Seems to be something fishy. Don't have a copy, but did the 2016 TTC report make any mention of the 2013 Metrolinx report? And did Council ever make any mention of the Metrolinx report at any time? Perhaps the Star should put some of their SSE witch hunt focus on why this report was practically ignored/buried.
I've analyzed the reports to see where they disagree regarding the feasibility of building the extension at-grade. To make this an apples-to-apples comparison, I’m only looking at the components of the Metrolinx report that are west of Scarborough Centre Station. There are significant disparities between these two reports, which I've detailed below. Most surprisingly, it appears that
the underground one-stop to McCowan option is 3x more expensive than the Metrolinx-recommended SRT corridor option ($2.6 Billion vs. $0.9 Billion; in $2016; not including contingencies; only includes cost to construct). This Metrolinx-recommended option is the same option TTC claimed was too expensive and complicated to build.
I'm comparing the following two reports:
TTC:
http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-94622.pdf
Metrolinx:
http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/20130910_Scarborough_Subway_Feasibility_Study.pdf
The TTC's Loop Option:
This 6.2 km option created by the TTC begins by running east, parallel to Eglinton Avenue, then curves north and finally west to meet the SRT corridor, forming a "loop" formation. The line reaches at-grade at some point just south of Lawrence Avenue, continues running at-grade for 1.4 km until Ellesmere Avenue. At Ellesmere, it runs underground for 1.8 km to Scarborough Centre Station.
The Metrolinx Option (ignoring sections east of SCC):
The ~6.5 km Metrolinx option relocates the Kennedy Station box to align it with the hydro horror just north of Kennedy Station. About 0.3 k northwest of Kennedy Station, it reaches grade and continues at-grade for 4.0 km until Ellesmere Rd. Finally, the line runs elevated for 1.8 km between Ellesmere Avenue and Scarborough Centre Station.
Length of at-grade sections
Note: I’ve made no distinction between portal structures and underground structures. The entire length of the portals are considered to be underground, for the purposes of this discussion.
Metrolinx claims the lengths of the grading for their alignment in the SRT corridor would be approximately,
0.3 km underground, 3.7 km at-grade, 1.8 km elevated.
TTC claims the lengths of the grading for their alignment in the SRT corridor would be
5.3 km underground and 1.4 km at-grade. The longer underground section of the TTC’s option relative to the Metrolinx option is due to:
- The loop east of Kennedy Station, of approximately 3.5 km in length. The details of the Kennedy Loop are addressed in the next section.
- Between Ellesmere and Scarborough Centre Station, the grading of the TTC option goes underground for approximately 1.8 km to avoid the GO tracks. Metrolinx claims that the line can be elevated for this same section, which is presumably cheaper. It is not explained why TTC felt it necessary for this 1.8 km section to be underground, or why they did not consider elevating.
Pricing of Loop vs. Kennedy Station Relocation
Metrolinx claims the loop option recommended by the TTC was too expensive, and thus recommended a solution that would involve rebuilding Kennedy Station to align it with the SRT corridor:
“…In order to connect from the tail tracks back to the existing SRT corridor, a significant (underground) loop would be required and the alignment would get back on the SRT corridor just south of Lawrence Avenue.
This is not considered practical nor cost effective…”
However, TTC says that the loop option is cheaper than the Metrolinx option:
“The option proposed by Metrolinx was ruled out because, of the two [Metrolinx proposed vs. Loop] , it would be much more costly and have more significant construction impacts.”
These two reports are in direct contradiction with regards to which of the two options (loop vs. rebuilt Kennedy) are cheaper. However, of the two reports,
only the Metrolinx report included a detailed cost analysis of rebuilding Kennedy Station (the option TTC claims is too expensive, but Metrolinx believes is cheaper).
Edit: Looking at Metrolinx's Order-Of-Magnitude Cost Estimate for the SRT surface alignment, they anticipated that
construction related to the relocation of Kennedy Station would cost approximately $571 Million. The TTC claims this option is too costly, and would rather build a large loop.
The TTC didn't specify exactly how large the loop is, but based on the distance measured in Google Maps, and the numbers in the report, it would be between 2 km and 3.5 km large. On the low end, tunnelling on the Scarborough Subway (not including stations) will cost around $300 Million/km*. So with this loop being at least 2 km large, under no circumstance would this loop be cheaper than Metrolinx's anticipated cost of $571 Million to relocate Kennedy Station, unless Metrolinx's estimate was way off the mark. Unfortunately,
the TTC provided no explanation regarding why the Kennedy relocation would be more expensive than the loop.
*At some point recently, the TTC stated the cost of building tunnels without stations. Does anyone here recall what that was?
Construction Staging and Disruption to Line 2 Service
The TTC report says,
“The [Metrolinx recommended] option would have resulted in a longer alignment constructed on the surface but would require a temporary closure of the subway east of Warden Station.”
While technically true, the TTC fails to mention that the length of the temporary closure would be rather minor. Metrolinx addresses this:
“The new Kennedy Station can be constructed with only minor disruption to the operation of the existing Kennedy Station.”
The Metrolinx report goes on to mention that
the structures for the relocated Kennedy Station can be built while Old Kennedy Station is in operation. Service would then be suspended for some time so build the tie-in between the existing tunnels and Relocated Kennedy Station:
“In order to facilitate the proposed special trackwork within the existing subway tunnel immediately west of Kennedy Road, a new tunnel structure can be built over the existing box structure to allow demolition of the existing box including centre piers at a later stage. The construction of the tie#in to the existing tunnel would require shut down of the Bloor# Danforth Subway between Warden and Kennedy Stations for a certain period of time and a temporary replacement bus service between those two stations.”
The “minor disruption” to the operations of Kennedy Station would not occur until after Eglinton Line is open, which would open up an alternate route for westbound commuters at Kennedy Station for the duration of the disruption. GO Rail services could also be utilized to provide alternate routing during the temporary disruption, in addition to traditional TTC replacement bus services.
Neither report provided a detailed analysis of the timelines of the length of the shutdown.
The TTC report then mentions concerns regarding the construction of the grading near Kennedy Station:
“In addition to demolishing and reconstructing Kennedy Station, the approaching tracks would need to be lowered beginning west of Kennedy Road to allow the subway to pass under the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line and access the SRT corridor.”
The Metrolinx report did not explicitly address this concern. However, they did include detailed maps with grading profiles with their report. I trust that they considered the Eglinton LRT in their evaluation.
Pricing:
The TTC did not provide a pricing estimate for the surface alignment including the the Kennedy Loop option or the Kennedy Station Relocation. Metrolinx only provided an estimate for the surface alignment including Kennedy Station relocation.
Below are costs of the currently approved one-stop McCowan express vs. the Metrolinx suface alignment including Kennedy relocation (between Kennedy and SCC). Both options
only include cost to construct. They do not include financing, lifecycle, operation/maintenance or contingencies. The cost of the SRT alignment was derived by subtracting Metrolinx’s cost of elements east of SCC from the total estimated cost in Metrolinx’s Order-of-Magnitude Cost Estimate.
Express McCowan Option (One stop - Kennedy to SCC): $2.545 Billion ($2016, TTC)
SRT Alignment Option (Two Stops - Kennedy to SCC): $0.832 Billion ($2011, Metrolinx)
Adjusted for inflation, the SRT alignment option costs $0.88 Billion in $2016. Note that inflation adjustment is rudimentary and does not include changes in cost of building, materials, etc...
Note: Can anyone here confirm that the pricing the the Express McCowan Option does not include contingencies.