Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

Because the projection two years ago was for the Line 2 extension to Sheppard, while this is for the Line 2 extension to Scarborough Centre

The Crosstown East LRT should be having a big impact on the Scarborough Subway projections. Remember, the Crosstown East has projected peak hour ridership of 5,500 approximately. That's higher than Line 4, and nearly as high as the current Line 3. It should be diverting a large number of commuters away from the SRT/SSE.

Also consider that the stop at Lawrence for the Line 2 extension was removed.

Doubt that Eglinton East would have much effect on the SSE ridership, as they serve different catchment areas. Out of the LRT's forecast 5,500 peak riders, about 2,000 are already taking that route (buses); the Eglinton E bus corridor is very busy. The remaining 3,000 should come mostly from new development / densification along the route, as well as increased transit usage amongst the existing residents. For people living north of Lawrence, as well as for UofT Scarborough students, a trip on a bus to STC plus a subway ride would still be faster than the LRT trip, thus there is no much reason to switch to LRT.

You have a good point about the removed stations. I guess, the removal of Sheppard station can account for as many as 2,000 peak rides, and Lawrence East can account for about 1,000.

To me, that suggests that removing the stations is a pretty bad idea We are getting higher % loss in ridership than the % reduction in the construction costs.

Either all 3 stations should be restored, or the "surface" / SRT Corridor route for the subway should be re-examined.

 

[salsa]

I did not see many streets without sidewalks in Scarborough. Remember, this is an area with relatively high % of transit usage. How would people get to their buses if there were no sidewalks?

Streets without sidewalks are common in some areas north of Steeles though.

I think the poster was mocking the NIMBYs in Scarborough who have a reputation for fighting against new sidewalks on many occasions. Here are just three examples of the top of my head:

1. Chine Drive
2. Midland Ave
3. Strode Dr + Chillery Ave

Yes, I've been in Scarborough a few times; on a bus, in a car, and even on foot. Can't claim that I know all parts of it. But in the areas I visited (mostly, along Sheppard East and around it), streets do have sidewalks.

I did not see many streets without sidewalks in Scarborough. Remember, this is an area with relatively high % of transit usage. How would people get to their buses if there were no sidewalks?

Where the subway is going, the place is not exactly known for being pedestrian friendly. I wrote about it in detail a few months ago:

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...ronto-design-phase.2975/page-480#post-1091016

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Doubt that Eglinton East would have much effect on the SSE ridership, as they serve different catchment areas

Here's the thing about Scarborough Town 'Centre'. The Town Centre isn't a particularly big destination within Scarborough, and its importance as a destination is often overstated. A small minority of trips with origin points in Scarborough have destinations at Scarborough Centre.

The primary reason Scarborough Centre is a busy terminal point is because the TTC has designed a large number of Scarborough bus routes to terminate at that station. Bus passengers arriving at Scarborough Centre then use Line 3, or other bus routes, to continue to other destinations within Scarborough or across Toronto. Scarborough Centre acts as a distributor to connect to other destinations in Scarborough and across Toronto; the Centre isn't necessarily a destination in itself.

What this means is that if there are any routes better than Scarborough Centre for connecting commuters with origin points in Scarborough to their destinations, commuters will use that route rather than take a bus to Scarborough Centre. In this regard, Crosstown East LRT is direct competition for Scarborough Centre ridership, as for many commuters with origin points in Scarborough, it will more effectively connect commuters to their designation than Scarborough Centre could. Furthermore, Crosstown East is particularly good competition for ridership that would otherwise be directed towards Scarborough Centre, because Crosstown East directly connects to more designations than any other line in Scarborough.

 

[salsa]

I'm in Scarborough a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised if more than half of the side streets didn't have sidewalks. Sidewalks aren't the norm.

No need to assume. Moderator ShonTron created this awesome interactive map showing where all the sidewalks are in this city.

 

[crs1026]

If there are no expropriations for this subway, it will be interesting to listen to Scarboro residents then argue that they were shortchanged, compared to most other communities and parts of the City where transit was expanded. and how expropriation was a tool that rich downtown elitists directed their way, but nowhere else.

http://rbllp.com/expropriation-overview/notable-expropriations/

- Paul

 

[Steve X]

Because the projection two years ago was for the Line 2 extension to Sheppard, while this is for the Line 2 extension to Scarborough Centre




The Crosstown East LRT should be having a big impact on the Scarborough Subway projections. Remember, the Crosstown East has projected peak hour ridership of 5,500 approximately. That's higher than Line 4, and nearly as high as the current Line 3. It should be diverting a large number of commuters away from the SRT/SSE.

Also consider that the stop at Lawrence for the Line 2 extension was removed.

Edit: oh, and Smartttack

I don't know. Scarborough is huge and is even bigger than Paris. Eglinton East totally serves a different area than the Scarborough subway. Whatever routes feed into STC will remain there. The 54/86/116/198 feeds into Eglinton East. They don't feed into the Scarborough subway so there wouldn't be any effect. If Eglinton East was extended into Malvern, then there would be some effects.

I fail to see any sense in your logic. Eglinton East can have a high demand but that's local to the areas that line serves. It's not like Malvern riders (thsoe who take the 39, 131,132,133 and 134) will divert southeast to take Eglinton East at UTSC. That would take 40+ minute to get to Kennedy oppose to the 30 min trip. The 54 riders west of Morningside might end up taking it to Science Centre due to the stupid connections and infrequent ST. The 184 Lawrence East Rocket would be more appealing once that is running.

For UTSC students it's already faster to ride the 198 from UTSC to Kennedy than the 38 to STC and then Kennedy, the LRT will not take away any Scarborough subway riders.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Maybe those against any unexpected expropriations assumed that land or property was "always" set aside for new highways, railways, rapid transit, etc. and that expropriations would "never" happen?

I can understand that, especially when I see extra-wide bridges and underpasses in the suburbs, with extra lanes set aside to road widening for some "future" date.

Of course, with those extra spaces available, they could have been used as a short bicycle lanes, but never seem to be used for that purpose.

 

[Steve X]

Maybe those against any unexpected expropriations assumed that land or property was "always" set aside for new highways, railways, rapid transit, etc. and that expropriations would "never" happen?

I can understand that, especially when I see extra-wide bridges and underpasses in the suburbs, with extra lanes set aside to road widening for some "future" date.

Of course, with those extra spaces available, they could have been used as a short bicycle lanes, but never seem to be used for that purpose.

They should just keep the alignment on McCowan and close off some of the lanes to build the station box. The can just expropriate the parking lot just south of McCowan Station and turn that into a bus terminal. After the demolish McCowan Station, turn that into a parking lot. Scarborough can't get the best out of the whole world. They should have know that subway means expropriations would happen. It's not even fair to the rest of the city that taxes are paid toward this messed up project. It would be more fair if they hike the levy to fund other transit project like the relief line, waterfront LRTs, Jane LRT and Eglinton West.

One thing I agree with is they shouldn't cut down the trees.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't know. Scarborough is huge and is even bigger than Paris. Eglinton East totally serves a different area than the Scarborough subway. Whatever routes feed into STC will remain there. The 54/86/116/198 feeds into Eglinton East. They don't feed into the Scarborough subway so there wouldn't be any effect. If Eglinton East was extended into Malvern, then there would be some effects.

Just to be clear, I'm not claiming Crosstown East will divert all, or even most rides from Scarborough Centre. But it'll divert a significant amount of riders, and is one of many factors applying downward pressure on Scarborough Subway ridership

I fail to see any sense in your logic. Eglinton East can have a high demand but that's local to the areas that line serves. It's not like Malvern riders (thsoe who take the 39, 131,132,133 and 134) will divert southeast to take Eglinton East at UTSC. That would take 40+ minute to get to Kennedy oppose to the 30 min trip. The 54 riders west of Morningside might end up taking it to Science Centre due to the stupid connections and infrequent ST. The 184 Lawrence East Rocket would be more appealing once that is running.

For everyone on Lawrence East or south of Lawrence, the Crosstown East will be a faster route downtown, especially since there will no longer be a station on the SSE on Lawrence East.

And even for many riders north of Lawrence, a trip downtown (to St. Andrew) via Eglinton Line and Yonge Line will take approximately as long as a trip via Line 2 (from Scarborough Centre). For example, a trip from Bellamy at Beenleigh (about 2.5 km north of Eglinton) to St. Andrew would take on average 63.5 minutes via Eglinton Line and 61.5 minutes via Scarborough Subway. On average the Scarborough Subway will be slightly faster, but when accounting for variations in bus arrival times, the Eglinton Line would be faster much of the time. For example, if the southbound 9 Bellamy were arriving in 3 minutes, and the northbound 9 Bellamy were arriving in 5 minutes, taking the Eglinton Line would be the fastest route downtown.

These are examples of trips that are in Crosstown East's catchment area (where it would be the fastest route to a particular destination). It's catchment area would be quite wide, and with these examples it's easy to imagine how the Crosstown East can divert several hundred and perhaps 1,ooo+ riders at peak hour away from the Scarborough Subway.

 

[Steve X]

Just to be clear, I'm not claiming Crosstown East will divert all, or even most rides from Scarborough Centre. But it'll divert a significant amount of riders, and is one of many factors applying downward pressure on Scarborough Subway ridership



For everyone on Lawrence East or south of Lawrence, the Crosstown East will be a faster route downtown, especially since there will no longer be a station on the SSE on Lawrence East.

And even for many riders north of Lawrence, a trip downtown (to St. Andrew) via Eglinton Line and Yonge Line will take approximately as long as a trip via Line 2 (from Scarborough Centre). For example, a trip from Bellamy at Beenleigh (about 2.5 km north of Eglinton) to St. Andrew would take on average 63.5 minutes via Eglinton Line and 61.5 minutes via Scarborough Subway. On average the Scarborough Subway will be slightly faster, but when accounting for variations in bus arrival times, the Eglinton Line would be faster much of the time. For example, if the southbound 9 Bellamy were arriving in 3 minutes, and the northbound 9 Bellamy were arriving in 5 minutes, taking the Eglinton Line would be the fastest route downtown.

These are examples of trips that are in Crosstown East's catchment area (where it would be the fastest route to a particular destination). It's catchment area would be quite wide, and with these examples it's easy to imagine how the Crosstown East can divert several hundred and perhaps 1,ooo+ riders at peak hour away from the Scarborough Subway.

It's true that it would be faster to transfer from Lawrence to a N-S direction bus to get to Eglinton. It's just extra hassle to take an extra bus.

We still need to know if they'll run all trains through Kennedy. TTC hasn't confirm this any of this. The line we see are coming from Jen Keesmaat's office. The demand east of Kennedy is significantly higher than the western side. Some trains might be short turned at Kennedy.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

It's true that it would be faster to transfer from Lawrence to a N-S direction bus to get to Eglinton. It's just extra hassle to take an extra bus.

Both scenarios I told actually use the same number of busses. Remember, the 9 Bellamy terminates at Scarborough Centre. So there's no extra bus for either option.

We still need to know if they'll run all trains through Kennedy. TTC hasn't confirm this any of this. The line we see are coming from Jen Keesmaat's office. The demand east of Kennedy is significantly higher than the western side. Some trains might be short turned at Kennedy.

The service specifics are subject to change until the line opens. Having every Line 2 train turn back at Kennedy is likely, since Line 2 demand would drop off at Kennedy.

For Eglinton Line, I'd expect all trains to continue past Kennedy. This is because Crosstown East has a high peak hour demand of nearly 5,500, which is the same as the central crosstown.

 

[Cobra]

http://news.nationalpost.com/toronto/chris-selley-scarborough-transit-users-screwed-again

These caught my attention:

Still, it is hardly surprising the ridership projection shrank. The subway itself shrank, for God’s sake. If you have fewer stations, chances are pretty good fewer people are going to get on the trains. The one-stop plan redirects thousands of potential daily riders to other options, including SmartTrack. If people were supporting the one-stop plan believing otherwise, they were being very silly.

That makes sense. The subway not going north of the 401 also explains this huge drop in ridership. It will be business as usual for those who used to just stay on the bus to take the Sheppard line then the Yonge Line.

Also the article put the emphasis on how residents are the victims here...to local and provincial politicians who put their egos in front of the needs of theses citizens...Something that this forum tend to forget with comments accusing those residents of being spoiled brats.

 

[Cobra]

The service specifics are subject to change until the line opens. Having every Line 2 train turn back at Kennedy is likely, since Line 2 demand would drop off at Kennedy.

That makes no sense...The ridership at Scarborough Centre is projected to be around the same as Kipling. I don't see the TTC short turning trains at Islington

 

[smallspy]

That makes no sense...The ridership at Scarborough Centre is projected to be around the same as Kipling. I don't see the TTC short turning trains at Islington

That's because it isn't worth the effort - they'd maybe save one train at rush hour.

Between Kennedy and Scarborough Town Centre, on the other hand, the distance is far greater and thus the potential savings will be too. I haven't seen if they've done any simulations, but it's probably about 5 or 6 trains that they could eliminate by turning back every second one at Kennedy versus running them all to Scarborough Town Centre.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[darth_freeman]

That makes no sense...The ridership at Scarborough Centre is projected to be around the same as Kipling. I don't see the TTC short turning trains at Islington

Not to mention, the extension to Kipling happened in 1980, almost 40 years ago!! The ridership was probably what, like 2,000 pphd back then?

I guess that was a time when politicians and planners actually looked towards the future.