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Baby, we got a bubble!?

I ran the numbers from TREB. The increase was at 15 percent in C1 from the start of 2012. I only looked up C1-1 bedrooms for the time being. The numbers are quite substantial considering rents were flat for the 15 years prior.
 
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drewp said:
I ran the numbers from TREB. The increase was at 15 percent in C1 from the start of 2012. I only looked up C1-1 bedrooms for the time being. The numbers are quite substantial considering rents were flat for the 15 years prior.
Click to expand...

Why did you say 20% or more if you meant 15%? This is 100% made up. Not sure what else to say really...
 
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drewp said:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...es/news2011/pdf/nr_rental_report_09-12_10.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q4-2012.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2013.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2014.pdf

The greatest increase was 2011 to the end of 2012. Keep in mind most units coming on the market are smaller and don't include parking. Depending on how and when you calculate it, there has been an obvious increase in the numbers.
Click to expand...

So to be clear: you made up the 20% or more since 2012 and the backtrack to 15% was also fabricated. Now you're simply saying that rents have increased since 2011. I agree.
 
From 2011 to the end of 2012 there was an increase of 19.8 percent as shown 2011/2112 graph. Depending on what quarter report you use there is evidence that at one point it was 15%. Again, this supports the notion that rents did increase at one point 20%, which is what I stated from the beginning. Does that apply now? Based on the stats, they have actually decreased a bit in 2014. Which goes back to my original point that the resale market has eclipsed 2012 numbers. Resale and rental markets have a greater correlation than some people think. When one suffers a bit the other picks up the slack, because there is not enough of new completions that can support the amount of people moving to the core. The issue is when both of these markets suffer at the same time, and immigration can be a contributing factor.
 
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drewp said:
From 2011 to the end of 2012 there was an increase of 19.8 percent as shown 2011/2112 graph. Depending on what quarter report you use there is evidence that at one point it was 15%. Again, this supports the notion that rents did increase at one point 20%, which is what I stated from the beginning. Does that apply now? Based on the stats, they have actually decreased a bit in 2014. Which goes back to my original point that the resale market has eclipsed 2012 numbers. Resale and rental markets have a greater correlation than some people think. When one suffers a bit the other picks up the slack, because there is not enough of new completions that can support the amount of people moving to the core. The issue is when both of these markets suffer at the same time, and immigration can be a contributing factor.
Click to expand...

That's not at all what you said. This is what you said:

drewp said:
Considering rents increased in the core 20 percent, if not more since 2012 does not mean there will be a downturn.
Click to expand...

This is rob ford levels of outright lying lol..
 
And unlike rob ford, I am willing to admit the mistake I made was from 2011 to 2012. Hope that makes you feel better.
 
TORONTO, January 7, 2015 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington
announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 92,867 residential sales
through the TorontoMLS system in 2014, including 4,446 in December. The calendar
year 2014 sales result represented a 6.7 per cent increase over the 2013 sales figure of
87,049 and was just short of the record set in 2007.
"TREB's 2014 sales figures are a testament to the importance Greater Toronto Area
households continue to place on home ownership. GTA households realize that home
purchases have been a quality long-term investment. While home prices certainly
increased substantially in 2014, the purchase of an average priced home remained
affordable, in terms of the average household's ability to comfortably cover their monthly
mortgage payments," said Mr. Etherington.
The average selling price continued to grow on a year-over-year basis in calendar year
2014, with an 8.4 per cent increase over calendar year 2013 to $566,726. This included
a seven per cent increase in the December 2014 average selling price to $556,602.
Throughout 2014, annual increases in the average selling price and the MLS® HPI
Composite Benchmark were consistently reported on a monthly basis for most market
segments, from detached homes through to condominium apartments.
"The strong price growth we experienced in 2014 can be explained with two words:
listings shortage. The constrained supply of listings was especially evident for low-rise
home types like singles, semis and town houses. The number of households looking to
purchase these home types increased, while the number of homes from which they
could choose decreased. This situation resulted in more competition between buyers
and more aggressive offers," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
 
Condo George said:
TORONTO, January 7, 2015 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington
announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 92,867 residential sales
through the TorontoMLS system in 2014, including 4,446 in December. The calendar
year 2014 sales result represented a 6.7 per cent increase over the 2013 sales figure of
87,049 and was just short of the record set in 2007.
"TREB's 2014 sales figures are a testament to the importance Greater Toronto Area
households continue to place on home ownership. GTA households realize that home
purchases have been a quality long-term investment. While home prices certainly
increased substantially in 2014, the purchase of an average priced home remained
affordable, in terms of the average household's ability to comfortably cover their monthly
mortgage payments," said Mr. Etherington.
The average selling price continued to grow on a year-over-year basis in calendar year
2014, with an 8.4 per cent increase over calendar year 2013 to $566,726. This included
a seven per cent increase in the December 2014 average selling price to $556,602.
Throughout 2014, annual increases in the average selling price and the MLS® HPI
Composite Benchmark were consistently reported on a monthly basis for most market
segments, from detached homes through to condominium apartments.
"The strong price growth we experienced in 2014 can be explained with two words:
listings shortage. The constrained supply of listings was especially evident for low-rise
home types like singles, semis and town houses. The number of households looking to
purchase these home types increased, while the number of homes from which they
could choose decreased. This situation resulted in more competition between buyers
and more aggressive offers," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Click to expand...

Interesting to note the relative weakness in sales and price of townhomes & semi-detached in the 416 versus condos and detached which had huge gains.

Semi-detached sales dropped 5.9% and prices 4.4%. That is surprising given the momentum of the real estate market. Any insights? I thought townhomes and semi-detached would be amoung the hottest sellers as an alternative to detached housing which is unaffordable for most people in the 416.

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2014/mw1412.pdf
 
I think its simply a matter of lower volume. There are many more detached homes and condos in the city than there are semi-detached homes and townhouses. I think there just weren't the usual number of semis or towns that were listed on the market to be sold, making any absolute change seem that much more pronounced percentage-wise.

...and as I always like to do, break out the average and median sale prices of detached homes in Toronto by west, central and east to illustrate that there still are options to buy a single family detached home in the city if you simply look slightly to the west or east.

Toronto West (W01 to W10): average price $718,963 / median price $612,000
Toronto Central (C01 to C15): average price $1,558,134 / median price $1,325,000
Toronto East (E01 to E11): average price $664,880 / median price $590,000
 
James said:
I think its simply a matter of lower volume. There are many more detached homes and condos in the city than there are semi-detached homes and townhouses. I think there just weren't the usual number of semis or towns that were listed on the market to be sold, making any absolute change seem that much more pronounced percentage-wise.

...and as I always like to do, break out the average and median sale prices of detached homes in Toronto by west, central and east to illustrate that there still are options to buy a single family detached home in the city if you simply look slightly to the west or east.

Toronto West (W01 to W10): average price $718,963 / median price $612,000
Toronto Central (C01 to C15): average price $1,558,134 / median price $1,325,000
Toronto East (E01 to E11): average price $664,880 / median price $590,000
Click to expand...

Wouldn't less listings (i.e. less supply) result in higher prices? I understand your explanation as it relates to the sales decline, but not the price decline.
 
James said:
I think its simply a matter of lower volume. There are many more detached homes and condos in the city than there are semi-detached homes and townhouses. I think there just weren't the usual number of semis or towns that were listed on the market to be sold, making any absolute change seem that much more pronounced percentage-wise.

...and as I always like to do, break out the average and median sale prices of detached homes in Toronto by west, central and east to illustrate that there still are options to buy a single family detached home in the city if you simply look slightly to the west or east.

Toronto West (W01 to W10): average price $718,963 / median price $612,000
Toronto Central (C01 to C15): average price $1,558,134 / median price $1,325,000
Toronto East (E01 to E11): average price $664,880 / median price $590,000
Click to expand...

Much of the "affordable" (ha!) housing stock is complete crap in this city. It's one thing if you have the money to gut and rebuild, but many buyers are just frothing as part of the MUST.OWN.HOUSE frenzy, and totally unprepared for the costs they are about to face when they discover their home inspection (if they were smart enough not to waive one) didn't turn up half the stuff that it should have. There are smart buyers, for sure, without a doubt. But I think a great majority are just barely making it, and only buying because it is the Canadian thing to do. After all, renting a place to live is throwing money down the drain. But paying hundreds of thousands in interest and property taxes to bankers and government for two decades or more to "rent" money apparently is not.

Look, Toronto is a great city, but let's be real. No pile of crumbling brick and rotting bug-and-mold infested tree fort is worth anywhere near what these people are paying for them. The market is simply stoned on its own fumes. You simply cannot have stagnant wages, rising interest rates, record-setting levels of personal debt, and expect the housing values (and people's ability to pay them) to rise ad infinitum. Something has to correct.
 
Migos said:
Wouldn't less listings (i.e. less supply) result in higher prices? I understand your explanation as it relates to the sales decline, but not the price decline.
Click to expand...

My guess for lower supply but lower sales price is simply variability in the overall quality of semi or townhouses on the market. Obviously this is just my personal theory. If, for example, there were more recently renovated semis sold in December 2013 versus more original-condition semis sold in December 2014, that could dramatically skew the average/median sales figures.
 
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