So I was reading this this morning:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...mprovements-over-three-years/article30482822/
We've been debating on the old funding model. With the new model, the Feds should pay for half the cost once it's shovel ready, what's more likely to happen knowing that the Province will invest $1.5B in a subway no matter what the city says or decides?
*Can someone helps me with the math if I'm wrong?*
Funding under Harper Government
Old option A from Queen's Park: 3 stop subway at $3.56B
- $660M Ottawa
- $1.5B province
- $1B to $1.4B city (tax levy which council passed)
Old option B from Queen's Park: 2 stop subway if city refused to pay
- $660M Ottawa
- $1.5B province
Funding under Trudeau Government
Old option A from Queen's Park: 3 stop subway at $3.56B
- $1.78B from the feds
- $1.5B province
- 280M$ city (originally on the hook for $1B)
Old option B from Queen's Park: If the city refuse to pay, it's 2 stop subway, assuming the province stay put at $1.5B, the Feds would match with $1.5B. What does $3B gets you? However, the province was adamant with spending $1.5B on subway, this makes me think that if the Feds does pay 50% of that extension, Queen's Park could increase it's funding so that Ottawa would match the extra cost of Lawrence East.
New Scarborough plan:
1 stop Subway at $2.5B
- $1.25B Feds
- $1.25B province
Crosstown East ($1B):
- 50% Fed ($500M)
- 25% province ($250M)
- 25% City($250M originally on the hook for $1.4B)
Assuming that the province plans on asking Ottawa 50% for the subway and Crosstown East, is there a possibility of a 3 stop subway + Crosstown East?
- The city already pass the tax levy for the subway and (correct me if I'm wrong) already collecting it.
- Smarttrack East north of Kennedy would have to be dropped so the extension is viable in term of ridership
- Politically, that would satisfy all parties.
Province submitting 3 stop subway + Crosstown East to Ottawa for funding and dropping Smarttrack East to fix the ridership issue
3 stop subway + Crosstown East (let's use 5 billion)
- $2.5B from the feds
- $1.5B province
- $1B $ city (Same amount the tax levy is supposed to finance)
My analysis, Smarttrack cannibalizing the ridership is a huge problem and the Lawrence & Ellesmere stations needs to get cancelled to get the previous ridership back justifying its construction. Under the current proposal, Scarborough, north of the 401, is shamelessly underserved and cut off from rapid transit while turning the 1 stop subway into another overkill project. With the province being adamant on subway technology, how do we fix this? My model above shows that for the same costs for both the city and province, a viable 3 stop subway along with Crosstown East is in fact possible thanks to the Trudeau Government willingness to pay for 50% of the overall project.
It’s a win for all parties:
- the subway can be built without the SRT being shutdown
- the subway would reach Sheppard Avenue East
- If Smarttrack station gets cancelled, the previous ridership would be back justifying the subway extension
- The city would collect it’s tax levy as usual
- No extra cost for the province
- The Federal government would just cover the extra construction cost (and they seem happy to do so)
- End of the Scarborough debate and political farce…until Sheppard East comes up.
Please comment and help me fix it, debunk it, challenge it as I want to send it to both City Councillors and MPPs