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Porter will soon have all of the 20 planes that were in their original order. Bombardier has about a two-year backlog for Q400 manufacturing, so if Porter wants to expand further, they are going to have think soon about whether they would like to order more.

Based on reports that the island is noise-limited to between 120-160 movements per day, once they have 20 planes, I believe that they will have pretty much filled their potential schedules for YTZ. Expansion beyond that will likely be elsewhere in Canada.

From reports, the last few planes will be put to use serving Washington and Philadelphia, and potentially somewhere in Northern Ontario.

Where do you think that Porter should look to expand to next? Or should they settle in with 20 planes and stick to what they have?

Here are some things that I have considered as options for Porter expansion:

- use the planes that are on the way to expand to DCA and PHL.

- Declare Thunder Bay and Ottawa to be hubs and bases for expansion. I would build a Porter Lounge in Thunder Bay (there is one coming already in Ottawa). In Ottawa, they have already begun to build a base of local customers that are building a preference for Porter.

- Talk to Westjet about codesharing (and with Southwest if the Southwest/Westjet deal goes forward). Right now, Westjet competes only minimally with Porter and it might be possible to move forward in a cooperative manner rather than try to steal each others customers.

- Start direct flights from Ottawa to Porter destinations. Depending on how the connecting tickets are selling, consider starting YOW-EWR, YOW-MDW, YOW-DCA.

- Atlantic Canada: I think there are expansion opportunities here, notably Fredericton (YFC), Saint John (YSJ) and Moncton (YQM). (some possibilities: YOW-YFC-YSJ, YOW-YQM-YHZ)

- Thunder Bay (YQT)could be a hub for Western Canada as it is in range of quite a few possible destinations and can feed passengers into YTZ Some possible routes:

YQT-YXE (Saskatoon)-YZF (Yellowknife)-YEV (Inuvik) [The money in Canada these days is in the Northwest and oil and gas workers have money to travel and many of them live in the east. YZF and YEV are relatively inconvenient to get to, so having stops isn't that big a deal. Potentially they could expand with some YZF-Alaska flights (Juneau, Fairbanks, Anchorage).

YQT-YFB (Iqaluit)- RKV (Reykjavik, Iceland). Right now, to get out of Iqaluit, you pretty much have to go through Ottawa. RKV is the airport in Reykjavik that is not 50km outside town. From RKV, they could hit LCY (London City Airport) as well, if they wanted to keep going. This might be worthwhile if they are allowed to sell RKV-LCY tickets. Greenland (Nuuk?) is another option from YFB.

YQT-MDW, YQT-EWR, YQT-YOW, YQT-YUL. [At first connect people through Toronto to those destinations, but if there does appear to be traffic, add non-stop flights. ]

YQT-YXE-YYC (Calgary)
YQT-YMM (Fort McMurray)
YQT-YQR (Regina)-YEG (Edmonton) [If YXD (Edmonton City Airport) ever allowed bigger planes in, I would switch to that one].

Expansion into US: Beyond DCA and PHL, I would look at BKL (Cleveland Burke Lakefront), MYR (Myrtle Beach), LUK (Cincinnati Lunken Airport) [YTZ-BKL-LUK?].

Leisure traffic: Build on the YTM (Mount Tremblant) flights with other destinations. What about extending the Saturday morning flight to Vermont or even Bermuda? Start selling three-leg tickets so that someone could go to Tremblant for a couple of days, Bermuda for a few days and then back to Toronto. Maybe people in Bermuda like to ski? YTM-YHZ might work as well.

Northern Ontario: Timmins (YTS), Sault Ste. Marie (YAM) and Sudbury (YSB) are all options, perhaps via milk run or YQT-YAM-YSB-YOW and YTZ-YSB-YTS

Most of these routes that I have suggested are either not served at all, or currently served by multiple stops or connections. While I expect there aren't a lot of people that will fly LCY-RKV-YFB-YQT-YTZ over LHR-YYZ, there is likely potential traffic between the various segments, and it would certainly be a more interesting route.

EDIT: I would also look at ordering some Q400x (90-seater) and C-Series. They couldn't use the C-series at YTZ, but could elsewhere. If they order from Bombardier, the unions and federal (and provincial) government will likely continue to support Porter.
 
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DCA and PHL makes sense. They should also partner with either American or Delta to allow some global reach. Besides a connection from YTZ to the hub of a partner I really can't think of any routes with significant potential within reach in the USA. Cincinnati has very light O&D traffic from Toronto with Air Canada not even serving CVG. Cleveland might work but with Continental joining Star Alliance and Cincinnati being a Continental hub it would be tough. Air Canada only serves CLE with three Dash8-100's per day. Myrtle Beach doesn't get much traffic.

In Ontario Sault Ste Marie, Sudbury, and Timmins makes sense.

Porter's next move beyond YTZ should be a new hub. Their biggest passenger base is in either Ottawa or Montreal and Montreal is crowded so the best location for their hub from a customer base perspective is at YOW. In Western Canada the best hub location would be Edmonton. Porter won't have the option of using Edmonton City Centre though since the city has voted to close it to commercial traffic and in about 40 years close it completely. Air Canada has chosen Calgary as its larger Alberta hub and Edmonton is closer to northern destinations that would suit Q400s and C-Series well.
 
Their biggest passenger base is in either Ottawa or Montreal and Montreal is crowded so the best location for their hub from a customer base perspective is at YOW.
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An alternative might be to move their Montreal operations to St. Hubert, which would make their hub "different" than Air Canada's. Run a Porter shuttle to downtown to attract the downtown passengers.
 
Cincinnati has very light O&D traffic from Toronto with Air Canada not even serving CVG. Cleveland might work but with Continental joining Star Alliance and Cincinnati being a Continental hub it would be tough. Air Canada only serves CLE with three Dash8-100's per day.
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It might work if you started by doing both cities in the same run, so that you don't need to fill a whole plane to either of them. Go to the airports closer to downtown (BKL in Cleveland and LUK in Cincinatti to offer a new service). If you do it in a circle, YTZ-BKL-LUK-YTZ you could avoid running with empty seats to/from LUK.

You might get some of the people that currently drive to Ohio. Detroit City Airport is another option, YTZ-BKL-DET-YTZ, but I'm not sure what the potential traffic to Detroit is like these days.

EDIT: This would be after the preclearance is put in at YTZ.
 
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I won't address some of the destinations you proposed because I think it's a bit silly to think their plans include Iceland and London, especially in q-400s.

However, the idea of code sharing is something that could happen in the future, but I don't think it would be with Westjet or Southwest. Porter would be far more likely to link itself with a similar type of brand. Westjet and Southwest are a bit hokey for Porter. The Oneworld alliance might be as close as they could get to a similar standard, however, I think they would have a better chance at becoming a member of SkyTeam based on some behind the scenes relationships Porter has. The other option is Virgin America/Atlantic. Don Carty is the Chairman of Virgin America and sits on Porter's board.

I think airlines might be reluctant to let Porter into their groups until they know for sure this is an airline that is in it long term. These agreements are costly and take a lot of time to set up. I can't imagine they're in Porter's short term future (5 years down the road let's say).


Now to address some of the destinations you mentioned. I think Porter believes that their brand is exportable. It can be started up in any area where high traffic between a few cities is common. So yes, out west and out east seem to be ripe. West might be tough because of westjet, but they were able to take on AC in the YOW-YUL-Toronto corridor, so I don't think they'd be too concerned. Start-up costs in a new city would be immense though. Space, hangars, employees, etc cost a lot, especially if there are plans to make that place a hub. Personally, I think they're going to max out the potential routes in places they've already set up shop. So you're going to see some YUL or YOW based flights to the US before you see Edmonton as a hub. Also, Halifax might act as a hub for the east coast (we're already seeing that with a dedicated route between Halifax and St John's). For US cities that are remaining from YTZ, Philly and Washington are obvious. Cincinnati and Detroit are a maybe. I wouldn't go to either to be honest. Delta uses Cincinnati as a hub, so perhaps down the road it could act as a connection destination. Seasonally, Myrtle Beach could be an option. They've flown down there before, so it is definitely in reach. Just a matter of whether they can make a profit while carrying so much fuel and so much baggage.
 
I won't address some of the destinations you proposed because I think it's a bit silly to think their plans include Iceland and London, especially in q-400s.
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I came up with those when I was looking at Iqaluit, realizing that the Q400 could reach them and that nobody connects internationally to the north.

However, the idea of code sharing is something that could happen in the future, but I don't think it would be with Westjet or Southwest. Porter would be far more likely to link itself with a similar type of brand. Westjet and Southwest are a bit hokey for Porter. The Oneworld alliance might be as close as they could get to a similar standard
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I was looking at westjet and southwest primarily because they connect well to the existing porter destinations. Porter doesn't really compete directly with Westjet at the moment, except perhaps a little in the Halifax-Toronto O&D market (and now St. John's) -- anyone proceeding farther west from Toronto is going to take Westjet. The Porter and Westjet route maps complement each other, especially if you look to connecting westward through Thunder Bay.

It can be started up in any area where high traffic between a few cities is common. So yes, out west and out east seem to be ripe. West might be tough because of westjet, but they were able to take on AC in the YOW-YUL-Toronto corridor, so I don't think they'd be too concerned.
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Out west might be difficult because they would be competing directly with AC and Westjet on the big routes without something to make them different like YTZ. It might be better in a couple of years, though, once a number of potential customers have had a chance to try out Porter when they visit the East, thus making them more inclined to try Porter when it does arrived.
 
Having flown Porter this past week for the first time, I'm a quick convert to both Porter and the continuation of the Island Airport.
It was quicker, less harried to get through security, and the waiting lounge was calm and relaxing.
On top of that, the complimentary espresso/cappuccino, bottled water or juice beat the $4 Starbucks or Tim Hortons at Pearson.
Also there was loads of leg room on the Porter flight, and the stewardesses were the most friendly of any Canadian airline (IMHO).

I only wish I had this option for business travel out West.
Winnipeg might be in range for these aircraft, but I don't fly there on business, and I'm not sure about overall demand.
For other locations out West, one is looking at an overnight trip, because of the distance.
Porter's advantage is providing daytrips for business travellers that are 2 or 3 hours less time-consuming than going through Pearson.
I wonder whether this competitive advantage would hold true similarly for destinations requiring an overnight stay.
 
Winnipeg might be in range for these aircraft
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Given that it is 150 miles farther than Halifax and against the wind, I think it is beyond the range of the Q400 from the island. They would have to stop to refuel to get to Winnipeg.

I wonder whether this competitive advantage would hold true similarly for destinations requiring an overnight stay.
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Not having to go through Pearson is a benefit from the point of view of stress levels. It is a lot quieter and a lot less walking at the island. Many western destinations (most places besides Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) already require a transfer for many of the existing flights from Pearson, especially if you want to avoid paying very expensive prices.

To get to Saskatoon, Westjet often wants to route you through Edmonton or Calgary. So a stop in Thunder Bay isn't going to be that big a problem for Porter.
 
sjc said:
I came up with those when I was looking at Iqaluit, realizing that the Q400 could reach them and that nobody connects internationally to the north.



I was looking at westjet and southwest primarily because they connect well to the existing porter destinations. Porter doesn't really compete directly with Westjet at the moment, except perhaps a little in the Halifax-Toronto O&D market (and now St. John's) -- anyone proceeding farther west from Toronto is going to take Westjet. The Porter and Westjet route maps complement each other, especially if you look to connecting westward through Thunder Bay.



Out west might be difficult because they would be competing directly with AC and Westjet on the big routes without something to make them different like YTZ. It might be better in a couple of years, though, once a number of potential customers have had a chance to try out Porter when they visit the East, thus making them more inclined to try Porter when it does arrived.
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ya I just don't see it (re: up north/iceland/london and an alliance with westjet). Having worked for them and knowing what I know (and I'll admit, it's not like I have Bob Deluce on speed dial) there are some things that will happen and others that won't. The airline is still soooo young. We forget it's only 3 years old. Considering how fast things are changing in the economy and the airline industry in particular, there's no point guessing what will happen beyond 5 years down the line (maybe even 3 years).
 
Porter isn't going to fly off to Iceland, the Arctic or Europe. If you want to know what Porter's next move is, have a look at their most director competitor: AC Jazz. Jazz has hubs in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. And its focus cities include Ottawa, Halifax, Winnipeg and Edmonton. Looking at this map, it makes sense for Porter to compete in Eastern Canada by building new hubs in Ottawa and Halifax and have Montreal and Quebec city as focus cities (since Porter is unlikely to serve northern Quebec like Jazz). This way Porter could target all of Jazz's Northern Ontario connections to Toronto and Ottawa and all of Jazz's Atlantic connections to Halifax. Building Ottawa and Halifax as a hub would also allow Porter to deploy larger aircraft (maybe the Cseries) between these hubs.

Expansion in the West is unlikely unless they are willing to completely port Porter's business model and set up a virtually independent operation to compete with Westjet. And that's highly unlikely. Despite the myth of Porter's appeal to business travelers (which has more to do with location than anything else), Porter does compete significantly on price (especially when total travel costs are taken into account). It's much easier to take on Air Canada than Westjet in this regard.
 
^Makes total sense, kEiThZ.

SJC, you're enthusiasm is wonderful but I think you've completely missed the point of Porter. (At least to this loyal consumer).

They are simple. They are logical. They are quick. They're a one-man show.

I think you may be proposing a massive over-expansion that goes AGAINST the current success of this company. Competing with international airlines is not the way to go. They'll just become like the other airlines most of its customers are trying to avoid.
 
It looks like I'm not the only one that thinks it might be worthwhile to look at how Westjet and Porter could complement each other...

Westjet plans to raise $172.5 million

WestJet Airlines Ltd. plans to raise up to $172.5-million in an equity offering.... "WestJet intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to finance WestJet's capital expenditures, including future aircraft financing activities, and for general corporate purposes," the airline said of the "bought deal."

Last month, WestJet chief executive officer Sean Durfy said the Calgary-based carrier has "kicked the tires" of Porter Airlines Inc. "Porter's got a business model that seems to be sustainable. But are we out actively pursuing Porter? I would say no," Mr. Durfy said.
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^ That fund raising was pre-planned to help finance new Westjet aircraft buys. It would not be enough dough to buy out Porter. And I am sure they are looking at co-operating, like any good business would. But I am not sure they'll find sufficient grounds to co-operate on. Porter's business model aimed at Jazz has Westjet as collateral damage. Unless Westjet is willing to cede whole chunks of eastern Canada to Porter, it's unlikely they could co-operate. What could Porter offer Westjet in return?
 
I can see a situation where Porter's model of serving small underserved markets can be replicated elsewhere. For example the Edmonton/Calgary/Red Deer triangle, throw in a few other destinations including USA, or Vancouver/Victoria/Seattle, even a maritimes grouping, etc etc. While Westjet focuses it's attention on serving the major markets Vancouver/Edmonton/Calgary/Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal and expands it's horizons to international destinations.

I guess in a way Porter would be a classier Jazz to Westjet's Air Canada
 
^ But there's nothing stopping Westjet from buying a few Q400s and setting up a similar service right now. And they do could do it with their traditional discount service model. They don't need Porter for that. For what they'd spend on 3-4 737s they could get a fleet of Q400s as large as Porter and get the operation going. Even here in the East, Air Canada is considering bringing back it's Rapidair service to compete with Porter. Co-operation is not always the solution for a business. Sometime they have to battle their competitor.
 
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