold weather and the list goes on. I am tired of having to wait that extra hour for a cancel train now.

If you want people to move out of their cars to transit, you need real good service and the current system doesn't cut it.

Until 2015/16, neither Milton nor Georgetown will be physically ready for all day service. Milton can see 1 new train each way subject to funding now. KW can get 1-2 extra trains in 2012 subject to funding and crews. You will see 1-2 daily trains from Niagara Falls in 2012.

Metrolinx has made it clear that Lakeshore will see more service within in the next 5 years to the point various peak train will becoming every 5 minutes at various time.

The time has come to move to Europe standards for equipment, as NA standards are out dated, added extra cost to build, add extra fuel to run them, add extra wear and tear to the rail system as well operation improvement.

All GO trains should be using only a 2 man crew to operate the current system. Once you move to 3-5 car trains, only need 1.

One shot one kill.

To clarify, I have never said that 30 minutes should not be the target.....but what I have said is that reaching that target on Lakeshore should be delayed until the other lines get to the all day, every day two way service that is currently available on the Lakeshore lines.

To loop this back to how we got started (this time) on this line-line comparison/discussion....there seems to be a situation nearly developing where one line (in this case Barrie) is (or is nearly) ready to support off peak service from an infrastructure perspective......and there was the notion that some new crews would be available around the same time....so I posed the question...do you introduce that off-peak service on Barrie or do you allocate the new crew resources to Lakeshore to move towards the goal of 30 minute service.

I was surprised that anyone would view 30 minute service on Lakeshore as a higher priority and, frankly, shocked that the rationale was that it is busiest and therefore deserves more service without any acknowledgement that the out of balance service levels is a pretty major contributor to the fact that it is the busiest without recognizing that other lines could start to close that "busiest" gap if they moved towards the current level of service available on Lakeshore.

Yes, 30 minute service is a good and noble goal.....but it should be so on all lines not just making that level a priority on Lakeshore over any improved service on other lines.

Perhaps the discussion is a bit skewed because the line ready first for some off-peak is Barrie (no disprespect) rather than Milton or GTown...but the principle remains the same.......bringing the service level up on the non-Lakeshore lines is, to me, a higher priority than 30 minute service on the Lakeshore line(s).

On top of what Drum said, CP rail control Milton and those other lines. They don't want expansion right now. CN has sold most of lakeshore to GO and it would be easer for Metrolinx