Cracks appear in Tory alliance

[Brandon716]

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/615254

Cracks appear in Tory alliance

Apr 08, 2009 04:30 AM
Comments on this story (13)
When the Conservative Party of Canada was created in late 2003, it brought together two antagonistic groups: the Progressive Conservatives from the Brian Mulroney era and the people who created the Reform party in protest against Mulroney's policies.

For half a decade, they have papered over their differences and presented a more-or-less united front to the public. But now the cracks are starting to appear, with Mulroney himself as the catalyst.

As Canadian Press reported on Monday, the Conservative caucus was roiled last week by comments to the media from anonymous sources, variously described as "party officials" and "Harper's office," to the effect that Mulroney was no longer a member of the party.

The release of the information coincided with the onset of the public inquiry into Mulroney's dealings with arms dealer Karlheinz Schreiber. The Harperites were clearly trying to put as much distance as possible between the present-day Conservatives and whatever dirty laundry may emerge from the inquiry.

There was just one problem: Mulroney flatly denied he had severed his ties with the Conservatives. "I will be a member of the Conservative party until I die," he declared in a statement.

According to Canadian Press, speaking up on behalf of Mulroney inside last week's caucus were the likes of Defence Minister Peter MacKay, MP Lee Richardson, and Senators Gerry St. Germain and David Angus – all former Progressive Conservatives. When Sen. Marjorie LeBreton, a former aide in Mulroney's office but now a Harper loyalist, said that Mulroney had allowed his party membership to lapse, Richardson shouted: "Says who?"

Also leaked to the media were "talking points" on the issue sent to the caucus by Harper's office, such as: "These stories don't relate to anything that ordinary Canadians care about," and, contradictorily, "The Canadian people want and deserve answers to questions about the dealings between Mr. Mulroney and Mr. Schreiber."

The leaks themselves signal the seriousness of the Conservative split over Mulroney. When relations within a governing party are harmonious, such private communications are rarely leaked.

There have even been whispers in Ottawa about Harper's tenuous hold on the leadership of the party.

None of this means the end of Harper and his government. But it all adds up to one more headache for the Prime Minister as he seeks to craft a winning strategy in the midst of a recession.

 

[Brandon716]

I think this op/ed piece really captures the increasing fractures in the new, unified right. There are still Progressive Conservatives in this mostly Alliance party we know as the Conservative Party of Canada, and they don't take well to Mulroney bashing. Alliance Conservatives (which I think are clearly the majority of the modern party) have a disdain for the Mulroney years, because that's what split the party to begin with.

While the op/ed was also frank, I happen to agree you won't break up the Conservatives with this small of a disagreement, it does show fractures that the competing parties can capitalize on.

 

[afransen]

The CPC is an alliance of libertarian-minded fiscal conservatives and religiously motivated social-conservatives. These factions are in clear opposition on many issues dear to their hearts. It is almost inevitable that one group or the other will be purged, and it is likely going to be the social conservatives. When this happens it may give rise to another Reform, which would disastrous, and a mere strengthening of some fringe Christian party. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

I wonder if all this would now be happening if Harper had not miscalculated this passed Fall with the EFU. Certainly the strain of being in office during the downturn was going to be difficult, but I expect the cracks formed then are what's allowing the party to crumble.

 

[lordmandeep]

really that Fall fiscal update was likely the worst political move ever.


Harper was in a great spot to finally become a more liked centrist leader like Chretien.

But no...

 

[kEiThZ]

This is the Star being shrill. I think the Conservatives are bright enough to know that if they split up neither faction will implement their agenda. I think the Conservatives will become like one of the US political parties....they will undergo cycles where various factions dominate. For example, these days the religious right and social conservatives are losing their dominance on the Republican Party, post Bush II. Once the recession and economic turmoil ends, however, they'll probably regain their stature. Canadian conservatives are no different. The social conservatives in the party probably realize that these days its their economist friends who matter the most.

On the main issue of contention. I do find the way they treated Mulroney to be despicable. Was Mulroney a great guy? Definitely not. Was he a decent PM? Perhaps. He did after all implement policies that everyone agrees are essential to Canada's success today (free trade, GST, acid rain treaty). Cut the guy a break. They had hearings. Then they had some more. They couldn't convict the guy of anything. Let it go. Geez. This is starting to border on parliamentary harassment of a private citizen. If they have something, hand it over to the RCMP and charge the guy. If not, stop recalling him to Ottawa every year for an annual ritual. They've let the Liberal scandals die. But they still keep dredging this up. It's beyond absurd now....and for what? Air Canada liked the Airbus planes so much that they ordered dozens more. It's hard to argue that Air Canada's preference for Airbus was entirely due to political interference. There was nothing pushing them to expand the Airbus fleet in the 90s.

 

[lordmandeep]

The reason why Mulroney still entices such anger is because he gave a big middle finger to all us in his last year in office. Like he did not leave with a smile but in spite and I think that is what remember him as.

He sort of became a sore loser and sort of went crazy in the end.


Also Chretien liberals have did a great job of making Mulroney into a bad guy.

 

[kEiThZ]

Either way, the split talk is bogus. I don't see this as any worse than Chretien/Martin. When things are going bad for a party the factions will always start bickering. Then they'll hit rock bottom, get booted from office and have to rebuild. Cohesion will come, they'll get re-election, have their honemoon phase, comfort phase and then go back to bickering and re-start they cycle. The Liberals went through it. Now its the turn of the Conservatives.

 

[afransen]

This is the Star being shrill. I think the Conservatives are bright enough to know that if they split up neither faction will implement their agenda. I think the Conservatives will become like one of the US political parties....they will undergo cycles where various factions dominate. For example, these days the religious right and social conservatives are losing their dominance on the Republican Party, post Bush II. Once the recession and economic turmoil ends, however, they'll probably regain their stature. Canadian conservatives are no different. The social conservatives in the party probably realize that these days its their economist friends who matter the most.

On the main issue of contention. I do find the way they treated Mulroney to be despicable. Was Mulroney a great guy? Definitely not. Was he a decent PM? Perhaps. He did after all implement policies that everyone agrees are essential to Canada's success today (free trade, GST, acid rain treaty). Cut the guy a break. They had hearings. Then they had some more. They couldn't convict the guy of anything. Let it go. Geez. This is starting to border on parliamentary harassment of a private citizen. If they have something, hand it over to the RCMP and charge the guy. If not, stop recalling him to Ottawa every year for an annual ritual. They've let the Liberal scandals die. But they still keep dredging this up. It's beyond absurd now....and for what? Air Canada liked the Airbus planes so much that they ordered dozens more. It's hard to argue that Air Canada's preference for Airbus was entirely due to political interference. There was nothing pushing them to expand the Airbus fleet in the 90s.

Well, the parliamentary inquiry never got off the ground. Harper has just been very effective in stalling the process since last year. Now that it cannot be stalled any longer, they will finally begin the parliamentary investigation. Certainly the sponsorship scandal investigation got much further than Mulroney-Schreiber. That it did so quickly is because Martin accelerated the process, rather than stymied it.

For the Conservatives, I have a hard time believing anyone is happy, except those who love power for power's sake. Conservative policies are getting nowhere, and Harper's orgy of spending and fiscal irresponsibility hardly plays well to the base. So then Harper attempts to make issues out of nothing, which will undoubtedly annoy people who think these matters are trivial in the midst of a deep recession.

 

[lordmandeep]

Harper is a goner.

Igantieff comes off as a centrist...

Not as some crazy Liberal like Dion.

 

[Brandon716]

The op/ed didn't suggest that the party would split into two parties, it said there is heat building inside the united Conservative camp.

A matter of fact, the writer went out of their way to explain the united Conservative party isn't going anywhere and the Harper government isn't going anywhere, anytime soon in terms of literally splitting up, but there is a clear faction of Progressive Conservatives who still aren't on board with the leading Alliance faction.

The piece should be taken for face value. Those Red Tories could easily become Liberal voters. Red Tories may not like the Alliance blow hards when they act up and considering how progressive some Tories still are, they have other options...

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The problem is - the centre is once again getting crowded with Ignatieff on the scene and the Conservatives (i.e. Harper, but also his various MPs) are increasingly being pushed to the right, if only by optics. That does not bode well for him and his party - especially the party in power (a minority at that) have to preside over the a rather deep recession - and waiting till the storm blow over really isn't much of an option.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Again, take the article for what it's worth. It's from The Star after all. I am sure there are some internal divisions but to hold up some arguments over the treatment of Mulroney as evidence of a serious split is a bit shrill. I could see divisive debates over policy. But I don't think the party is going to split over how Mulroney is being handled (as despicable as that is).

 

[Brandon716]

Again, take the article for what it's worth. It's from The Star after all. I am sure there are some internal divisions but to hold up some arguments over the treatment of Mulroney as evidence of a serious split is a bit shrill. I could see divisive debates over policy. But I don't think the party is going to split over how Mulroney is being handled (as despicable as that is).

Last year when The Star was reporting a rift between Dion Liberals and other Liberals, you ate it up. Now that they are being critical of the Conservatives you cry "its just the Star" as if its irrelevant.

The fact is that this Mulroney inquiry is causing a rift, as the op/ed states, because the Reform-Alliance party was formed as a reaction against Mulroney and the Progressive Conservatives.

Those divisions are still there, despite the willingness to set aside differences to start winning elections a few years ago. And now the divisions are in fact increasing.

The present Conservative party has way too much Alliance in it for rural Ontario to be voting as blue as it does. But it doesn't mean Ignatieff can win back as much as he needs right now to win an election.

Only time will tell where this ends up.

Ignatieff, in order to win, has to do two things: appear not scary to red Tories that may have been Liberals in the past, and also draw back in some of the left that has realigned with the NDP. The NDP gained exponentially and has a huge support base today vs. the 2000 election. 1.5 million new NDP voters came out in 2008 compared with the 2000 election where Chretien was involved. The Liberals are going to have to draw some NDP support back into the fold, but they can't do it by pandering to Alberta Oil like Ignatieff's recent speeches.

Ignatieff is no Chretien, so he has some work ahead of himself. The Liberal party is going to have to continue rebuilding its brand to win an election. In order to win, the Liberals are going to have to have a centre-left leader. Chretien was centre-left, he had a spunky personality, and people liked him. It wasn't just because the right was divided in the 1990's that the Liberal brand was so strong, Chretien was able to pull in people who would otherwise vote NDP. Ignatieff hasn't proven as of yet that he has what it takes to truly unite the Liberal brand and stand for Liberal values.

Liberals have been bleeding from BOTH ends, the centre-right and left ends of the party. The centre-right has bled to the Harper Cons, but even more of a problem is that literally over a million former left leaning Liberals are now following Jack Layton. Layton may be a lot of things, but he's a genuine individual. Ignatieff can come across as a politician that will say anything, and that appearance has to change. I'm saying this because I want Harper to lose and for Liberal strategy to get better, not because I'm trying to be anti-Ignatieff.

But on the other hand, Ignatieff's poll numbers don't look bad right now. I just fear he's not drawing enough left support from voters that went NDP. Ignatieff has already won back his centre red Tory voters in Quebec particularly, they are polling quite well for him and they never did have enthusiasm for the Harper Conservatives anyway... He should stop pandering to Alberta oil when Alberta literally only has a handful of ridings that could swing his way. I think Ignatieff is hurting his base in Ontario and Atlantic Canada when he starts making certain speeches in Alberta like he's done recently. I would be advising him differently if I were in the Liberal campaign strategy office.

 

[afransen]

^ Are you serious? Layton strikes me as the most polished, slick politician of the lot. He definitely has a car-salesman quality about him, made more evident by the way he talks down to us about the 'kitchen table'.

 

[lordmandeep]

No the NDP has crashed drastically ever since the failed Coalition...

I think a lot of NDP supporters will support Igantieff if he can beat Harper. They go "okay time to get serious"


Plus don't forget a lot of the Liberal vote in Ontario just stayed home last time.