Federal Liberals Gain One, Might Lose One

[spmarshall]

Interesting. I considered Axworthy to be one of the most sincere, decent members of the Chretien Liberals, and would have supported him if he ran for the leadership of the party, as unlike Alan Rock, his campiagn would probably not have been hit by various scandals, like the blood scare, the gun registry and so on (which mostly occured before Rock's involvement, to be fair).

If Layton is able to recruit the left and centre-left heavyweights like Copps and Axworthy, the NDP will be a force to be recokned with, which is needed against the right and righter parties.

Now, hopefully Mills will self-destruct soon.

 

[jamerinbow]

A chunk of the former Progressive Conservative vote will drift to the Liberals because they won't feel comfortable staying with the new Reform/Alliance "Conservative Party". Net result: the collective Right is weaker.

I think it might even be possible (or have already happened) that half of the PC's traditional support would break off and join the Liberals. I'm thinking of that one poll which showed Martin at 58%, the NDP at 17% and "a united party of the right" at 13%. If most PCs view the new Conservative Party of Canada as an Alliance takeover (very likely, if Harper wins the leadership), they will have little incentive to vote that way. The Alliance never really worked with the PCs, so what benefit is there in working for them, especially when there's a PM across the way who is looking pretty PC himself.

Certainly the movement of MPs highlights this. Two Conservative MPs have left for the Liberals. None have gone the other way.

...James

 

[ganjavih]

"I'm thinking of that one poll which showed Martin at 58%, the NDP at 17% and "a united party of the right" at 13%."

Wow... is this for real? That's encouraging.

Spmarshall, Axworthy may be a centre-left heavyweight (I like him a lot)... but Copps? :b

 

[jamerinbow]

It's gone back and forth, so it's hard to say. I've heard rumours of another poll which suggests that the united right has actually resulted in a significant increase in support for the Liberals (precisely for the reasons I mentioned above). All of our data is about a month old, now, so I'm eager to see what the new polls show.

Even a more conservative poll showed Martin's Liberals leading in every province in Canada except Alberta. The NDP have 22% in the west, the Liberals have 50% in Atlantic Canada.

Well, say what you like about Jack Layton; in the past month, he has still managed to create more buzz about the NDP than they've had since 1993. Indeed, he's managed to create more buzz about his party than previous attempts to unite the right ever had. It's going to be an interesting election.

...James

 

[GeekyBoyTO]

Indeed, Lloyd Axworthy would be an excellent leader - I wonder if Layton is up to the task of recruiting him though...

GB

 

[jamerinbow]

Lloyd Axworthy has only just accepted the position as president of the University of Winnipeg, so he's unavailable to run. However, Layton has said that he will be consulting with Axworthy in setting up NDP policy for the next election. Hmm...

...James

 

[unimaginative2]

Keith Martin's quite a coup that's been a very long time in coming. Let's hope the good folks of Esquimault-Juan de Fuca support his change of heart.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bloc picked up a few seats, or at least held on to most of the ones they already had. I expect them to pick up some votes because of the backlash against the Charest "Liberals" spending cuts.

Many have said that Layton is a very impressive debater, though the Liberals have certainly upgraded their debating skills with their new leader. As well, the NDP has had many leaders with impressive oratorical skills in the past. Some have suggested, though, that his style plays better to a small, community centre-style municipal debate than to a large televise audience. If he wants to win a very significant number of seats, he has to portray himself as a deadly serious, centrist candidate. Bob Rae appeared in the leaders' debate well-dressed and completely credible. Instead of a representative from the loony left, people saw an excellent alternative to the Liberals. Recruiting big names from other parties is an excellent step, but Layton must make sure that he doesn't come off as shrill or hysterical.

 

[spmarshall]

I have noticed that Keith Martin supports two-tier healthcare, something that is unpopular with the majority of Canadians (which is why the Alliance has been quiet about health recently).

I have also found that Paul Martin really doesn't speak that well, especially when not speaking from a script. Jack Layton is far more smooth with his oral language skills. Not that the ability to speak really well should be a requirement, but it is something I've noticed.

Wasn't Axworthy to be president of University of Manitoba, not U of W?

 

[jamerinbow]

Sorry, U of M. My bad.