News   May 08, 2024
 178     0 
News   May 07, 2024
 595     0 
News   May 07, 2024
 505     1 

Financial Crisis

Deflation is very bad, prices go lower due to low demand, people know that prices will be lower so they defer purchasing, which feeds back on itself. The only way out is to stimulate the heck out of the economy - which if successful - will lead to a highly inflationary economy - since there are very long odds that the stimulation to the economy can be pulled back at the exact right time. This is why I believe we are looking at a "W" recession. When we first come out of the recession, inflation will come back and the only way to stop the inflation will be higher interest rates - which will throw the economy back into a shorter secondary recession. This is why I think it is time that people focus on reducing their debt now - so that when this hits people will be prepared.
 
Yes, inflation is all WONDERFUL!! Come on, the prices of avarything have been shooting up, while out salaries have not. if it continues, we won't be able to pay anything!

Why do you persist in trying to pose this as an either/or scenario? No one is arguing for any pros to inflation versus deflation.
 
Deflation is very bad, prices go lower due to low demand, people know that prices will be lower so they defer purchasing, which feeds back on itself. The only way out is to stimulate the heck out of the economy - which if successful - will lead to a highly inflationary economy - since there are very long odds that the stimulation to the economy can be pulled back at the exact right time. This is why I believe we are looking at a "W" recession. When we first come out of the recession, inflation will come back and the only way to stop the inflation will be higher interest rates - which will throw the economy back into a shorter secondary recession. This is why I think it is time that people focus on reducing their debt now - so that when this hits people will be prepared.

You make a pretty good textbook argument I found throughout all my macro and micro econ classes back in college, but honestly we need deflation in regards to housing. Housing is one of the key factors in advanced societies and at this juncture the western world has outrageous costs for housing that has put quality housing out of the reach for many.

We need deflation in housing to bring the prices back under control. Houses are an area where I diverge from some typical conservative economists in that housing isn't just an investment, and it shouldn't be day traded and inflated beyond control.

Vancouver is finally seeing price drops and dropped 12% in one month I believe.
 
Deflation is quite different from a drop in house prices.

Deflation in housing is simply a term about dropping housing prices, its obvious by what I already stated that deflation of the overall economy is slightly different.

But every economist knows that housing prices are a large factor, and if housing prices drop tremendously it can trigger overall deflation, not just deflated housing prices.

I thought the statements were pretty clear, but there ya go. Hopefully that's more clear.

Homes should be a place to live first, an investment second. Too often homes are encouraged to be your primary investment and we tend to own homes as investment properties first and a place to live second.
 
It is exactly this kind of poor understanding and half-assed application of economics that scares me. Yes, housing prices do need to decline to more affordable levels. But that is a far cry from macro-economic deflation. And what you are wishing for would have some grave consequences, first among them would be saddling a good chunk of the population with zero or negative equity mortgages. If as you have alluded to, housing has such a large economic impact, we will not be able to deflate housing prices without having knock-on effects throughout the rest of the economy. Be careful what you wish for.....Let's not use such a sensitive word in such a profligate manner. I am sure if you understood the term and its connotations accurately you wouldn't.

Anyway, I for one, don't believe that deflation is a threat....yet. However, the US fed has run out of room to fight deflation if it sets in (short of printing money....). And we in Canada are not far behind. The BoC already has a ridiculously low prime. How much more space we have to fight deflation is questionable. Large fiscal stimulus here and in the US and by governments around the globe is the only way out. Let's see if governments can swallow that kind of medicine.
 
Deflation is very bad, prices go lower due to low demand, people know that prices will be lower so they defer purchasing, which feeds back on itself. The only way out is to stimulate the heck out of the economy - which if successful - will lead to a highly inflationary economy - since there are very long odds that the stimulation to the economy can be pulled back at the exact right time. This is why I believe we are looking at a "W" recession. When we first come out of the recession, inflation will come back and the only way to stop the inflation will be higher interest rates - which will throw the economy back into a shorter secondary recession. This is why I think it is time that people focus on reducing their debt now - so that when this hits people will be prepared.


Unfortunately, this is similar to the scenario we are seeing globally.

With all the inflationary measures from the US and other countries throwing around TRILLIONS of dollars trying to fix the problem, which too much easy money originally caused, we are headed for the likelyhood of STAGflation. :(

Stagflation
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time.[1] The portmanteau "stagflation" is generally attributed to British politician Iain Macleod, who coined the term in a speech to Parliament in 1965.[2][3][4] The concept is notable partly because, in postwar macroeconomic theory, inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive, and also because stagflation has generally proven to be difficult and costly to eradicate once it gets started.

Economists offer two principal explanations for why stagflation occurs. First, stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.[5][6][7] This type of stagflation presents a policy dilemma because most actions to assist with fighting inflation worsen economic stagnation and vice versa. Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply,[8] and the government can cause stagnation by excessive regulation of goods markets and labor markets;[9] together, these factors can cause stagflation.
 
If there was any confusion about what I said, my point was that I believe housing prices need to fall when they get as inflated as the prices are in Vancouver. Its really as simple as that, and hopefully that clears any confusion up. I should have avoided using the word deflation and just talked about the need for lower housing prices, because my comments apparently were misinterpreted.
 
Last edited:
Not all of Canada faces overly high housing prices. Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton are the worst of the bunch. The rest will merely see a year or two of stagnation in housing prices.
 
I don't think Toronto faces any kind of "crash" with respect to housing prices. There is a great degree of variability with respect to price, and some of that depends on location (among other things). I would guess that price increases will not be seen for a while, though.
 
I don't think Toronto faces any kind of "crash" with respect to housing prices. There is a great degree of variability with respect to price, and some of that depends on location (among other things). I would guess that price increases will not be seen for a while, though.

Maybe not on the same scale as Vancouver but Toronto is due for some correction. Affordability stats are starting to hit decade long lows....
 
I don't think Toronto faces any kind of "crash" with respect to housing prices. There is a great degree of variability with respect to price, and some of that depends on location (among other things). I would guess that price increases will not be seen for a while, though.


I wouldn't call it a 'crash'; however TO is due for a 30% price reduction in the coming few years.
 
However prices have crashed big time in Vancouver even with the Olympics...
 
It'll be interesting to see whether this translates into crash as some predict or merely stagnation in prices. In Toronto's case, I suspect that an actual decline in prices may well be necessary.
 

Back
Top