GO 2.0 Expansion Plan

[T-Bor]

You're right, it's even more outlandish. It would be the longest road tunnel in the world by far. Not through mountains, not under a major waterway, but under another highway. With cost overruns that are routine for large infrastructure projects $100 billion is realistic for no benefit. It would make traffic worse all over the city. It would entrench car dependency in the worst way. It's nothing short of idiotic.


Buying back the 407 is also a bad idea - tens of billions of dollars to make the highway worse. As we've seen on the part of the 407 that's now free, eliminating tolls would make it just as congested as the 401. Even just reducing tolls would increase congestion.

I'm not saying good or bad idea, just speculating on what they'll campaign on

My vote would be to toll both the 401 and the 407. But since voters clearly don't want that, I'm predict they'll campaign on buying back the 407

Also, the 407 backs up (I hear) in spots related to where the tolls begin. In theory, if there were no tolls, those particular bottlenecks may not be as bad

 

[innsertnamehere]

Repeating that its feasible does not make it so.

You continue to avoid addressing that the roads that connect to 401 have no surplus capacity to accommodate more traffic to/from said highway, and most cannot be widened. To create such capacity would cost more than the tunnel itself.

Let's see what the traffic engineers say. A LOT of traffic on the 401 is not even exiting in Toronto, and a tunnel is unlikely to even have local accesses to drop traffic in those areas. Most of those new cars will not be commuting to emptying out office parks along the 401 which are increasingly being demolished - they will be longer range trips across the GGH.

I don't believe the 401 tunnel is a good idea.. I've said that from the start - it's wildly expensive for the benefit it would provide when the Province is sitting on dozens of other highway projects around the province and trickle funding them or not funding them at all that have far higher returns on investment in terms of increased mobility. But it's not some impossible fantasy project either. It's possible, will cost less than people portray, and would deliver benefits.. just not proportionate to the level of investment required, IMO.

If it were to be a tolled facility to recoup more of it's costs, it would be easier to support.. but as it stands it will be a wild suck of provincial capital dollars when the rest of the provincial highway network is struggling with underfunding.

The 407 has a valuation north of $40 billion CAD.. The 401 tunnel will most likely be cheaper, and unlike buying back the 407, will actually deliver net new capacity. Dropping $40 billion on the 407 would be an insanely immense waste of money and do nothing for mobility.

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Repeating that its feasible does not make it so.

You continue to avoid addressing that the roads that connect to 401 have no surplus capacity to accommodate more traffic to/from said highway, and most cannot be widened. To create such capacity would cost more than the tunnel itself.

Worth bringing up this cartoon to emphasize that point.

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Let's see what the traffic engineers say. A LOT of traffic on the 401 is not even exiting in Toronto, and a tunnel is unlikely to even have local accesses to drop traffic in those areas.

I don't believe the 401 tunnel is a good idea.. I've said that from the start - it's wildly expensive for the benefit it would provide when the Province is sitting on dozens of other highway projects around the province and trickle funding them or not funding them at all that have far higher returns on investment in terms of increased mobility. But it's not some impossible fantasy project either. It's possible, will cost less than people portray, and would deliver benefits.. just not proportionate to the level of investment required, IMO.

If it were to be a tolled facility to recoup more of it's costs, it would be easier to support.. but as it stands it will be a wild suck of provincial capital dollars when the rest of the provincial highway network is struggling with underfunding.

The 407 has a valuation north of $40 billion CAD.. The 401 tunnel will most likely be cheaper, and unlike buying back the 407, will actually deliver net new capacity. Dropping $40 billion on the 407 would be an insanely immense waste of money and do nothing for mobility.

LOL! You must be smoking some serious herb if you think the Highway 401 tunnel would cost less than buying the 407! By the time you factor in the cost overruns and other similar projects, that tunnel will exceed $100 billion.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

We are getting slightly off topic here...

AoD

 

[innsertnamehere]

I'm not saying good or bad idea, just speculating on what they'll campaign on

My vote would be to toll both the 401 and the 407. But since voters clearly don't want that, I'm predict they'll campaign on buying back the 407

Also, the 407 backs up (I hear) in spots related to where the tolls begin. In theory, if there were no tolls, those particular bottlenecks may not be as bad

The worst spot for congestion on the 407 is between the 427 and 400 - the widest part of the 407 and the part in the middle of the tolled component. That part has 12 lanes and increasingly sees peak hour congestion, especially in summer PM rush. The 407 is not some perpetually empty highway with oodles of excess capacity like many portray, especially during peak rush hour.

If the province wants to see better utilization out of the 407, they should be investigating ways to get 407ETR to lower off-peak toll rates. the highway does have oodles of excess capacity outside of peak rush hour as it stands.

Regardless, the focus in this thread is supposed to be how to focus limited provincial capital dollars. I agree that I would like to see Metrolinx figure out how to deliver GO 1.0 before we go and give them another $30 billion for GO 2.0..

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Regardless, the focus in this thread is supposed to be how to focus limited provincial capital dollars. I agree that I would like to see Metrolinx figure out how to deliver GO 1.0 before we go and give them another $30 billion for GO 2.0..

Nevermind figure out how to deliver GO 1.0 - but very very clearly define what GO 1.0 is in the first place. We're sold multiple things that didn't turn out to be true.

AoD

 

[cplchanb]

Nevermind figure out how to deliver GO 1.0 - but very very clearly define what GO 1.0 is in the first place. We're sold multiple things that didn't turn out to be true.

AoD

1.0??? its more like 0.6 with the amount of value engineering hack and slash the original plan has been subjected to this last year. .

 

[afransen]

LOL! You must be smoking some serious herb if you think the Highway 401 tunnel would cost less than buying the 407! By the time you factor in the cost overruns and other similar projects, that tunnel will exceed $100 billion.

Buying the 407 provides zero incremental capacity. It's tantamount to paying $6000 upfront for every household in Ontario to prepay tolls. Except, when you prepay the tolls and get unlimited usage, the highway will be a parking lot and not worth paying $6000 for every household in Ontario. It's a foolish idea, tolls are a good thing and should be used more widely.

 

[afransen]

If the province wants to see better utilization out of the 407, they should be investigating ways to get 407ETR to lower off-peak toll rates. the highway does have oodles of excess capacity outside of peak rush hour as it stands.

Yes, the advantage of buying the 407 would be to lower off-peak tolls. The current toll regime is probably revenue maximizing but not socially optimal. Tolls off-peak when there is unused capacity should be relatively low, which encourages time-shifting of trips off of peak.

 

[innsertnamehere]

LOL! You must be smoking some serious herb if you think the Highway 401 tunnel would cost less than buying the 407! By the time you factor in the cost overruns and other similar projects, that tunnel will exceed $100 billion.

What other similar projects?

You mean Westconnex, which even after cost overruns cost $18 billion CAD for a 24km tunnel and the most complex underground interchanges on the planet ($750m/km)? Or the Alaskan Way tunnel which despite insane cost overruns and the TBM famously getting stuck and being a wildly overbudget and mismanged project, and including a huge number of add ons (demolition of old highway, high quality landscaping, toll systems, etc.) cost $4 billion CAD ($1.3b/km)?

For the 401 tunnel to cost $100 billion, it would have to 1. be a full 55km tunnel (very unlikely - this is effectively from Milton to Pickering, including many stretches of the 401 which were either literally just widened or do not experience regular congestion) and 2. cost double per km of what comparable projects have cost.

If the 401 tunnel cost similar to other comparable projects (~$1 billion/km) and runs a reasonable, likely length like from the 427 to the 404, it will cost $25-$30 billion. Wildly expensive. A waste of money. But not $100 billion. and not $40+ billion like buying back the 407.

 

[afransen]

Maybe we're forgetting that this is the land of billion dollar/km subway projects.

 

[PL1]

Can we have discussion about Ford's Foolish Tunnel in that thread?

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Back to the GO 2.0 topic, I am curious as to whether this latest reference is only focused on the missing link or are those Midtown and Bolton lines - along with the Milton extension to Cambridge - still in the cards as well? It's interesting how there hadn't been a single mention on Metrolinx's website to the best of my knowledge.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I too am curious about scope.

Assuming "GO 1.0" remains substantially similar to the original promise in, what, 2015.. I would like to see the following in "GO 2.0":

1. Electrified, frequent service past Bramalea out to Kitchener using the recently announced CN "Bypass" track through Brampton
2. Electrified, frequent service on Milton
3. All-day service to Hamilton GO centre with a reconstruction of the Hunter St tunnel
4. electrified, frequent service through to Hamilton West Harbour (fixing Bayview Junction)
5. All-day service to Niagara, likely including the purchase of the CN Grimsby sub
7. Extension of 15-minute electrified service to Stouffville. Peak hour service to Uxbridge.
8. Bolton line - diesel all day service
9. Collingwood extension of GO service?
10. Cambridge extension SW from Guelph