Baby, we got a bubble!?

[interested]

Ka1....you are correct.
Parking seperate. Locker seperate. Additional "levies". Hook up fees. I even had in 1 condo the appliances supplied but on the statement of adjustments the HST on the $3K of appliances was an "adjustment".

Previously a lot was included....a bit like the airlines. You now pay to check a bag. You want to eat...."extra".

All designed to put forth the lowest possible price.

On another topic, it seems from Condo George that people wanted 11 Wellesley. I have to admit, I thought the 1 bedroom Stanley layout I believe, was very good for what it was...489 sq.ft.
I guess we will have to wait out the 10 day recission period but seems either people still believe prices will rise or rents(which I don't believe) and I guess we will see in 3-5 years whether people were brilliant or unwise.

 

[hardcap]

my guess there unwise.
what goes up must come down its the law of physics.
Canada real estate downturn isn't going to be like US shock and awe. its going to be 7-10 yr downturn avg 2-3%yrly price correction. price plateau in Q4 2014, downturn will start mid Q3 2015

 

[interested]

my guess there unwise.
what goes up must come down its the law of physics.
Canada real estate downturn isn't going to be like US shock and awe. its going to be 7-10 yr downturn avg 2-3%yrly price correction. price plateau in Q4 2014, downturn will start mid Q3 2015

Why will it go up and plateau in Q4 2014 and downturn mid Q3 2015?
I assume there are some events you are expecting and basing this on.

 

[CN Tower]

Why will it go up and plateau in Q4 2014 and downturn mid Q3 2015?
I assume there are some events you are expecting and basing this on.

The notion of handing over my precious capital to someone for 4-5 years without the practical means of getting it back in the interim is counter intuitive to my basic investment philosophies. Furthermore, said company is generating a guaranteed fee profit from it from the moment the shovel hits the dirt. And to top it off, once the building is complete and my investment can theoretically yield me a return, that return equates to less than the current yield on the highest quality REIT units trading today without the instant liquidity. This is the private equity model except private equity returns are in the 20% range historically and are generally not as speculative in their assumptions.

And people voluntarily do this why? I'm not ignorant to the fact that there have been some healthy returns from this strategy in the past however the rate of appreciation has slowed to the point of it being non existent now.

I'd like to hear first hand stories of people here (other than George) who bought condo units since 2010 who have successfully sold them them in the past year or so and what sort of all in profit they've generated from those sales.

 

[interested]

^^^^^
CN Tower.... a very logical post.
I don't remember exactly but I believe around 2010 avg. downtown TO condo must have hit $500+/sq.ft. In any event, that was the $ amount for me at which it became tenuous at best to be an investor.
Now I believe those who bought in 2010 and 2011 are likely still making a profit on their sales...though once you factor in realty costs, LTT, soft costs etc. I am not sure there is much left over for the "investors"

 

[TheKingEast]

^^^^^
CN Tower.... a very logical post.
I don't remember exactly but I believe around 2010 avg. downtown TO condo must have hit $500+/sq.ft. In any event, that was the $ amount for me at which it became tenuous at best to be an investor.
Now I believe those who bought in 2010 and 2011 are likely still making a profit on their sales...though once you factor in realty costs, LTT, soft costs etc. I am not sure there is much left over for the "investors"

If you bought the right unit at the right time back in 2010, there is still some good money to be made.

 

[Roy G Biv]

The fact that Bay St. is in high demand highlights the disconnect between the Toronto real estate market and Toronto itself . I don't know anyone who wants to live on Bay St.

 

[CITY_LOVER]

The fact that Bay St. is in high demand highlights the disconnect between the Toronto real estate market and Toronto itself . I don't know anyone who wants to live on Bay St.

Can you elaborate on what you mean when you say no one would want to live on Bay Street? From the people you know, do any of them want to live anywhere else in the downtown core (Spadina to Jarvis, Bloor to Lakefront)? What makes Bay Street so unappealing compared to other areas of downtown?

 

[TheKingEast]

Bay/College is one of the best corners in the city IMO. The stretch along Bay from Bloor past College is a great walk.

 

[Condo George]

Average price of single home in Toronto shoots up 13% to $965,000

Shortage of listings continues to plague market, drive high price growth. Leading the real estate pack in terms of price growth were semi-detached houses, with the average Toronto semi selling for $702,000.

Active listings were down 8.4 per cent, a persistent problem which has been driving significant price growth. This home on Dupont St. (at Ossington), with a unique coach house n back, sold for $1 million in April 2014.

Active listings were down 8.4 per cent, a persistent problem which has been driving significant price growth. This home on Dupont St. (at Ossington), with a unique coach house in back, sold for $1 million in April 2014.

By: Susan Pigg Business Reporter, Published on Tue May 06 2014

The average price of a detached home in the City of Toronto hit close to $1 million in April as the GTA continues to be plagued by a shortage of new listings.


That shortage of homes for sale helped pushed prices up an average of more than 10 per cent from April of 2013. The average sale price of a home across the GTA hit $577,898 last month, according to figures released Tuesday by the Toronto Real Estate Board.


Sales were up just 1.8 per cent, year over year.


Leading the real estate pack in terms of price growth were semi-detached houses. The average sale price across the GTA was up 11.6 per cent over April 2013. The 18 per cent jump in prices just in the City of Toronto sent the average sale price of a semi to $702,332, according to the TREB figures.




Next in line in terms of price spikes were detached homes where prices were up 11.3 per cent — 13.2 per cent in the City of Toronto, where the average sale price of a detached in April was $965,670.


Active listings, however, even for the first month of peak spring market, were down 8.4 per cent, a persistent problem which has been driving significant price growth, especially in 416 neighbourhoods close to the core and transit lines.


TREB president Dianne Usher blamed Toronto’s double land transfer tax for the fact more folks are choosing to stay put and renovate rather than sell.


As well, “above-trend home sales in the years leading up to the recession have meant that many households who purchased during this period simply aren’t ready to move again.â€


But also skewing the numbers is the desperation of buyers, frantic to get into the Toronto market before prices shoot further out of sight.


One, in North Toronto, reached a ludicrous new level in late April when 72 people — double the previous record for a bidding war frenzy for a house in the 416 region — registered offers on a Glencairn Ave. fixer upper.


Lawrence Park fixer-upper gets 72 offers


It went for $1.366 million. That was almost double the $699,000 list price, which the realtor acknowledged he deliberately underpriced by at least $400,000 “mainly to create buzz.â€


A decade ago the average detached house in the 416 region sold for just $486,489.


The April number pushes Toronto further into the stratosphere of Canada’s priciest real estate market, Vancouver. There the average detached sold for close to $1.2 million in April, a drop from the record $1.36 million the west-coast city recorded in February.


“Until we see a marked and sustained increase in listings, we should expect to see the annual rate of price growth above the long-term norm,†said Jason Mercer in a statement Tuesday, TREB’s senior manager of market analysis.


Sales of detached homes were up just 2.5 per cent across the GTA, with sale prices averaging $730,328 — an average of $645,179 in the 905 region.


Semi-detached homes across the GTA were down 5.4 per cent in April, year over year, but prices were up 18 per cent in the City of Toronto, to an average of $702,332. The average price of a 905 semi was up 8 per cent to $443,318.


Townhouse sales were down 8.3 per cent GTA-wide, but prices were up 14.7 per cent in Toronto to an average of $498,083. The 905 average sale price for a townhouse was $410,270, up 9.6 per cent.


Condo sales were up 3.2 per cent. That saw the average sale price in the 416 region come in just 1.8 per cent over last April, at $384,758. Resale condo prices in the 905 regions, however, were up 8.1 per cent to $296,078.


The MLS benchmark house price was up 7 per cent year over year. That indicator strips out fluctuations due to a sale of, say, more high-end homes in a month that could skew the sales figures.

 

[Condo George]

Alternative investment for me.

Nickel to Rally 20% Further Amid Indonesia Ban, Survey Shows

Nickel is poised to rally a further 20 percent this year as Indonesia’s ban on exports of ore push the market toward a global shortage and unrest increases in Ukraine, a survey of analysts and traders shows. Prices for the best-performing industrial metal since January will climb to $22,000 a metric ton by the end of 2014, from $18,507 today, according to the median of 13 estimates in a survey by Bloomberg News. Benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange already surged 33 percent this year, following a 19 percent slump in 2013. Indonesia, the top nickel miner, barred shipments of raw ore in January to help foster a domestic processing industry. Russia, the second-biggest producer of the refined metal, faces the prospect of tougher economic sanctions as the U.S. and European Union blame President Vladimir Putin’s government for fomenting unrest in its neighbor. “Nickel has strong price momentum and is attracting strong speculative interest,” said Gavin Wendt, the founder and senior resource analyst at Sydney-based Mine Life Pty., who has followed the mining industry for more than two decades. Macquarie Group Ltd. forecasts a deficit of nickel in the second half of 2014 year and large shortfalls from next next year as expectations that Indonesia may ease its ban fade, according to a report dated April 28. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley also project a deficit in 2015. Global demand may exceed supply as early as next quarter, the largest refined nickel producer, Moscow-based OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, said on April 7. Pig Iron Indonesia’s ban affects as much as 25 percent of global supply by reducing ore used in China to make nickel pig iron, an alternative to the refined metal, according to Goldman. This has resulted in ore costs rising by 90 percent this year, pushing nickel pig iron and the refined metal higher too, according to the bank. “Positive momentum is based on solid supply-demand fundamentals and the worsening political situation in Ukraine is adding further fuel to the fire,” Wendt said. The price range in the survey was $18,276 to $29,000. Futures on the LME rose 1.4 percent by 12:24 p.m. in London, heading for the highest closing price since February 2013. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan’s biggest producer of nickel, said on April 21 it was among those who had underestimated the impact of Indonesia’s ban on global supplies in January. Ukraine Crisis Russia accounts for 12 percent of global nickel supply, according to Goldman. Ukraine is seeking to dislodge rebels from its eastern industrial heartland as violence that’s also spread to the Black Sea gateway of Odessa threatens to loosen its control of the regions. Total market open interest, or the number of futures outstanding, for LME nickel futures contracts jumped 30 percent to a record 306,767 contracts this year. The metal remains “the largest long” among LME metals, with bets on rising prices accounting for 50 percent of open interest, the highest in a decade, according to Marex Spectron Group, a London-based broker. The metal’s advance compares with a 2.7 percent increase in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials this year. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities added 1.5 percent over the same period and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index advanced 2.6 percent. In the longer term, the price rally driven by the ore ban won’t be sustainable as China aggressively expands blast furnace nickel pig iron capacity in Indonesia over the next two years, Goldman said. Vladimir Potanin, the billionaire who runs Norilsk Nickel, said on April 24 that concerns that supplies of the metal will be disrupted by sanctions are overstated. Anti-Russian sanctions aren’t so far affecting Norilsk’s business, he said. http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...rcent-further-amid-indonesia-ban-survey-shows

 

[James]

It definitely seems like sales activity is picking up...and as noted in TREB's April 2014 market watch, listings are down from 2013 but sales have increased, along with price. The long winter likely has delayed the typical spring thaw. It'd be interesting to see if this trend will continue into May. I'm predicting a short, hot summer...both in terms of weather and real estate activity.

 

[Eug]

I don't know about the others here, but I have no interest whatsoever in dubious stock market "tips" in this thread.

 

[CN Tower]

I don't know about the others here, but I have no interest whatsoever in dubious stock market "tips" in this thread.

I have no interest in his condo market "tips" either!

 

[ksun]

For the question on why condos around Bay/College command a premium over most areas of downtown, I'm wondering if it's: 1) Simply because it's Bay Street - there is a certain association with that name; 2) The fact that it's the middle of three main north-south downtown streets (Yonge, Bay, Uni. Ave) and have access to two subway lines within a 5 minute walk; 3) You are in the geographical centre of the downtown core (i.e. Bloor-Yorkville, Church, Front East/St. Lawrence Area, Entertainment District, UofT, Ryerson, Eaton Centre, the Financial District, ACC and Rogers Centre, the main hospitals on University Ave, etc. are all about a 20 minute walk from here max; 4) The higher prices/sq. ft. are in the newer condos and there's only so much more that can be built on Bay Street - a symbolic street that is made even more exclusive by the fact that it runs only in the downtown core (i.e. Lakeshore to Davenport); and finally 5) Outside of Bloor-Yorkville and certain small pockets/buildings outside of downtown, where else can high rise condos command a premium greater than Bay Street? I can see other areas getting closer to and perhaps matching Bay Street's prices (like certain buildings off of Yonge in the future or in King West) but perhaps not exceed Bay Street's rates (Bloor-Yorkville and the few 5-star luxury towers excepted).

Interesting theory.
1) not sure what prestige Bay st holds. Bay st between Dundas and Bloor is easily the most boring stretch in the entire downtown, isn't it? There is practically nothing but condos - which means a lot of supply. And most of those condos look sterile.
2) Agree. great location for commute. Can't beat that.
3) yes but honestly speaking there is much less stuff north of Dundas to see and do, although downtown extends to Davenport... but how often does one really shop on Bloor/Yorkville? I used to live at Yonge/Bloor, and since I moved to south of Queen, I seldom go anywhere north of College. For most people, true downtown is really between Front and College.
4) there can't be more because it is fully built and there is ample supply - think about, what other short streets have so many condos like Bay? as to running only in downtown core, both Church and Jarvis stops at/a bit north of Bloor too.
5) Two reasons I can think of are
a) it is close to Yonge st, on its west side (many don't like east of Yonge) but not just on Yonge st (also not much supply right on Yonge).
b) it is close to University of Toronto (huge and stable demand for rental).