GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[PShells]

Good! 2036 is quite far but EMUs are the way to build world class regional rail, not electric locos.

I’m not holding my breath on 2036 given the pace of construction to get 2AWD diesel train service at a15-30 minute cadence.

There’s still so much utility relocation, bridge and grade separation, track to be laid (2nd, 3rd and 4th track), track to be moved to its final position, switches to be upgraded, layovers built for 6-car consists etc. type “early work” to be completed before looking at electrification. This “unsexy” work is being completed at a pace that suggests 2036 remains aspirational.

Am I naive in that once all the corridor work is done, pouring foundation for OCS and wiring it up is relatively straightforward? Does Hydro One need a huge lead time to build substations for each line?

I’m sure the entire network will have world class (/s) noise walls though.

 

[crs1026]

I’m not holding my breath on 2036 given the pace of construction to get 2AWD diesel train service at a15-30 minute cadence.

There’s still so much utility relocation, bridge and grade separation, track to be laid (2nd, 3rd and 4th track), track to be moved to its final position, switches to be upgraded, layovers built for 6-car consists etc. type “early work” to be completed before looking at electrification. This “unsexy” work is being completed at a pace that suggests 2036 remains aspirational.

Am I naive in that once all the corridor work is done, pouring foundation for OCS and wiring it up is relatively straightforward? Does Hydro One need a huge lead time to build substations for each line?

It's always worth revisiting the EA report for GO Electrification, to be reminded of what things have seen preparation or rough-in and what things have yet to even have started.

Yes, procurement of electrical supply and control equipment has very long lead times. However, the civil work needed for bridges etc to assure physical separation from high voltage OCS is also very long lead time (if bridges have to be raised or modified etc). And, while some of ML's station structures and signalling circuits have been grounded and isolated electrically, others have not. So yeah, there are gaps in execution that are holding things back.

Could electrification be expedited if someone gave it a major push and declared it the overriding priority? Probably.

Would the ML ridership actually be best served if ML were directed to make electrification the priority and drop everything else? Probably not.

As you note, just getting tracks built and 15-monute 2WAD advanced across all lines is still job one IMHO.

I’m sure the entire network will have world class (/s) noise walls though.

Metrolinx' new motto: What the public can't see, can't hurt us.

- Paul

 

[ProjectEnd]

There is no possible way we're seeing any of this by 2036. I mean, whether or not there's even a world in 2036 seems like more and more of a remote possibility, but GO electrification absolutely will not happen.

 

[cplchanb]

There is no possible way we're seeing any of this by 2036. I mean, whether or not there's even a world in 2036 seems like more and more of a remote possibility, but GO electrification absolutely will not happen.

why? from a technical standpoint it seems quite straightforward. if a developing country like india can do 40000kms in 10 years we absolutely should have no technical hurdles doing a few hundred in that timeframe. (thats already an extremely low bar)

seems more like a political issue now than technical.

 

[ProjectEnd]

why? from a technical standpoint it seems quite straightforward. if a developing country like india can do 40000kms in 10 years we absolutely should have no technical hurdles doing a few hundred in that timeframe. (thats already an extremely low bar)

seems more like a political issue now than technical.

I'll flip that: why?

 

[crs1026]

why? from a technical standpoint it seems quite straightforward. if a developing country like india can do 40000kms in 10 years we absolutely should have no technical hurdles doing a few hundred in that timeframe. (thats already an extremely low bar)

seems more like a political issue now than technical.

It's a budgetary and work management issue not a technical one. .

Take the prerequisite tasks and try to put them into a plan. Look for the longest lead items. Look at the items that do not have a design drawing as of today. And look at how long the task list becomes.

- Paul

PS India's electrification did not happen overnight. Check out this chronology https://st2.indiarailinfo.com/kjfdsuiemjvcya0/0/8/0/5/1242805/0/welcometoofficialwebsiteofcore.pdf

 

[Amare]

why? from a technical standpoint it seems quite straightforward. if a developing country like india can do 40000kms in 10 years we absolutely should have no technical hurdles doing a few hundred in that timeframe. (thats already an extremely low bar)

seems more like a political issue now than technical.

Metrolinx cant even build a simple GO station in a reasonable amount of time or cost, you expect them to have electrification on any line ready in 10 years?

 

[cplchanb]

I'll flip that: why?

why the speed?
you do realize that our infrastructure model is from the roaring 50s. if we ever want to be a modern city with modern infrastructure we cant just sit on our hands and
do bare minimum just because its working now.

not to mention, the long you take, the more costs you pay due to cost escalation, inflation, loss of expertise. that is the cancer right now. people just dont care enough to invest and expect things to be done fast and efficiently

 

[ProjectEnd]

why the speed?
you do realize that our infrastructure model is from the roaring 50s. if we ever want to be a modern city with modern infrastructure we cant just sit on our hands and
do bare minimum just because its working now.

not to mention, the long you take, the more costs you pay due to cost escalation, inflation, loss of expertise. that is the cancer right now. people just dont care enough to invest and expect things to be done fast and efficiently

That's all true, and we're not going to do anything to change it.

 

[cplchanb]

PS India's electrification did not happen overnight. Check out this chronology https://st2.indiarailinfo.com/kjfdsuiemjvcya0/0/8/0/5/1242805/0/welcometoofficialwebsiteofcore.pdf

understood but a large bulk of it, exponentially greater in scope vs us was done in the exact same time we just kept on talking and studying. even if you cut their productivity in half or a quarter they wouldve still been much faster at completion.

 

[cplchanb]

That's all true, and we're not going to do anything to change it.

short of drastic change. maybe a distrupter like brightline can come in to take things over.

 

[ProjectEnd]

short of drastic change. maybe a distrupter like brightline can come in to take things over.

I'm not taking any notes from America: https://www.wlrn.org/business/2026-03-16/brightline-financial-troubles-debt-credit

 

[cplchanb]

I'm not taking any notes from America: https://www.wlrn.org/business/2026-03-16/brightline-financial-troubles-debt-credit

Seems like they overreached too early.
JR can be modeled though. Theyre doing quite well

Still regardless they have shown that they can get infrastructure built quickly and reasonably affordable

 

[urbanclient]

It's a budgetary and work management issue not a technical one. .

Take the prerequisite tasks and try to put them into a plan. Look for the longest lead items. Look at the items that do not have a design drawing as of today. And look at how long the task list becomes.

- Paul

PS India's electrification did not happen overnight. Check out this chronology https://st2.indiarailinfo.com/kjfdsuiemjvcya0/0/8/0/5/1242805/0/welcometoofficialwebsiteofcore.pdf

I question how this is a budgetary issue and not a labour shortage / expertise shortage / competent management shortage? @crs1026 You seem more knowledgeable than me, so please clarify or correct my suppositions:

How is $27.5 billion not enough to electrify 260 km and double tracking just under 150 km (USRC already has enough tracks?). "a Value does not reflect the full project cost" https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...em_10.1_-_CPG_GO_UP_Update_-_FINAL_ENG_Mx.pdf

Or is the $27.5+ billion baseline what is supposedly needed, but the cheapo province is hesitant to dole out the money to execute the plans?
Bear in mind, this is already $105 million/km. Most HSR projects in the world have a much lower per km cost, even if we give each HSR country one "vote", so China doesn't skew the average. I've converted the figures to 2026 $Canadian Dollars.

UIC Europe 2023 (€15–40m/km): $24–65 million/km
World Bank China 2019 (US$17–21m/km): $32–39 million/km
OECD/ITF international 2014 (€22m/km in 2005 prices): $49–51 million/km

And yes, I understand that it's supposed to be more expensive to build on an active rail corridor than building a greenfield line (excepting expropriation costs).

As far as I know, Canada, and more specifically Ontario does not have a large (enough) pool of skilled railway labour, railway construction engineers & management etc... Given how piecemeal and non-concurrent the GO Construction projects seem to be as noted by many on Urban Toronto, I previously questioned if GO Expansion even had 1,500 construction workers total, in comparison to this: https://fullfact.org/economy/china-didnt-build-new-railway-station-nine-hours/

There have been posts with photos on how the needle barely moved on some GO Expansion projects supposedly underway for months, if not years.

 

[cplchanb]

I question how this is a budgetary issue and not a labour shortage / expertise shortage / competent management shortage? @crs1026 You seem more knowledgeable than me, so please clarify or correct my suppositions:

How is $27.5 billion not enough to electrify 260 km and double tracking just under 150 km (USRC already has enough tracks?). "a Value does not reflect the full project cost" https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...em_10.1_-_CPG_GO_UP_Update_-_FINAL_ENG_Mx.pdf

Or is the $27.5+ billion baseline what is supposedly needed, but the cheapo province is hesitant to dole out the money to execute the plans?
Bear in mind, this is already $105 million/km. Most HSR projects in the world have a much lower per km cost, even if we give each HSR country one "vote", so China doesn't skew the average. I've converted the figures to 2026 $Canadian Dollars.

UIC Europe 2023 (€15–40m/km): $24–65 million/km
World Bank China 2019 (US$17–21m/km): $32–39 million/km
OECD/ITF international 2014 (€22m/km in 2005 prices): $49–51 million/km

And yes, I understand that it's supposed to be more expensive to build on an active rail corridor than building a greenfield line (excepting expropriation costs).

As far as I know, Canada, and more specifically Ontario does not have a large (enough) pool of skilled railway labour, railway construction engineers & management etc... Given how piecemeal and non-concurrent the GO Construction projects seem to be as noted by many on Urban Toronto, I previously questioned if GO Expansion even had 1,500 construction workers total, in comparison to this: https://fullfact.org/economy/china-didnt-build-new-railway-station-nine-hours/

There have been posts with photos on how the needle barely moved on some GO Expansion projects supposedly underway for months, if not years.

see this is also a byproduct of our society fawning on white collared jobs. we simply dont have enough skilled tradesmen to do our jobs. for the last couple decades parents have been preaching to their children the stigma of not going to university and working on bay st or some other tech firm.
this is result. we dont have a skilled trades future. queue the temp foreign workers.