Fate of the SRT

[scarberiankhatru]

Well I suppose if you mean speeding up the trip for some of those that already have RT, at the expense of many who don't - and even some who already do, given that you'll be ditching 3 RT stops en-route.

Some? More like 99% of trips. There's maybe a few hundred people that wouldn't derive noticeable benefit from a subway extension, compared with tens of thousands (most RT riders) that wouldn't benefit from keeping the RT. At the expense of many who don't? Are you referring to the many dozens of people that might take the RT between Malvern and Bellamy? Tens of thousands versus tens...yeah, that's comparable.

However, your point, rightly or wrongly, has been made - why you haven't stopped highjacking threads left, right, centre, and green on this I don't know. It's not like your opinion will change the outcome of what happens.

If hijacking a thread means answering keithz's questions and clearing up the near-misinformation you're wont to spread, then, yes, I hijacked this thread.

Public opinion can change outcomes...public opinion has been utterly ignored in the case of the RT, though.

 

[Anth]

However, your point, rightly or wrongly, has been made - why you haven't stopped highjacking threads left, right, centre, and green on this I don't know. It's not like your opinion will change the outcome of what happens.

Highjacking? I see it as mythbusting and neutralizing the high level of facepalm in these threads with rationality. If anything, he's helping to keep this place readable and I appreciate it.

 

[nfitz]

Highjacking? I see it as mythbusting and neutralizing the high level of facepalm in these threads with rationality. If anything, he's helping to keep this place readable and I appreciate it.

Perhaps I've seen far to many of his absurd claims and biased interpretations to have noticed that the clock is correct once a day.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

I don't see why an LRT line from STC to Malvern Town Centre should cost more than $200M, provided they run it along the old rail corridor between Progress and Neilson (I'm sure they'll try to look for some road to run down the middle of), the Progress bridge can handle getting tracks added (auto lanes could be reduced to one wide lane in each direction), and the connection at STC is kept simple (there's quite a few options). Add the subway extension and you get roughly $1.4B, compared to $1.3B for just the RT. This small difference of perhaps $100M is absolutely trivial when you weigh it against the vastly improved travel patterns offered by a subway extension.

The line should be run along Corporate Drive rather than just Progress...a good option would be Progress to Corporate to Consilium to Grangeway to Bushby to Town Centre, with the connection to a subway station getting built on the parking lot between the federal building and the YMCA (this site could then be turned into a central library above the streetcar loop).

Perhaps I've seen far to many of his absurd claims and biased interpretations to have noticed that the clock is correct once a day.

Yes, it is about once per day that your statements need correcting

 

[Dan416]

I don't see why an LRT line from STC to Malvern Town Centre should cost more than $200M, provided they run it along the old rail corridor between Progress and Neilson (I'm sure they'll try to look for some road to run down the middle of), the Progress bridge can handle getting tracks added (auto lanes could be reduced to one wide lane in each direction), and the connection at STC is kept simple (there's quite a few options). Add the subway extension and you get roughly $1.4B, compared to $1.3B for just the RT. This small difference of perhaps $100M is absolutely trivial when you weigh it against the vastly improved travel patterns offered by a subway extension.

The line should be run along Corporate Drive rather than just Progress...a good option would be Progress to Corporate to Consilium to Grangeway to Bushby to Town Centre, with the connection to a subway station getting built on the parking lot between the federal building and the YMCA (this site could then be turned into a central library above the streetcar loop).



Yes, it is about once per day that your statements need correcting

You mean twice per day, since a broken analog clock is right twice a day.

 

[kEiThZ]

Scarberian,

How do you figure 1.4 billion?

Using the Danforth routing, the subway will be approximately 6km long. The RT extension to MTC is about 5.5 km long using Hydro corridor across the Chinese Cultural Centre.

Using these numbers:

http://lrt.daxack.ca/LRTvsHRT/CostCompare.html (Yes, he is advocating LRT, but his numbers are still spot on imo, he is using TTC's own numbers I believe)

That would add up to the following:

Subway: 6km x 250 million/km = 1.5 billion
LRT from STC to MTC: 5.5 km x 40 million/km: 220 million

Total: 1.72 billion
TTC SRT extension estimate: 1.2 billion (http://www.toronto.ca/involved/projects/scarborough_rapid_transit/faq.htm#q19)

So that would put the difference in the 500 million ball park at best, with total cost ranging from at least 1.7 billion to maybe around 1.75 billion. I guess changing the subway route might cut a km off, bringing total costs down to 1.5 billion which would still yield a difference of at least 300 million. Given that infrastructure cost inflation is running well about normal inflation, 250 million/km is surely a good estimate for subway construction costs. I assumed 40 million is a good estimate for LRT construction, which is below the cost of the Scarborough Malvern LRT and the Sheppard East LRT, since they would be using a dedicated ROW which would lower their costs.

Now I still think its the way to go, but at 300 million to half a billion more, the TTC might not feel that its worthwhile. I feel that the TTC is rushing to build a bunch of lines before 2020 to fit in to MO2020 just so they can say they accomplished something in every neighbourhood in the city. Instead, they could have drawn out their timeline to 2025, kept the same rate of annual expenditure, and done projects like extending the BD line to STC and using heavy rail instead of LRT on the Eglinton Crosstown.

Another question. You were suggesting that an LRT replacement for the RT should be routed down Corporate - Consilium -Grangeway - Bushby and on to STC. Can the proposed light rail make those kinds of sharp turns? I assumed they werent as maneuverable as streetcars. And will it result in a slower average speed for the route as a result? What you are proposing makes sense though.....

 

[Rainforest]

Rainforest

TTC SRT extension estimate: 1.2 billion (http://www.toronto.ca/involved/projects/scarborough_rapid_transit/faq.htm#q19)

I doubt the accuracy of that estimate. Until a few months ago, the SRT extension was expected to end at Sheppard and Markham Rd, and quoted at 1.1 billion.

Of those, 390 million were for the upgrade of existing line, leaving 710 million for the new section from McGowan station just to Sheppard and Markham. The latter probably includes the yard upgrade, but nevertheless I doubt that they get from Sheppard and Markham to MTC for just 100 million. ICTS costs more than LRT. 300 million for that section looks like a realistic estimate, and so is 1.4 billion for the whole thing.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

How do you figure 1.4 billion?.........So that would put the difference in the 500 million ball park at best, with total cost ranging from at least 1.7 billion to maybe around 1.75 billion.

Another question. You were suggesting that an LRT replacement for the RT should be routed down Corporate - Consilium -Grangeway - Bushby and on to STC. Can the proposed light rail make those kinds of sharp turns? I assumed they werent as maneuverable as streetcars. And will it result in a slower average speed for the route as a result? What you are proposing makes sense though.....

What sharp turns? These are suburban roads with enormous ROWs. Other Transfer City lines might get built with similar turns.

Yeah, $1.2B for a subway through Brimley & Lawrence, which is the alignment they'd probably use (it's certainly the only one the TTC even acknowledges). This figure is easily arrived using either Sheppard or the Spadina extension as a base of reference. Subtract the "contingency" from the Spadina extension and we get a shade under $250M/km...but if we use the still-bloated Spadina figure, we can probably knock off over $100M just due to having fewer stations, bringing the Danforth extension down closer to $1.1B. An unlikely Danforth or Midland alignment would get down to or under $1.4B for the same reason. Finch West, 407, and VCC stations are all projected to cost $100M each, with Steeles West at $125M (Sheppard West is at $65M and York U is at $90M). An extra $400M in station costs has an impact on the per/km figure, even after adjusting for length. Other Spadina costs like Wilson yard modifications and $125M of property and miscellaneous could be removed, too, but a Danforth extension could similar associated costs.

The RT reno and extension has been estimated as at least $1.3B...I don't think a final estimate of the renovation + extension + vehicles to Malvern Town Centre has been released yet. There's really no way to arrive at a "500 million ball park" using known figures; even $300M is stretching it.

 

[kEiThZ]

What sharp turns? These are suburban roads with enormous ROWs. Other Transfer City lines might get built with similar turns.

...

There's really no way to arrive at a "500 million ball park" using known figures; even $300M is stretching it.

Thanks for clarifying my questions.....

The lower the price differential the better the case. I have emailed the public consultation and some TTC person pledged to answer my question. I hope you've done the same! Maybe we can get together on UT and draft a detailed petition for this....

As for the vehicles, I haven't seen light rail trains make 90 degree turns (in Europe anyway) at stoplights....I've seen trams/streetcars do it. So I was just wondering if that is possible with a street grade LRT. Also, would these turns significantly slow down service? Your preferred routing makes a good point. But I wouldn't want a complicated route if it slowed the LRT down to bus type of speeds.....

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Why would a couple turns (that aren't tight) slow them down more than a few seconds? It's not turning every 50 feet. If such turns were impossible they wouldn't have been presented as options for multiple other Transfer City lines.

 

[kEiThZ]

Why would a couple turns (that aren't tight) slow them down more than a few seconds? It's not turning every 50 feet. If such turns were impossible they wouldn't have been presented as options for multiple other Transfer City lines.

Got it. Thanks. I guess I perceived the turns to be tight for an LRT. I was thinking of turns like Progress - Corporate.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

The RT reno + extension is now estimated to cost $1.715 billion:
http://www.ttc.ca/postings/gso-comr...3672/2009_Capital_Budget__CR_Final_Aug_27.pdf

This means that, yes, a subway extension plus an LRT line to Malvern would be cheaper.

 

[kEiThZ]

The RT reno + extension is now estimated to cost $1.715 billion:
http://www.ttc.ca/postings/gso-comr...3672/2009_Capital_Budget__CR_Final_Aug_27.pdf

This means that, yes, a subway extension plus an LRT line to Malvern would be cheaper.

Now their own numbers show that they are definitely making a mistake. I can't believe this. What an egregious waste of transit dollars.

 

[officedweller]

Here's the quote from the report:

Scarborough Rapid Transit - the TTC’s plans for conversion of the existing SRT line ($254 million) and replacement of the existing fleet of SRT cars ($221 million) could be combined with the MoveOntario 2020 initiative to extend the SRT line into the Malvern community ($1.24 billion) for a total combined project in the order of $1.7 billion.

...

The Scarborough RT

The SRT has been operating at capacity during rush hour for several years, with supplementary bus service in place to attempt to handle the growth. In addition, the existing Mark I cars, which began service in 1985, are nearing the end of their useful life. As the Mark I is no longer available, it is intended that new cars be purchased to replace the existing fleet and expand service to accommodate ridership growth ($221 million). It is expected the new vehicles will be marginally larger than existing vehicles, so the scope will include the necessary modifications to the existing infrastructure ($254 million). It is anticipated that these state-of-good-repair projects will be combined with the MoveOntario 2020 Rapid Transit Program initiative to extend the existing line to the vicinity of Malvern Town Centre ($1.240 billion including vehicles).
o The Environmental Assessment (EA) process for the extension of the Scarborough RT is ongoing. The work includes an amendment to the EA that was approved in 1994 for an extension of this line from McCowan Road to Sheppard Avenue, as well as a Municipal Class EA for an extension of the line from Sheppard Avenue to Malvern Town Centre. A number of public meetings have been held to date and it is forecast that a preferred alignment will be presented to the public in early winter. Completion of the EA is planned for late 2008.
o Work is ongoing for the development of design alternatives for Kennedy Station, which will now include the Scarborough RT, two planned Transit City light rail lines, and the subway and bus services. Also underway is the structural analysis of the existing Scarborough RT infrastructure, as well as the development of conceptual designs for a new maintenance facility.
o Discussions are also ongoing with Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario to evaluate alternate funding and procurement opportunities.
o Completion is forecast for 2015 - 2016.

 

[doady]

Extension to Malvern by itself costs $1.24 billion? That's crazy, not much cheaper than subway, if at all.