News   Apr 26, 2024
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Countdown to 2047: The Death of Hong Kong?

Hong Kong government launches HK$300 million scheme to help retrain city’s workforce amid anti-government protests and US-China trade war
  • Dozens of free training courses will be available for about 10,000 unemployed and those in vulnerable work
  • Those who complete the programmes could receive allowances of up to HK$16,000

 
Hong Kong protests leave ‘golden week’ tourist boom in tatters as visitor arrivals during Chinese holiday period are set to be slashed by a third
  • Financial Secretary Paul Chan says he foresees the number of tourists will fall significantly on National Day
  • Tourism lawmaker Yiu Si-wing considers this worst hit to industry during golden week since 2003 Sars outbreak

 
Hong Kong’s tourism industry endures worst August since Sars outbreak in 2003
  • 3.59 million tourists visited Hong Kong in August 2019, down from 5.89 million around same time last year
  • Number of visitors from mainland China showed second-biggest drop at 42 per cent to 2.78 million from 4.8 million

 
Exodus from Hong Kong’s prime office districts will continue as protests put economy under more stress
  • Prime rents in Central fell in the second quarter of 2019, the first drop since 2014, as more businesses leave for Kowloon East and Hong Kong East
  • In time, however, continuing unrest will undermine confidence in Hong Kong as a financial hub, and the market as a whole will suffer


Hong Kong protests turn city into ‘ghost town’ with shopping centres, restaurants shut, as MTR network crippled amid major National Day unrest
  • More than 25 shopping centres close for day of protests, that once again descend into violence across swathes of city
  • The few visitors out and about on Tuesday struggle to find much open, while many key railway stations are shut

 
Hong Kong stocks world’s worst performers in third quarter, as investors lose ‘patience and confidence’ amid protests, trade war
  • Hang Seng Index drops 8.6 per cent in third quarter
  • Politics ‘a core factor’ weighing on Hong Kong stock market, asset manager says
 
Pretty much every HK governmental action right now is adding to perceptions of injustice, and continuing to destabilize the situation.

It's very much going to lead to capital flight, despite the fact that China needs money right now and Hong Kong is its main FX entrypoint.

One thing to watch are the District council elections in November- whether or not they're allowed to go forward.

Goldman Sachs analysts Gurpreet Singh Sahi and Yingqiang Guo estimate that since the protests broke out in June about $3 billion to $4 billion have left the city for Singapore.

“That said, the HK banking system still has ample liquidity in Hong Kong dollar as well as in foreign currencies,” though “this set of data is unlikely to allay investor concerns around outflows from HK,” they wrote.

A continued capital flight would be a crippling blow to Hong Kong’s economy.

“Running down its FX reserves will push up domestic interest rates, exacerbating the city’s economic woes,” wrote Julian Evans-Pritchard and Martin Lynge Rasmussen, China economists at the London-based research firm Capital Economics, in an August note.
 
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MTR Corporation appeals to anti-government protesters to stop ‘malicious’ destruction of stations or risk losing Hong Kong’s rail system
  • Operations chief Adi Lau Tin-shing says: ‘If you want to continue to have the MTR service, which most of the Hong Kong people need, these malicious acts have to stop.’
  • Lau says 83 out of 94 rail stations, or nearly 90 per cent, had been damaged by protesters, while 42 of the city’s 68 light rail stations were vandalised

 
Tycoon Li Ka-shing donates HK$1 billion to help Hong Kong businesses survive city’s protest crisis and slowing global economy
  • Li Ka Shing Foundation says fund will complement government’s relief measures – but details yet to be worked out
  • Expert says fund could help companies in the tourism and retail sectors, such as travel agencies and coach operators
 
Tycoon Li Ka-shing donates HK$1 billion to help Hong Kong businesses survive city’s protest crisis and slowing global economy
  • Li Ka Shing Foundation says fund will complement government’s relief measures – but details yet to be worked out
  • Expert says fund could help companies in the tourism and retail sectors, such as travel agencies and coach operators

That's an eye-roll moment for sure, considering the complicity of that group of elites - and speaking of eye-rolls:


Quelle surprise - and I quote a few pages back:

I didn't ignore the wider moves - I am just being realistic about the interest of the west vis-a-vis China - Hong Kong is a non-issue that would have been given away like it was in the 80s if it ever came to the discussion table, and one can't blame them - at this point they have an even better reason - the die is already cast, there is no reasonable bargaining chip for something you have no realistic hope of enforcing.

Only fools don't realize they have been played like chess pieces.

AoD
 
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Hong Kong protests: MTR, banks, supermarkets, and shopping centres all closed as city grinds to halt after another night of violence
  • Rail operator took unprecedented step of closing entire network on Friday night and has not said when it might reopen
  • Wave of destruction leaves businesses picking up pieces as city braces for another weekend of unrest
 
Hong Kong protests: MTR, banks, supermarkets, and shopping centres all closed as city grinds to halt after another night of violence
  • Rail operator took unprecedented step of closing entire network on Friday night and has not said when it might reopen
  • Wave of destruction leaves businesses picking up pieces as city braces for another weekend of unrest
This is where it’s starting to border on the ridiculous (in my view anyway). The MTR is absolutely destroyed by rioters. The system is shut down. Now you’ve got some activists calling the shutdown an act of aggression, martial law, anti-democratic, etc. It’s like some sort of feedback loop. I mean if the MTR cannot guarantee the safety of its employees, protection of its property, or even the safety of its riders, what else would they do?
 
So we now have bank runs, and the emptying of supermarkets as HKongers are anticipating worse:

Interesting assertion that the Mainland garrison is being incorporated into the HK Police, could very much be in line with the increasing brutality of the crackdowns:


Also of note: the PLA garrison has been doubled to 12,000 soldiers:


Around 2000 PLA soldiers are believed to be embedded in the HK Police:


Assertions that the police forces are taking part in undercover activity:


Of note on the vandalism- there's generally little-to-no looting involved but businesses are instead targeted based on their perceived allegiance to the CPC- hence the vandalism of a Mainland-owned bank in one instance and the sparing of a Taiwanese bank beside it. Still, another sign of the escalating situation, and it enters a grey zone as it affects unaffiliated workers as well.

 
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Hongkongers struggle to get around city as protesters block roads, build barricades and leave chaos in their wake
  • Half of city’s metro stations remain closed while main roads on Hong Kong Island and Kowloon became impassable
Traffic on Hong Kong Island and Kowloon was brought to a near standstill in certain areas on Sunday, as another day of illegal protests saw demonstrators building barricades and blocking main thoroughfares in the city.

Tempers ran high as ordinary Hongkongers attempted to navigate public transport disruptions, as more than half of the city’s 94 metro stations remained closed.

Arguments broke out as people crammed on to buses still crossing the harbour between the island and Kowloon, while an elderly woman and protesters traded insults in Yau Ma Tei when she complained there was no public transport available because of the marches.

Police issued a succession of statements about protesters “setting up barricades with barriers and intercepting vehicles on the road”, and also suspended report room services at Wan Chai and Mong Kok police stations, both of which have previously been besieged by protesters.

 
As it happened: Hong Kong protest chaos ends in Mong Kok stand-off as MTR again closes network
  • Marches in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon trigger tear gas from police, on third straight day of civil unrest over mask ban
  • After partial opening of stations on MTR network, rail giant closes services early at 9pm as facilities are again vandalised

 

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