Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Palma]

The Sheppard Subway currently has 48,000 passengers per day over 5.5km. This would be equivalent to 56,000 passengers per day over 6.4km (the same distance as the Scarborough Subway extension).

The Scarborough Subway extension is projected to have 62,000 passengers per day in 2031. I bet the Sheppard subway will have more than that by 2031 with all the development going on around the stations.

and this projection of 62,000 is to be believed? Just as the UP #;s were to be believed as justification for it or Spadina extension of sheppard subway

 

[Palma]

Unresolved issues in reverting to LRT in Scarborough, TTC says

http://www.cp24.com/news/unresolved-issues-in-reverting-to-lrt-in-scarborough-ttc-says-1.2971983

how is it the the LRT now too has escalated to cost 2.98B vs 3.18B for subway? Why are people always playing around with these numbers to obtain a certain outcome. To make it seem that the LRt would also be expensive only slightly less than subway is to shed a better light on have a subway vs LRT. Its similar to when numbers were projected upwards for or a sheppard subway when they were previously projected lower and after subway was built proejcted lower again vs subway proejctions. Whenever I see projection numbers I gloss right over them

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I really don't understand why the subway option has ballooned in price so much. Why is that not being discussed?

The subway construction costs have inflated because the tunnels and stations need to be twice as deep as previously planned. That required a ton more building materials.

As for the LRT, I have no idea, other than inflation adjustments being part of the reason.

 

[nfitz]

The Sheppard Subway currently has 48,000 passengers per day over 5.5km. This would be equivalent to 56,000 passengers per day over 6.4km (the same distance as the Scarborough Subway extension).

The Scarborough Subway extension is projected to have 62,000 passengers per day in 2031. I bet the Sheppard subway will have more than that by 2031 with all the development going on around the stations.

Hmm ... but 7,500 for SSE at peak in peak direction compared to 5,000ish for Sheppard. Is the SSE flow that much better split between directions?

 

[salsa]

Steve Munro: What's involved in reviving the Scarborough LRT proposal

https://stevemunro.ca/2016/07/05/reviving-the-scarborough-lrt-proposal/

 

[Steve X]

The $2.9B is 2023$ and the $1.8B is 2010$. That's like comparing apples with oranges. Makes no sense except that the TTC wants to throw people off and not revive the LRT plan.

TTC really faked it by using 51% inflation for 2010-2023. FYI, Bank of Canada says inflation between the last 13 years (2003-2016) is 25.66%. The $2.9B figure is an overestimate. Using 26%, the figure should really be around $2.3B.

 

[coffey1]

Steve Munro: What's involved in reviving the Scarborough LRT proposal

https://stevemunro.ca/2016/07/05/reviving-the-scarborough-lrt-proposal/

The great shame is these polarized reporters and transit "advocates" could give a crap about integrating Scarborough. Again its one stop SSE vs transfer LRT. Nothing else to help this matter move forward. These articles offer nothing good at this point and clearly these people refuse to get the message.

Hopefully this last gasp opportunistic effort for transfer LRT and we can move on finally.

 

[Cobra]

Steve Munro: What's involved in reviving the Scarborough LRT proposal

https://stevemunro.ca/2016/07/05/reviving-the-scarborough-lrt-proposal/

Where was he when the TTC plan to refurbish the SRT to Mk.II was scrapped for the much much expensive LRT? Why not revive that plan with a rebuilt of Kennedy to shorten the transfer coupled with an extension Northern Scarborough?

Or just elevate the subway Chicago Style east on Eglinton and north on McCowan Road to Sheppard or Finch.

 

[BurlOak]

The Mark I was brought in by the Conservatives in the early 80's. The Mark II extension WA proposed under Mel Lastman, who also was viewed as a conservative.
You can't expect the current government to bring those plans forward - that would put transit she of politics.

 

[Voltz]

Where was he when the TTC plan to refurbish the SRT to Mk.II was scrapped for the much much expensive LRT? Why not revive that plan with a rebuilt of Kennedy to shorten the transfer coupled with an extension Northern Scarborough?

Or just elevate the subway Chicago Style east on Eglinton and north on McCowan Road to Sheppard or Finch.

Since when was the LRT plan more expensive? The line infrastructure would essentially be the same, and LRT would share a common fleet and yard with other lines,

Unless you are comparing LRT to the original plans to only rebuild the existing line with no extension... But that is not a fair comparison.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

and while you are having the plebisite, ask if they want the 1 or 2 stop subway vs LRT

Sure, do that - and pay the difference. I suspect what you will get is disunity within Scarborough.

AoD

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

I never believed Scarborough was united over the subway anyway.

There is absolutely zero reason why anyone in South Scarborough should give a crap about the subway to STC for instance.

 

[Cobra]

SRT modernization
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ng-pr-push-for-extension-of-yonge-subway.html

In 2006, when the TTC dismissed the idea of modernizing the SRT, it was estimated to cost $360 million and involve an eight-month service disruption, said Soberman.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_h...lect-of-scarborough-rt-is-shameful-james.html

“For many years, it has carried daily passenger volumes of 40,000 people, with peak-period passenger volumes maxed-out at 4,000 passengers per hour, due to the limited number of vehicles in the SRT fleet.”

What? They can’t buy new trains?

They could. And the TTC wanted to. A 2006 report made the case forcefully. It considered replacing the RT with a subway or an LRT. Staff rejected both as “not needed or warranted … cannot be justified.”

But their political masters ignored the plea and ruined a good thing that the rest of the world came to embrace.

LRT plan
Multiple sources
$1.48B

 

[rbt]

The $2.9B is 2023$ and the $1.8B is 2010$. That's like comparing apples with oranges. Makes no sense except that the TTC wants to throw people off and not revive the LRT plan.

TTC really faked it by using 51% inflation for 2010-2023. FYI, Bank of Canada says inflation between the last 13 years (2003-2016) is 25.66%. The $2.9B figure is an overestimate. Using 26%, the figure should really be around $2.3B.

In general I agree with you, however the BoC inflation rate isn't relevant for this purpose. The number you need is the Construction Price Index for Ontario (or Toronto specifically). Stats Canada tracks it via residential construction prices which includes land; but the land factor is relevant for most transit projects too including the LRT (extension past SCC to Sheppard).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ144a-eng.htm

OR, even better is the MTO construction price index as building bridges and roadways is very similar to building subways and tracks (similar materials, equipment, contractors, and even crews for many jobs) but I forget where to find this.

Either way, construction prices have been increasing in Toronto far faster than the "basket of goods" inflation rate you used.

 

[bobbob911]

As a South Scarborough resident who has no reason to ever take the SSE extension, I do specifically reject any plan that will involve replacing the SRT with bus shuttle service for multiple years. This would be a political and logistical nightmare. If the only plan on the table that avoids this is a tunneled subway, then I am (reluctantly) still in favor of the subway.