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GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

We are all conjecturing without data, for sure.

Rather than look for bogeypeople under the bed, why don't we consider what economies there might actually be that be available if a more disciplined and penny pinching provincial regime were in place? Ford says he wants to find economies. There may actually be plenty

Some suggestions:
- Suspend the GO station building program, and reopen the bad decisions that were made when Del Duca decided that Kirby was his Waterloo. The original GO study recommended only 2 stations, IIRC, whereas ML ended up approving 11 because once Kirby made the list, other more deserving stations had to be put on the list. A station is $100M-$150M, after all. Revisit the recommendations with an eye to only approving 4-6 of them. That gives some legitimate flexibility to merge political and technical input (the original Park Lawn no-go recommendation ought to get someone fired, IMHO) but easily cuts $500M from the current plan.
- Suspend any ongoing International Design Competitions for ML architecture. Fire ML's Design Review Panel. Restrict new station construction to a design consisting of a few bus shelters on an ashphalt pad. Ensure there are no more John St footbridge boondoggles. Probably good for $50M
- Fire the ML Board (mostly Liberals, after all) and replace it with 2 fewer Board members. Keep Verster, his severance would be pricey and he may prove to have some good ideas now that the Liberals aren't breathing down his neck. That's an intangible saving but it clears the slate.
- Cancel the "Mother of all DBFOM" RFQ's and replace it with a structured, in house decisionmaking process to reach some key decisions where there should be direct accountability by ML (equipment procurement being one, hydrogen vs electric being another). Then tender for actual delivery but not leaving key decisions to the vendor. Consider using government borrowing instead of commercial financing, to get a better interest rate. Easily $100M in lower borrowing costs, and removes contingencies from the bidders' submissions because Ontario accepts the risk, thereby lowering the bid prices. ML's passing the buck to the DBFOM contractor is probably costing us $250M or more because vendors don't accept risk for free.
- Establish a timetable to electrify only two lines: Barrie and UPE. That keeps work flowing on establishing the core infrastructure at Union Station, an EMU maintenance base, and some of the substation infrastructure which is very long lead time to order anyways. Barrie has to be electric because of the commitment to Davenport, and UPE just makes sense. That knocks $1.5B or more off the budget, provides a more sensible easing in of electrification, and demonstrates forward motion. Use diesel for the rest for now, aiming for 15 minute 2WAD.
- Suspend work on all the wayfinding, route number unification, and related overall system planning that is going on in ML. It's mostly navel gazing, is heavily consultant based. Should never have built this ivory tower in the first place. Does anyone care that Oshawa has a Route 1 and Hamilton has a route 1? Ditto signage replacement - GO replaces perfectly good bus stops with new ones because they changed their logo. (Oh, and fire whoever proposed that last branding change)
- Suspend and hold a challenge process to review all current contracts for technical advisors and contingency based engineering. ML has huge slush funds for ad-hoc engineering and consulting. Turn some of the Tories' hard nosed auditors loose on this, looking for justification, results delivered, and value for money.
- Institute a publicly accessible CEO's scorecard similar to TTC's. ML claimed it needed an IT system before it could deliver this. I have seen these systems used, and while pretty, you can spend a lot of time and money putting it in place where a couple interns doing cut and paste of Excell graphs works just fine in the short turn. Let the public interrogate this data until it confesses. Do not accept the fluffy and non-informative responses that ML's people churn out. Restate plans as commitments, performance contract items, targets stating what by when at what cost. None of the 'by 2024, a miracle will have happened and it will all be there' non-specificity to goals and deliverables.

Just some ideas. Note that no routes or projects cut in the process.

- Paul
Excellent post. ML is one glaring instance of where Ford's "efficiencies" might actually be found and realized. Of course, if Ford *really* wants to affect massive savings, albeit it will take a large investment from the Province matched by the Feds....and my view that it would be an excellent case for private participation (perhaps the Investment Bank) is the Bypass (Missing Link Light). That investment alone would enable a lot of other ML projects save a bundle...perhaps even equal to or more than the cost of the Bypass itself.

By announcing that almost immediately, it would allow Ford to kick many other ML projects down the road or into the laps of a *Corporation* of which the Province would be a shareholder, perhaps Feds another, to oversee and plan the GTHA present ML needs in a vastly more efficient and meaningful way.

I can't see doing this without private participation though with the inevitable "We had no idea the books were this bad" excuse to stymie GO expansion.
 
I can't see doing this without private participation though with the inevitable "We had no idea the books were this bad" excuse to stymie GO expansion.

My theory about the whole “anger at elites” phenomenon (which the pundits are waxing poetic about to explain the rise of populism) is that it’s not some huge class vs class tension, but just people who are pissed at politicians and governments (and Wynne especially) blowing them off with meaningless answers to honest and straightforward questions that were asked in good faith. Metrolinx is a glaring example, although there certainly are others.

I look at myself as the kind of person who a proletarian would label as part of this so-called “elite” - older white male, graduate degree, professional level career, government pension, bought a single family house and paid it off before prices got silly - and I’m as pissed as anybody.

I wonder how long before somebody suggests “maybe we should just give them straight answers” in a political caucus or strategy meeting. The speaker would no doubt be ridiculed, or perhaps walked from the building, or even offered a support hotline phone number.... anyways, it sure seems like these elites aren’t doing anything to pull up their socks.

It will be interesting to watch whether Doug offers any actual unvarnished truth, or just plays the kind of self promotion credit taking game that the likes of Trump enjoys. Somewhere, George Orwell is watching, and shaking his head.

- Paul
 
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It's nebulous as to what "the elites" are:
Doug Ford defines elites as ‘drinking champagne with their pinkies in the air’
https://globalnews.ca/video/4078410/doug-ford-defines-the-elites

Doug Ford puts rest of Ontario political elites on notice

By Tasha Kheiriddin. Published on Jan 29, 2018 8:15pm
[...]
The elites of this party, the ones who have shut out the grassroots, do not want me in this race. But I’m here to give a voice… to give a voice to the hardworking taxpayers of this province, people who have been ignored for far too long.”

Ford made this anti-elite announcement, ironically, in the basement of his mother’s sprawling house in Etobicoke, source of the Ford political dynasty which includes his late father (Doug Ford Senior, an MPP from 1995-1999), late brother (Rob Ford, city councilor and then Toronto mayor from 2010-2014), and nephew (Michael Ford, former trustee and currently a councilor in Rob Ford’s former ward of Etobicoke North). Doug himself served and ran unsuccessfully for Mayor in 2014 against John Tory.

In terms of political dynasties, read, elites, the Fords really don’t have much competition in the GTA, or even in Ontario. But that’s not how Ford will depict it. Despite their wealth and influence, the Fords have a family tradition of communing with the common man, and connecting with voters far less fortunate than they.

So who are the elites Ford is referring to? It’s a long list: members of caucus (who didn’t want a leadership vote so close to the election), the party executive (split as to whether they want to hold one anyway, over the opposition of elected members), and the backroom operators and bagmen some accuse of facilitating Brown’s ouster, to install more saleable replacement ahead of the election, for the good of the party, perhaps, but also, for the good of all those who have an interest in seeing the Tories defeat the Liberals this June.

That replacement could take many forms, all of whom also would also be “elite” in Ford’s book: MPP Vic Fedeli, the newly-installed interim leader, who has announced his intention to run for the job; Rod Phillips, former head of Postmedia newspaper chain and candidate in the new riding of Ajax; and Toronto Mayor John Tory, until he demurred this weekend via social media. But one name stands out above others – and in terms of elites, it’s the one most likely in Ford’s sights.

That name is Caroline Mulroney, candidate for the PCs in York-Simcoe. Mulroney is the daughter of a former Prime Minister, a Harvard-educated lawyer, accomplished and well-connected. She delivered a smooth and engaging performance at the last federal Conservative leadership convention, where she served as co-emcee. She is polished, urban and urbane – everything Ford is not – and while little is known about her personal political leanings, she would put a strong female face to the party’s platform, now that Brown’s image can no longer grace its cover. [...]
https://ipolitics.ca/2018/01/29/doug-ford-puts-ontario-elites-notice/

Reducing the equation is impossible, since "elites" are anyone that Ford considers to be more adept and intelligent than he is. Or the "common man".

The conundrum is that if the "elites" didn't run things, they just wouldn't happen. One only has to look at nations which cast out their "elites" to see what happens. Cambodia anyone?

A discussion on P3 or any form of it or other private financing is beyond the grasp of the 'The Ford". This is going to be a massive problem, since Canada is unlike Norway, for instance, with a honking big heritage fund.

But *even in Norway* P3 is alive and well, for good reason. The devil is in the detail as to how it's implemented. Even billionaires will take out mortgages on their houses in many cases. There are benefits to doing so, and Ontario *has* had forms of P3 for transit, Verster talks evermore of how ML must do this.

Where's the conversation on this from the Cons? They have no compunctions labelling their 'enemies' as the elite, when are they going to propose answers?
Public Private Partnerships in Norway - Financing

Historically, the loan-to-asset value ratio in international PPP projects has been high, reaching up to 90 % of total capital expenditure. The remaining 10 % has consisted of equity from private investors. However, the distribution will depend on what type of capital is considered to be the most beneficial in terms of financing costs and risk exposure.

The cost of borrowed capital has been relatively low compared to the required rate of return on equity. However, at a time when banks are more restrictive in granting loans and where it is increasingly more challenging to find loan financing, the way funding is attained may change. At the same time, investments in public infrastructure are normally considered low risk investments. By choosing long-term investments one may expect secure and long-lasting returns. As most investments these days are considered uncertain, investors have good reason to consider infrastructure projects.

Evaluating risk and financing for each project
Still it is important, especially at a time with a turbulent capital market, not to generalize, but to consider the requirements of a PPP for each individual project. Those of us who work as consultants in such projects, often begin by discussing and evaluating financial modeling and optimizing for the individual project. The assessment of risk and financing are generally the main focus of discussions.

In the political debate concerning PPP in Norway, questions have been raised regarding the necessity of a new financial model in Norway outside the public budgets, or whether PPP contracts are desirable in terms of efficiency. When the builder is responsible for the investment and subsequent operation and maintenance of the infrastructure, he has a strong economic incentive to build with high quality in order to minimize the maintenance cost over the contract period.

Possible financial solutions
A possible outcome of the PPP discussion in Norway may be an arrangement with a state owned infrastructure fund, with the purpose of financing Norwegian infrastructure projects. Through such a fund, the government could finance PPP projects through either equity or loan. Another possible outcome is for the government to use its good credit rating to provide a guarantee for private loans, ensuring as low interest as possible for the PPP company as well as reducing the financing cost. The financial part of a PPP contract in Norway may therefore differ from traditional PPP contracts in other countries.
https://www.ey.com/no/no/industries...blic-private-partnerships-in-norway-financing

Of course, anyone understanding what this discussion is about must be "elites"...

Again, one of the glaringly obvious places to start to affect change with an incredibly 'safe' guarantee of investor return on investment is Bypass. I'd like to suggest the entire Missing Link, but that could/can always be the 'upgrade' version once CP can be enticed and cajoled into participating.

IIRC the price bandied in the IBI study was a 'few' $B, let's double that as figures are always lowballed: $5B. That's for the whole Missing Link

In the big scheme of things, and considering it will save more than it costs in the long term, and considering how revolutionary it will be to *Ontario altogether*, especially the 905 Region, it would be an excellent place for the Cons (it's so incredibly beyond Ford himself) to back.

This would be the *Mother Of All Efficiencies*, and majority done with Private Finance with the Feds matching Provincial costs.

But is it too complex for the simple mind of the The Ford, even though the *concept* is incredibly simple compared to the massively complicated multiple alternatives costing multi $B now?

And for the 'non-elites'...just ask CN how *efficient* their York Sub has been since being built?
[...]
The opening of the York Sub led to dramatically less traffic on the portion of the Kingston Sub between Pickering Junction and Union Station in downtown Toronto. This allowed GO Transit to offer passenger trains along this route starting in 1967, on what is today known as the Lakeshore East line. Metrolinx has since purchased this section of the Kingston Sub, which has removed almost all of CN's traffic from the downtown routes. Metrolinx also purchased the Newmarket Sub from CN to operate their Barrie line. The significant amount of traffic on the York Sub led to delays on the Barrie line, backing up at the Snyder diamond. This led to the creation of a new grade-separated bridge to bypass the junction, allowing GO traffic to operate unhindered.[2] Similarly, a grade-separated bridge was built at Hagerman, where the Uxbridge subdivision crosses the York subdivision. This bridge opened for service in December 2008.[3] [...]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CN_York_Subdivision




 
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I know we've discussed this a few posts back, but I found some more info on the proposed upgrades to Exhibition GO, including a detailed PDF outlining the upgrades. My bad if this has already been posted. Link to PDF here.

Of note is the alignment of the future streetcar connection to Dufferin Gates, and how it will interact with the rest of the station.

site-plan-large.jpg
 
In 8 years BMO Field becomes a World Cub venue...with seating increased (either permanently or temporarily) to between 40k and 45k........so the clock on getting the access/egress fixed started this morning around 7 a.m. eastern.

Hopefully by that time ML will have, at least, found the claw hammer to pull down that green hording closing off the 3rd tunnel entrance on the north side.......I can't believe the technical folks from FIFA visited BMO Field on a match night..or they would have noted this tunnel in their report.
 
In 8 years BMO Field becomes a World Cub venue...with seating increased (either permanently or temporarily) to between 40k and 45k........so the clock on getting the access/egress fixed started this morning around 7 a.m. eastern.

Hopefully by that time ML will have, at least, found the claw hammer to pull down that green hording closing off the 3rd tunnel entrance on the north side.......I can't believe the technical folks from FIFA visited BMO Field on a match night..or they would have noted this tunnel in their report.
Remember how TYSSE was initially intended to open for the 2015 Pan Am Games?
 
Remember how TYSSE was initially intended to open for the 2015 Pan Am Games?
I'll go one better...the second subway platform at Union was promised (as part of our hosting bid) to be open prior to the 2008 Summer Olympics regardless of whether we won the bid or not (along with the Front Street extension and one other project which escapes my mind at the moment).
 
I'll go one better...the second subway platform at Union was promised (as part of our hosting bid) to be open prior to the 2008 Summer Olympics regardless of whether we won the bid or not (along with the Front Street extension and one other project which escapes my mind at the moment).
Extension of BD to Mississauga?
 
Extension of BD to Mississauga?
No they were all downtown/near waterfront type projects....Waterfront Toronto was part of the announcement (made from a podium at Front and Bathurst by the Prime Minister, the Premier and the Mayor).
 
Extension of BD to Mississauga?
Will never happen nor should it. as there is no demand for one up to Dixie Rd. To Cloverdale, yes that should happen, but can it be done in 5 years??
 
Extension of BD to Mississauga?

No they were all downtown/near waterfront type projects....Waterfront Toronto was part of the announcement (made from a podium at Front and Bathurst by the Prime Minister, the Premier and the Mayor).

Anyway...the point is 3 levels of government made a promise to the world (that is how it was positioned)....of the 2 projects I can remember...one happened/opened many years after the olympics happened and the other will never happen....our record on these promises/projects is not stellar is the only point I am making.

I still remember working my way back through the tunnel after the 2016 MLS cup beside two Seattle fans trying to get across to Liberty Village (attendance that night was around 36k) and overhearing one of them say to the other "a bit more 3rd worldly than I expected here" (words to that effect...it was a while ago)>
 
I still remember working my way back through the tunnel after the 2016 MLS cup beside two Seattle fans trying to get across to Liberty Village (attendance that night was around 36k) and overhearing one of them say to the other "a bit more 3rd worldly than I expected here" (words to that effect...it was a while ago)>
I got their feeling, but to be fair, is Seattle, or any other American cities except New York, a lot more stellar in terms of public transit?
 
I got their feeling, but to be fair, is Seattle, or any other American cities except New York, a lot more stellar in terms of public transit?
not sure the tunnel is, per se, "public transit".....I am a bit of a sports tourist ....travel around to see sporting events (including Seattle as it happens)....that tunnel is, easily, the worst stadium access/egress I have experienced.

Those people from Seattle (and a lot of people on a nightly basis) are not using the tunnel to get to a train....they are simply headed to Liberty Village to enjoy the city.
 

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