Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension

[syn]

I still am not convinced how replacing the 6-station RT and by-passing four of those stations with a subway is a good idea? How are the people near Lawrence East, Ellesmere and Midland RT stations better served if the subway goes straight past them?

I can only hope there is a long term plan to add back 2-3 of those RT stations once funding is available, with a final loop created with the Sheppard line in the 2030s. Otherwise, I'll never understand why we couldn't simply replace the RT vehicles with the same or modified version of the Eglinton Crosstown vehicles, and run them on the existing RT infrastructure, modified where necessary.

It's not a good idea. The entire plan is politically motivated and based on identity politics. It's worse than what's already in place now.

 

[Rainforest]

Metrolinx managed to elevate the entire Pearson section of the UPX so I don't see the problem here. The ST proposal is a subway/Metro and it's ridership will increase exponentially especially with TTC fares requiring far higher frequencies. Remember when ML says RER will run each way/all day every 15 minutes or better that 15 means Sunday nights but daytime frequencies will have to be much higher.

As I said, many cities have suburban/RER/S0-Bahn type rail systems that carry more passengers than their standard Metro system does especially cities with relatively new systems where the new metros are simply building upon the current infrastructure like RER is doing. This will be the case for Toronto as well in less than 40 years.

They would need a much greater investment in the Union Rail Corridor to support that kind of frequencies. Even the model I described above, with a train every 15 min to STC, and presumably another train every 15 min to the Mulliken Stn (Steeles) and Markham, would be a bit challenging to manage with the current layout of the Union Rail Corridor. At least as a temporary measure, shuttles between STC and Kennedy filling the gaps would be essential if they chose this path.

UPX trains are not comparable to ST. UPX uses fairly small trains, their high fares prevent overloading. At the regular TTC price, or even a small premium, the demand would skyrocket and the UPX trains would become inadequate. Bigger trains mean more robust guideways. I'm not saying that's not possible to build, just that there are legitimate technical concerns that would have to be analyzed.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's not a good idea. The entire plan is politically motivated and based on identity politics. It's worse than what's already in place now.

Who’s political capital is at risk though? Isn’t the subway’s biggest political supporter a rotting crackhead?

 

[OneCity]

Who’s political capital is at risk though? Isn’t the subway’s biggest political supporter a rotting crackhead?

No. Its actually the majority of people who live here that support the subway. Anyway in response to your other post.

Id estimate somewhere around 95% of Scarborough residents care less about the low ridership Midland and Ellesmere RT stops. In the overall landscape of Scarborough they are in very poor locations to receive transit stops and are more of an impedance to those except the tiny amount which surround the stations. Lawrence is receiving a Smarttrack stop and hopefully further east a subway stop in a more optimal central location when the dust settles after the election(s) and the opposition realizes its not only supported it actually getting built. The same overwhelming majority of Scarborough residents likely heavily support the hospital stop at Lawrence as a much more common sense stop location. If we are building a tunnel for the future its terrible City planning to not have any stops over 6km thru the heart of the area and more important a hospital stop.

The Scarborough Centre stop is also essentially 2 stops: One end of the terminal is at McCowan and the other feeds into the City Centre. The loss of Lawrence is a problem for now and is a coin flip at City hall and likely a much higher probability its built if the Province takes over

 

[syn]

The project is still within the funding envelope. No reason to panic:

1) The same article states that consultants found up to $283 million in the possible savings.

2) Out of the new costs, 1/3 are either out-of-scope or optional:

- $11 million for wider sidewalks and street furniture: irrelevant for the subway and must not be included in the project
- $14 million for the platform edge doors: optional, as the rest of TTC subway stations have no such doors, nor will the ECLRT stations
- $200 million reserve for "scope changes": no scope changes must be allowed unless the council explicitly approves them with additional funding
- $305 million for contingency fund: required
- $40 million for construction financing: probably required
- $15 million for advisory fees: required

Actual new costs: $360 million (last three lines combined). Less the possible savings: 360 - 283 = $77 million.

New total cost estimate: $3.350 billion + $77 million = $3.427 billion. Still within the funding envelope.

Assuming street furniture includes things like benches, I'd hardly say it's irrelevant.

Scope changes are a reality in these kinds of projects, especially one that has already seen the cost escalate 67% from the initial $2 billion to $3.35 billion in just over a year, along with the difficulties in building in this particular area. Looking at recent, major transit projects in the city (such as the Spadina Extension) should make it quite clear that not accounting for these possibilities in the budget would be incredibly foolish.

There are also costs not listed in The Star article:

https://stevemunro.ca/2017/03/03/scarborough-subway-cost-rises-again-ii/

• Procurement costs through Infrastructure Ontario: $15 million
• Financing costs of a 3P project, net to TTC: $40 million
• SRT Life Extension: $132 million
• SRT Decommissioning and Demolition: $123 million

I'd also like to see an analysis of the $283 million in 'savings'. This is the only analysis I could find, and I'm not sure it's referring to the same list of savings. The ones listed certainly don't add up to $283 million.

https://stevemunro.ca/2017/03/16/scarborough-subway-cost-rises-again-iii/

 

[syn]

Who’s political capital is at risk though? Isn’t the subway’s biggest political supporter a rotting crackhead?

Pretty much everyone in power.

Ford poisoned the idea of anything but a subway in Scarborough, by lying about the nature of LRTs while suggesting that they 'deserved' subways like downtown.

That's why no matter how ridiculously the cost balloons, Tory still supports the subway. He can't turn back now. He's more like the Ford's than we think, unfortunately.

I get what you're saying though - if everyone simply put their foot down and did what was responsible, we wouldn't be discussing what's likely to be a $5 billion, one-stop extension when it's all said and done.

 

[syn]

Or what's the cost of transferring from the Scarborough Centre subway stop to the bus terminal, and how does that compare the the LRT?

There was once a time where the Spadina Line to 510 Spadina Streetcar was arguably the worst transfer in the system, but with the TYSSE that's no longer the case. The TYSSE stations have enormous vertical elevations that passengers need to navigate to get to surface level buses. I timed the transfer at Steeles West Station, and it took me over two minutes to walk from the bus terminal to the subway platform. And now consider that Scarborough Centre station will be deeper than Steeles West Station, and that the horizontal walking distance from the bus terminal to the station box will also be greater than at Steeles West. Passengers could be facing a 2.5 min to 3 min walk between the subway and bus at Scarborough Centre. The proposed STC station design is stupid, and will certainly be worse than even the existing Line 2 to SRT transfer at Kennedy.

Likewise, what is the cost of walking from the subway platform to the town centre, and how does that compare to the LRT?

Now I'm not saying the transfer at STC Station will be slower than the total transfer time for the LRT, BUT the stupid design of STC station will eliminate a lot of the supposed time savings that the elimination of the transfer at Kennedy was supposed to provide in the first place. With the transfer from subway to LRT taking about 0.5 mins, the wait time for the LRT being about 2.5 to 3 mins, and the transfer from LRT to bus taking another 0.5 mins, the total time spent transferring on the LRT would've been about 3.5 to 5 mins (I'm adding an extra minute to the upper bounds to be conservative). With the transfer from subway to bus at Scarborough Centre taking 2.5 to 3 mins, most of the supposed time benefits from eliminating the transfer have been erased.

Excellent points.

Walking to the RT right now is quite easy - it could of course be more accessible, but I don't find it any worse than switching lines on the subway, or getting off at a station to transfer to a streetcar.

The absurd bus terminal they have to devise to accommodate this plan is probably going to make things worse for a lot of people, not better.

If the subway and terminal are built, I'm sure we'll start hearing a lot more appreciation for the RT.

 

[BurlOak]

Pretty much everyone in power.

Ford poisoned the idea of anything but a subway in Scarborough, by lying about the nature of LRTs while suggesting that they 'deserved' subways like downtown.

That's why no matter how ridiculously the cost balloons, Tory still supports the subway. He can't turn back now. He's more like the Ford's than we think, unfortunately.

I get what you're saying though - if everyone simply put their foot down and did what was responsible, we wouldn't be discussing what's likely to be a $5 billion, one-stop extension when it's all said and done.

Ford demanded that transit not interfere with traffic - he even accepted LRT on Eglinton.

It was Wynne and the Liberals that demanded subway, and got their minions on City Council to bring in the plan back when Ford was toothless.

Tory just doesn't have the courage to lead an alternate plan against a Liberal government that is still somehow popular in Toronto.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Ford demanded that transit not interfere with traffic - he even accepted LRT on Eglinton.

It was Wynne and the Liberals that demanded subway, and got their minions on City Council to bring in the plan back when Ford was toothless.

Tory just doesn't have the courage to lead an alternate plan against a Liberal government that is still somehow popular in Toronto.

Then ford was full of shit when he got his Scarborough subway because the LRT would not have interfered with traffic.

 

[OneCity]

Then ford was full of shit when he got his Scarborough subway because the LRT would not have interfered with traffic.

Well not really. His biggest bone of contention was Sheppard both for the transfer and YES that it would have interfered with traffic. He also went after Eglinton as YES it would have and now will interfere with traffic. Matlow and the Left media tried to zone in on the Scarborough Centre LRT as it did not impede traffic to discount this notion in the overall plan. Funny they picked out the one line that Ford actually agreed to be LRT and was recommended by Metrolinx over Millers LRT. There are many posts here going on the about Eglinton West LRT for grade separation concerns but have been silent of the Crosstown portion past Don Mills to the East which will reduce lanes in cause problems at intersection in an already backed-up junction and residents have had their concerns ignored completely aside from Ford and then rejected.

Both the LRT to the City Centre and Sheppard were "Transfer City" in Fords plan. This was the other concern in a large area populated by lower income residents which already has a unfair image and already has an isolated piece of transit infrastructure to its Centre which has been a complete failure in many ways. We are building seamless connection and subway to the City Centres for the rich but there is a war to prevent it for the lower class. Not full of Shit. Again his politics were spot on to how people felt.

Sure the Tory one stop subway on the expensive corridor is not the right approach. Although its spun as such Ford and his supporters and even many Tory supports who wanted better than Transit City did not ask for this. But the Opposition hacks rejected all other options and refused to get off their hacked in LRT plan which had many short sighted details within. Id personally support Tory in the midst of this climate just to get the Scarborough Centre seamlessly connected and the Eglinton East LRT moving forward even with lanes reductions and traffic chaos as there is no way Scarborough can get its voices heard to review anything in detail. For god sakes we have Transit rich councilors and politically affiliated special interest groups in elephant suits showing up to our town hall meetings for theatrical media photo ops, and articles in hopes to talk over the people voices and keep the transit discussion dumbed down. We have way too many voices being talked over in this City and its been called out, doubling down wont help going forward. This is something York region or no other City has to deal with and why they actually and also why Ford will remain very relevant.


Our NDP Malvern councilor Neethan Shan says it best in regard to Matlow and media friends:
"Sure please keep talking at us in #ScarbTO from down there.. maybe it's time to do a value for people assessment in our city.. who speaks for who and who is silenced.. Thanks @metromorning #power #privilege"

 

[BurlOak]

Well not really. His biggest bone of contention was Sheppard both for the transfer and YES that it would have interfered with traffic. He also went after Eglinton as YES it would have and now will interfere with traffic. Matlow and the Left media tried to zone in on the City Centre LRT as it did not impede traffic to discount this notion in the overall plan. Funny they picked out the one line the Ford actually agreed to be LRT. There are many posts here going on the about Eglinton West LRT for grade separation concerns but have been silent of the Crosstown portion past Don Mills to the East which will reduce lanes in cause problems at intersection in an already backed-up junction and residents have had their concerns ignored completely aside from Ford and then rejected

I never thought about it, but you are 100% correct.

 

[Voltz]

Well not really. His biggest bone of contention was Sheppard both for the transfer and YES that it would have interfered with traffic. He also went after Eglinton as YES it would have and now will interfere with traffic. Matlow and the Left media tried to zone in on the City Centre LRT as it did not impede traffic to discount this notion in the overall plan. Funny they picked out the one line the Ford actually agreed to be LRT. There are many posts here going on the about Eglinton West LRT for grade separation concerns but have been silent of the Crosstown portion past Don Mills to the East which will reduce lanes in cause problems at intersection in an already backed-up junction and residents have had their concerns ignored completely aside from Ford and then rejected.

Both the LRT to the City Centre and Sheppard were "Transfer City" in Fords plan. This was the other concern in a a large are populated by lower income residents and has a unfair image. We are building seamless connection and subway to the City Centres for the rich but there is a war to prevent it for the lower class. Not full of Shit. Again his politics were spot on to how people felt.

Sure the Tory one stop subway on the expensive corridor is not the right approach. Ford and his supporters and even many Tory supports who wanted better than Transit City did not ask for this. But the Opposition hacks rejected all other options and refused to get off their hacked in LRT plan which had many short sighted details within. Id personally support Tory in the midst of this climate just to get the City Centre connected and the Eglinton East moving forward even with lanes reductions and traffic chaos as there is no way Scarborough can get its voices heard to review anything in detail. For god sake we have Transit rich councilors and affiliated special interest groups in Elephant suits showing up to our town hall meetings in hope to talk over the people voices and keep the transit discussion dumbed down. We have way too many voice being talked over in this City and its been called out, doubling down wont help going forward. This is something York region or no other City has to deal with and why they actually and also why Ford will remain very relevant.

Our NDP Malvern councilor Neethan Shan says it best in regard to Matlow and media friends :
"Sure please keep talking at us in #ScarbTO from down there.. maybe it's time to do a value for people assessment in our city.. who speaks for who and who is silenced.. Thanks @metromorning #power #privilege"

Whatever, Ford voted for that subway, he owns it, and he was largely given credit for it.

And I am struggling to find a response to Shan's tweet that agreed with him.

 

[BurlOak]

Whatever, Ford voted for that subway, he owns it, and he was largely given credit for it.

And I am struggling to find a response to Shan's tweet that agreed with him.

Ahead of Ford, you can give credit for the SSE to:
Glen Murray,
Brad Duguid,
Mitzi Hunter,
Kathleen Wynne,
Karen Stintz,
Glen DeBaermaker,
Steven Del Duca

 

[Rainforest]

Assuming street furniture includes things like benches, I'd hardly say it's irrelevant.

Most of other TTC subway stations have no benches at the street level. Perhaps they are nice to have, but they are not needed for transit and must not be costed as a part of transit project.

Scope changes are a reality in these kinds of projects, especially one that has already seen the cost escalate 67% from the initial $2 billion to $3.35 billion in just over a year, along with the difficulties in building in this particular area. Looking at recent, major transit projects in the city (such as the Spadina Extension) should make it quite clear that not accounting for these possibilities in the budget would be incredibly foolish.

That's not scope change, that's cost escalation within the same scope. Already included in the "extra costs" we counted: $305 million.

There are also costs not listed in The Star article:

https://stevemunro.ca/2017/03/03/scarborough-subway-cost-rises-again-ii/

• Procurement costs through Infrastructure Ontario: $15 million

OK, + $15 million.

• Financing costs of a 3P project, net to TTC: $40 million

Already listed in the TorStar article you referenced.

• SRT Life Extension: $132 million

Not sure about this one, but suspect it is funded separately since the Mk-I trains have been refurbished already. If we were to return to LRT plan, the city would have to pay for the massive amount of shuttle buses during the replacement, so that's not actually a subway-specific cost.

• SRT Decommissioning and Demolition: $123 million

As explicitly mentioned in the TorStar article you referenced, that's included in the $3.35 billion cost: "The $3.35 billion estimate covers construction of the subway tunnel, new station, associated infrastructure, including a new bus terminal on Triton Rd. at the Scarborough Town Centre, and the decommissioning of the existing Scarborough RT."

I'd also like to see an analysis of the $283 million in 'savings'. This is the only analysis I could find, and I'm not sure it's referring to the same list of savings. The ones listed certainly don't add up to $283 million.

https://stevemunro.ca/2017/03/16/scarborough-subway-cost-rises-again-iii/

We'll see later how much of those savings actually materialize. Based on the TorStar article, those "savings" numbers are as good as the "extra cost" number they listed.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Meanwhile,
The Most Expensive Mile
of Subway Track on Earth
How excessive staffing, little competition, generous contracts and
archaic rules dramatically inflate capital costs for transit in New York.

See link.

An accountant discovered the discrepancy while reviewing the budget for new train platforms under Grand Central Terminal in Manhattan.

The budget showed that 900 workers were being paid to dig caverns for the platforms as part of a 3.5-mile tunnel connecting the historic station to the Long Island Rail Road. But the accountant could only identify about 700 jobs that needed to be done, according to three project supervisors. Officials could not find any reason for the other 200 people to be there.

“Nobody knew what those people were doing, if they were doing anything,” said Michael Horodniceanu, who was then the head of construction at the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs transit in New York. The workers were laid off, Mr. Horodniceanu said, but no one figured out how long they had been employed. “All we knew is they were each being paid about $1,000 every day.”

The discovery, which occurred in 2010 and was not disclosed to the public, illustrates one of the main issues that has helped lead to the increasing delays now tormenting millions of subway riders every day: The leaders entrusted to expand New York’s regional transit network have paid the highest construction costs in the world, spending billions of dollars that could have been used to fix existing subway tunnels, tracks, trains and signals.

The estimated cost of the Long Island Rail Road project, known as “East Side Access,” has ballooned to $12 billion, or nearly $3.5 billion for each new mile of track — seven times the average elsewhere in the world. The recently completed Second Avenue subway on Manhattan’s Upper East Side and the 2015 extension of the No. 7 line to Hudson Yards also cost far above average, at $2.5 billion and $1.5 billion per mile, respectively...

Something to remember, maybe even bookmark.