Multi-step point/question:
- the main argument for the subway extension over LRT is that people shouldn't be forced to make a long, multi-level transfer from LRT to the subway at Kennedy
- the reason people would want to make that transfer is that people are trying to get downtown
- by far the fastest route downtown from Kennedy would be taking the GO Train (19 minutes) rather than subway (38 minutes), but it doesn't come frequently enough
- but it will come every 6-10 minutes based on Smart Track
- ok, but GO costs more than TTC
- but the Liberal platform calls for all GO trips within the 416 to match TTC fares, and the PCs aren't talking about scrapping that
So by the time the Scarborough subway extension is set to open, you would already have a faster (by double) way to get downtown on an electrified GO RER train that costs the same fare as sitting on the TTC. And if you want to go to mid-downtown, you can transfer onto the Relief Line at East Harbour.
So why would you care if you were able to get to Kennedy slightly faster, if you're already going to transfer off the subway anyway?
1. The main problem here is the great uncertainty of the Smart Track frequency. They'd like it to be every 6-10 minutes. But the underlying investment in the capacity of the Union Rail Corridor, the Union Station itself, and the approaching Lakeshore East tracks hasn't been made on the full scale, and isn't even in the works.
Without that, Smart Track will have to compete for track time with:
- Long-haul trains to Montreal and Ottawa
- Lakeshore East commuter service
- Markham - Lincolnville commuter service
- Occasional freight trains
As a result, we don't know if 6-10 min is actually feasible for SmartTrack. And that means, not only longer wait times, but capacity limitations as well. We might end up in a situation where the majority of riders transferring at Kennedy still have to transfer to the subway, rather than Smart Track, because the latter has no room for them.
The cost of truly upgrading the rail corridor and the Union station to sustain the service level seen in the most advanced East Asian or European cities, is far greater than the difference in cost between the Scarborough Subway and the Scarborough LRT.
2. The subway connects to more destinations than Smart Track. Not just downtown, but areas around Bloor and around the Spadina branch of Line 1.
Btw, the subway travel time to downtown will be less than 38 min once the Relief Line is build; more like 30-32 min. And, the Smart Track travel time will increase somewhat with more stations added, and will be like 25 min instead of 19. So, Smart Track still would be good if it was frequent enough, but won't be dramatically faster than the subway option.