Toronto Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport | ?m | ?s | Ports Toronto | Arup

There are few significant terrain issues along the Hwy 7/Havelock sub corridor. The biggest elevation change is west of Peterborough - the Oakridge Moraine, but RR surveyors picked the easiest route, as they likely did for most of the old line - that's why it is so twisty. East of P'boro the hills are 'drumlins' mostly glacial till. North of Kingston it gets into the Frontenac Ridge which is an extension of the Shield; rocky and would require blasting but no great elevation. The land is rolling north of Cobourg/Belleville - Ontario's 'Rawdon Hills' - but they peter out farther north. I think a lot of the hilly country that runs east-west south of Rice Lake towards the Napanee area is the old post glacial shoreline (Lake Iroquois). I think if some archivist had a track profile for the old subdivision it would reveal it to be quite flat.
 
I'm interested in the more meta discussion regarding Air Transport in Canada in general. Porter is pretty niche in the East coast/business travel market.

However on the whole...
- Air Canada is down ~55% from it's peak on Jan 31 2020
- West Jet is selling off is 767 fleet (note they have the 787 still so they are not getting out of the LD travel market)
- Smaller airlines such as Porter have yet to resume operations
- Air travel in Canada is way way down.

And yet reading some commentators. AC is being touted as a buy low with the expectation that the stock price will rebound at some point post Covid. In fact many of the benefits that the purchase of Aeroplan were supposed to offer were not realized due to covid, so there's that. If the 9/11 experience taught us anything is that air travel will bounce back, take for example YYZ which saw a drop following 9/11 but the rebound since then has maintained a similar growth pattern that has existed for decades.

So while I agree virtual/zoom meetings will reduce travel somewhat, I don't think it will have that great of an effect. There are still trade shows, conferences, etc, etc, and the personal touch of meeting new people, making new contacts, etc will never go away. Will Porter itself survive? Yeah probably, if they can price themselves competitively there are still massive numbers of people travelling between YYZ/YUL/YOW. Perhaps the biggest blow to Porter will be some of it's more far flung destinations such as Timmins/St Ste Marie.
 
9/11 rebound was due to terrorism being a blown out of proportion problem. Pandemic depressed travel will persist for quite some time. Of course there is also pent up demand. I think a lot of people will be desperate to get abroad when eventually that becomes practical (as we have seen, many of our ministers have already been indulging).
 
Business travel won’t come back for the next two to three years. The biggest group of travellers abroad are retirees who see COVID-19 as a threat. Until the bigger population will be vaccinated it will be end of this year or summer. At least for Canada and US. Other countries might take much longer. If other vaccines get approved it will be faster. Other countries might need more time.
Independent from vaccination is the unemployment situation. About 20% are out of work. Many more need to save money and have budget to travel.
Bottom line: Only with massive subsidies Airlines will survive. Airbus is likely to be out of business over the next years. Canada might decide to nationalise Air Canada. As every country will try to maintain one airline for their national interest.

What does it mean for WestJet, Transat, Sunwings, Port? I thing they will be all gone.
 
Business travel won’t come back for the next two to three years. The biggest group of travellers abroad are retirees who see COVID-19 as a threat. Until the bigger population will be vaccinated it will be end of this year or summer. At least for Canada and US. Other countries might take much longer. If other vaccines get approved it will be faster. Other countries might need more time.
Independent from vaccination is the unemployment situation. About 20% are out of work. Many more need to save money and have budget to travel.
Bottom line: Only with massive subsidies Airlines will survive. Airbus is likely to be out of business over the next years. Canada might decide to nationalise Air Canada. As every country will try to maintain one airline for their national interest.

What does it mean for WestJet, Transat, Sunwings, Port? I thing they will be all gone.

- I'm willing to take a bet that the Feds do not nationalize Air Canada by 2025. 2021 will be a flat line for growth, 2022 will start to see some growth and by 2023/24 I think we could be back to pre covid numbers.
 
Honestly I'm hopeful this will be the last delay. May 19th will be well into the seasonal decline of COVID and vaccines will be making a huge impact on transmission at that point.

Porter is going to have to wait until trans-border restrictions are lifted though before it can really restart given how much of it's business is to the US.
 
Statement by MP Vaughan.


Statement on the Toronto Port Authority​


"The Minister of Transportation has reaffirmed our government's commitment to not reopen the Tripartite Agreement as the Toronto Port Authority tackles its substantial financial challenges and explores engaging a third, and potentially private, party to run the Toronto Billy Bishop Airport."

- Adam Vaughan M.P, Spadina-Fort York.



Today's announcement that the Toronto Port Authority is seeking private sector capital and operators to solve its financial difficulties is very concerning. While it may be easy to understand these challenges as related to the pandemic, there are more complex and serious issues at hand. It is more serious than just a simple call for a private-sector operator. There is significant public interest at stake, and our government continues to watch this file closely from several different perspectives.

The Toronto Port Authority has been selling off public assets in recent years in a bid to restructure their finances. The land around their head office has been transacted and rezoned to acquire capital and operating funds, and assets at the airport itself have also been sold as part of this restructuring.

Today's announcement is the latest move to privatize or outsource public assets in order to sustain viability. It raises several concerns. All of these issues will need to be assessed with an eye to protect employees of the airport, the travelling public, the impact on airlines operating out of the waterfront airport, and most importantly, the impact the facility has on the surrounding neighbourhood and the waterfront.

As the Member of Parliament for the area, I am very concerned about today's announcement. The potential for a Highway 407-style deal is obvious, in particular, because of the precarious economic situation that the airline/airport sector now finds itself in. The pandemic cannot be used as an excuse to relinquish what little public control there is over this facility. Any new deal cannot lead to the potential loss or compromise of oversight, safety and other operational considerations.

Similar proposals in the past show just how critical the challenge is now. A previous move to privatize and contract-out operations at Pearson International Airport were stopped precisely because of these sorts of issues. The public interest here is paramount. The Port Authority's struggles should not be resolved at the expense of Toronto's waterfront. The public's right to access and enjoy the waterfront remains central to how our federal government evaluates all developments in the harbour and beyond along Toronto's lakefront.


Preserving Our Waterfront

Our government is committed to a clean, green waterfront for all in Toronto. To this end, billions have been invested in naturalizing the Don River, creating new parks, enhancing flood protection, and building more transit and affordable housing. Additionally, our government has delivered new supports for cultural organizations for both capital and operating programs in the harbour. This vision of the lakefront is protected by the Tripartite Agreement, which frames airport use and operation.

I have spoken with Transportation Minister Omar Alghabra, and he has given me his full assurance that the Tripartite Agreement will not be re-opened as part of this process. The Minister reaffirmed our government's commitment to respect and adhere to the terms of the agreement between the City, the Port Authority and the Federal Government. It is an agreement that clearly prohibits jets and runway expansion.


Employees of Billy Bishop Airport

The Port Authority has a responsibility to its employees. Collective agreements and workers' rights must be in the foreground as a concern. Third-party operators will need to improve the bottom line for the Port, while also realizing a return on their investment. A private operator will either have to cut costs or boost revenues to realize a new business model on-site. Layoffs and reduced wages are a predictable outcome. As a public agency, the Port should not be selling off public assets or contracting out public operations if it means job losses or reduced wages. This would be an unacceptable outcome of this crisis.


Impacts on Travellers

In the absence of layoffs, the other revenue source for a third-party operator is to grow existing revenue streams; either through direct passenger fees or hidden fees charged to airline operators that eventually get passed on to passengers. The more layers of managerial oversight, the greater the costs that will have to be generated to realize a return on investment. If layoffs and wage cuts are not the solution, consumers will be the ones responsible. This is a serious concern and needs to be addressed as the airport is a public service, and the public should not be subsidizing private operators using a facility that taxpayers themselves have funded and created.


Airport Monopoly

A single airline already has substantial control over slots, route options and ground operations at the airport. This is a public facility, and it should not operate to the benefit of one airline at the expense of competitors. Any new business deal to sell or contract airport operations must respect the need to protect and develop an open, fair and competitive environment. The process must not concentrate control over the airport and place all elements of the facility under a single owner. The process must protect the public interest.


As Member of Parliament for the riding where the island airport operates and the Port Authority is headquartered, I will continue to advocate for the public interest and the residents of the community surrounding the facility.

The health of the people and the environment, and the integrity of public governance of the Port must drive decision-making around this proposal. The Tripartite Agreement is the governing document that frames and regulates this discourse. I am thankful to the Minister and the Prime Minister for their support of our community and the principle of a clean, green waterfront for all.


Adam Vaughan
Member of Parliament
Spadina-Fort York
 

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