Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Juan_Lennon416]

It's not the Liberal's fault Tory is pushing such a foolish idea.

It's the Liberals fault for sitting down and entertaining a foolish idea.

 

[44 North]

Sorry, I have not read much on this - but many early headlines and articles I read were misleading.

http://www.railjournal.com/index.ph...al-embraces-public-public-infrastructure.html


http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/montreal-skytrain-train-reseau-electrique-metropolitain

I'd agree that REM seems closer to Vancouver's system than a typical subway or LRT project. For one the renders of the infrastructure design gives that impression, but even the trains too. Those weights and widths are max (see the vehicle RFQ), so it's probable they could resemble MkII or III. Also it's to use 4-car 80m trains (i.e 20m long cars). The catenary thing is a bit of a change-up compared to what we've seen around the globe, but still seems Skytrain-ey with its other attributes.

 

[OneCity]

Beware spending promises that do not include a commitment to a timeline.

I have no doubt PCs will build it but it may not start until the end of their second term; you know, after the budget is balanced (tax reform will be priority #1). Wynne is already leaving 2020 through 2022 on challenging ground for balancing the budget so any kind of tax reform will double down on that. Even worse if they shift to a capital-from-current model to shock Ontarians with a surprise "Wynne deficit" (around $7B) under that accounting model to allow for an austerity budget. And all of that is before potential recession concerns (like a collapse in GTA real-estate prices).

Capital dollars for transit in the GTA will be reduced (likely in favour of a highway program instead) and I'm not convinced other demands for transit money like the Barrie Line (which drives deep into 2014 blue territory) will have its timeline sacrificed.

For reference, current provincial transit spending is about 2x that of the highway program. It's typically the other way around. If PCs go back to traditional transportation spending ratio, then transit spending will decrease by about 70% and Metrolinx can eat that up for 4 years just finishing already tendered projects.


In short, Brown has enough wiggle room that any transit promises made without a timeline commitment should be viewed as 2nd term items; so 2035? completion for SSE. A clever journalist or SSE advocacy group would push hard to get several quotes stating he's committed to the current SSE timeline, and repeat them often enough that even his Grey-Bruce voters will see it negatively if he changes it.

Naw its as close to a done deal as youll ever see. Certainly "if" Tory and either Provincial PC or Liberals are in power. Future projects could be put on the burner. The only chance this is getting cancelled is If an opposition candidate squeaks in Municipally or Tory is found smacking crack. Even then, if they dare cancel the SSE all hell breaks loose in council. Highly unlikely this is a different Political climate and the Cons are out to change their image and this project has no added cost and actually provides them with O&M savings over the LRT

 

[Cobra]

Just hoping that it's not to late for a rough in of the Lawrence Station. They can resubmit a motion once they reach 50% design

 

[steveintoronto]

I'd agree that REM seems closer to Vancouver's system than a typical subway or LRT project. For one the renders of the infrastructure design gives that impression, but even the trains too. Those weights and widths are max (see the vehicle RFQ), so it's probable they could resemble MkII or III. Also it's to use 4-car 80m trains (i.e 20m long cars). The catenary thing is a bit of a change-up compared to what we've seen around the globe, but still seems Skytrain-ey with its other attributes.

View attachment 107510

Memories of GO-ALRT. http://transit.toronto.on.ca/regional/2107.shtml

The similarity of REM and Skytrain is no mistake.
Montreal's new $5.5-billion, 67 km train system modeled after Vancouver's SkyTrain
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/montreal-skytrain-train-reseau-electrique-metropolitain

 

[OneCity]

Just hoping that it's not to late for a rough in of the Lawrence Station. They can resubmit a motion once they reach 50% design

Im not holding my breath if Tory remains in power. Now even Brown seems to have changed his tune to support Smarttrack after the recent meeting. Likely a wink and a nudge. Even if it goes to another vote theres a lot of lingering butt hurt on the far opposition and even many in the middle just want to move on. They can resubmit at 30% I believe.

 

[Leo_Chan]

If the 1 stop extension is costing $3.5B to $5B. What would the original 3 stop extension cost? $5B-$8B?

 

[dowlingm]

The Star is known to be anti-subway though. So it's still possible that with a couple of cost saving measures it would be enough to finish it.

About those cost saving measures: https://stevemunro.ca/2017/03/16/scarborough-subway-cost-rises-again-iii/

The origin of the Value Engineering Study and a related Peer Review of costs lies in a distrust at City Council that the TTC’s cost estimates for the SSE are credible given the experience of the Vaughan exension (TYSSE). It is ironic that the TYSSE went over budget, and yet the desire for an SSE review was at least in part motivated by the idea that it could be brought in below the TTC’s projected cost.

In brief, the Peer Review concludes that the TTC estimates are reasonable at the current level of design.

Although a few proposals foresee cost savings of over $100 million, these options have either already been rolled into the base project design or were replaced by a more expensive alternative. SSE advocates, notably Mayor Tory, have trumpeted these potential savings as future reductions in the project estimates, but in fact they are not available for that purpose.

A table of the 35 proposals lists potential savings for some, but the majority are “$TBD” (to be determined). One of the major proposals, a redesign of the originally planned bus terminal, has already been incorporated in the project. This wound up costing more and the project cost estimate went up, not down, as a result.

The other major proposals involve reductions to or changes in fire safety and ventillation provisions including the removal of most of the emergency service buildings. This would make the average and maximum distances for evacuation considerably longer, and longer distances would also affect access to the site of an incident by emergency workers. This will be a hard sell in a city that knows first hand what a subway disaster looks like.

From my perspective, I find it interesting that changes which create additional developable land was deemed important at Scarborough Center, when such thinking was distinctly discouraged when considering Gardiner East options, where developable land would have been maximised with the boulevard option.

 

[syn]

It's the Liberals fault for sitting down and entertaining a foolish idea.

The problem is if they jump in then there'll be complaints that they're showing no respect to the city by taking over transit planning. Letting the city deciding what they want to do and supporting that is probably the best route to take.

They supported the LRT and the subway extension, so it's hard to accuse them of being partisan.

 

[nfitz]

If the 1 stop extension is costing $3.5B to $5B. What would the original 3 stop extension cost? $5B-$8B?

The original 3-stop extension was $4.7 billion last year when the 1-stop subway was $3.1 billion. Presumably with the 1-stop subway costing $3.4 billion (not sure where $5 billion is coming from), the 3-stop subway would be $5 billion.

Presumably then the $5 billion number is the 3-stop subway.

Quite frankly, if you are going to blow $3.4 billion for 1-stop, it's a no brainer for two more stops at $800 million each.

 

[Leo_Chan]

The original 3-stop extension was $4.7 billion last year when the 1-stop subway was $3.1 billion. Presumably with the 1-stop subway costing $3.4 billion (not sure where $5 billion is coming from), the 3-stop subway would be $5 billion.

Presumably then the $5 billion number is the 3-stop subway.

Quite frankly, if you are going to blow $3.4 billion for 1-stop, it's a no brainer for two more stops at $800 million each.

The $5B for 1 stop and $8B for 3 stop are the "cost overruns" I'm just guessing.

 

[lead82]

I think there would be a lot more traction if they built a 3 stop extension with intermediate stops at Kingston road and at Lawrence. They can drop Lawrence station on SmartTrack to save money as that station is not needed because SmartTrack is a regional line. The subway should be more local. If we are going to spend money on a subway at least build more than just 1 station.

 

[kEiThZ]

Kind of silly to suggest the Liberals aren't providing support. For all the negative things the Liberals have done, there has been significant transit investment - this included a fully funded Scarborough LRT, and now billions for a subway extension in Scarborough.

It's not the Liberal's fault Tory is pushing such a foolish idea.

I like how they always start with "Since 2003, the Liberal government has..."

Over nearly a decade and a half, their support is rather pathetic if you look at it on an annual basis.

 

[OneCity]

I think there would be a lot more traction if they built a 3 stop extension with intermediate stops at Kingston road and at Lawrence. They can drop Lawrence station on SmartTrack to save money as that station is not needed because SmartTrack is a regional line. The subway should be more local. If we are going to spend money on a subway at least build more than just 1 station.

Not sure anywhere on Kingston Rd was even seriously considered as the cost would be much higher. The only other location discussed was McCowan (Danforth) & Eglinton area but they would also have an LRT station under the Eglinton East crosstown.

I would rather see the Smarttrack station pushed to Ellesmere and the Lawrence stop and Sheppard stop added. But if it means just getting something built and preventing the transfer before SCC then the Lawrence Smarttrack and City Centre could be good as long as they can achieve TTC rates for Smartrack.

 

[44 North]

I would rather see the Smarttrack station pushed to Ellesmere and the Lawrence stop and Sheppard stop added. But if it means just getting something built and preventing the transfer before SCC then the Lawrence Smarttrack and City Centre could be good as long as they can achieve TTC rates for Smartrack.

Seems odd that you're so passive about the lack of a Lawrence station. Safe to say that even the most ardent supporters of SLRT all agree it's pretty bonkers for SSE to bypass such a key corridor. It doesn't make sense. People should be rallying the troops and demanding it, or at least questioning why the line needs to be so deep that it's a supposed cost-prohibitive impossibility.