rbt
Senior Member
If true, that is a huge problem.
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
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If true, that is a huge problem.
Kenny
Active Member
New Globe And Mail article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-august-showing-in-a-decade/article14464065/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...t-august-showing-in-a-decade/article14464065/
interested
Senior Member
^^^
This is not surprising.
We have heard that a number of developers postponed new projects until later on in the year or to 2014 as there were increased numbers of unsold inventory. Since most sales occur at launch or within the first 3 months, this is not surprising. In fact, I would suggest for the long term reduced sales are better to prevent further inflation of an asset bubble and probably adds some stability to the market. If it remains low for a protracted period, that will result in price declines in my view.
This is not surprising.
We have heard that a number of developers postponed new projects until later on in the year or to 2014 as there were increased numbers of unsold inventory. Since most sales occur at launch or within the first 3 months, this is not surprising. In fact, I would suggest for the long term reduced sales are better to prevent further inflation of an asset bubble and probably adds some stability to the market. If it remains low for a protracted period, that will result in price declines in my view.
klb86
Active Member
TORONTO, October 3, 2013 -- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,411 residential sales through the TorontoMLS system in September 2013, representing a 30 per cent increase compared to 5,687 transactions reported in September 2012. Year-to-date, total residential sales reported through TorontoMLS amounted to 68,907 during the first nine months of 2013 – down by one per cent compared to the same period in 2012.
“It’s great news that households have found that the costs of home ownership, including mortgage payments, remain affordable. This is why the third quarter was characterized by renewed growth in home sales in the GTA. We expect to see sales up for the remainder of 2013, as the pent-up demand that resulted from stricter mortgage lending guidelines continues to be satisfied,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.
The average selling price for September transactions was $533,797 – up by 6.5 per cent year-over-year. Through the first three quarters of 2013, the average selling price was $520,118 – up by over four per cent compared to the first nine months of 2012.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark for September was up by four per cent year-over-year. The annual rate of growth for the composite benchmark has been accelerating since the spring of 2013.
“The price growth story in September continued to be about strong demand for low-rise home types, coupled with a short supply of listings. Even with slower price growth and month-to-month volatility in the condo apartment market, overall annual price growth has been well above the rate of inflation this year. This scenario will continue to play out through the remainder of 2013,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Average selling price in the 416: $571,410 up 5% y/y Sales up 27.7% y/y
Average condo prices in the 416 $363,149 down -3.7% y/y Sales up 31.5% y/y
“It’s great news that households have found that the costs of home ownership, including mortgage payments, remain affordable. This is why the third quarter was characterized by renewed growth in home sales in the GTA. We expect to see sales up for the remainder of 2013, as the pent-up demand that resulted from stricter mortgage lending guidelines continues to be satisfied,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.
The average selling price for September transactions was $533,797 – up by 6.5 per cent year-over-year. Through the first three quarters of 2013, the average selling price was $520,118 – up by over four per cent compared to the first nine months of 2012.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark for September was up by four per cent year-over-year. The annual rate of growth for the composite benchmark has been accelerating since the spring of 2013.
“The price growth story in September continued to be about strong demand for low-rise home types, coupled with a short supply of listings. Even with slower price growth and month-to-month volatility in the condo apartment market, overall annual price growth has been well above the rate of inflation this year. This scenario will continue to play out through the remainder of 2013,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Average selling price in the 416: $571,410 up 5% y/y Sales up 27.7% y/y
Average condo prices in the 416 $363,149 down -3.7% y/y Sales up 31.5% y/y
Riverdale Rink Rat
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Interesting anecdotal evidence from Patrick Rocca (a big kahuna in Leaside) about a bifurcated market (fierce bidding wars $450-$600k, maybe up to $800k; very little at the $1.2M level -- dead like dead). Numbers are lower here in East York, but same feel -- smoking hot market for first buyers or condo move-ups, but ZERO on the $900k+ flipper/2nd home front. Three homes within a block of us taken off the market w/o sales, rest have yet to sell.
Has the top set in, or was it just an '89 style overreach on a few properties?
Has the top set in, or was it just an '89 style overreach on a few properties?
recharts
Banned
Here is factual evedences, stats with hard numbers behind them
Months ago when I was saying that the condo market will go down nobody believed
if you remove the $1M houses from the picture you get flat line for SFHs and clearly descending lines for To Condos
The only "good news" are the semis which went up in the core areas of the city.
What you posted above is pure fabrication, the picture below is based on data. MLS data
Edit: since some of you had problems with seeing the graphs here is a little help
Use this link to see the full size of the image
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/2007/kr2j.png
Save the graph on your local drive and use your favorite picture viewer to zoom in
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Riverdale Rink Rat
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Recharts, since I have you blocked, I had forgot how annoying you are. So, you're saying my anecdotal evidence is wrong because it agrees with you? (Since small semis are the low end in both Leaside & East York.) and you insult me for saying that? Good bye.
interested
Senior Member
REcharts: the charts are too small for me to make out.
Can you precis them for me in a bit more detail:
Am I correct in understanding that condos, especially in the C1 to C9 districts are going down.
SFH homes Higher end sales are essentially flat except for a few areas of very expensive homes which are slightly up?
Do not get insulted but I have a question about this data related to condos. We know the average size of condos has been going down over the past few years. As the mix changes year on year of the condo sales, surely there are smaller condos "on average" being sold. My point is say 5 years ago the average condo was 850 sq.ft. and now it is 750 sq.ft. Surely if condos sell on price/sq.ft. basis, just looking at the average is going to over represent the down trend. I also appreciate that newer condos will fetch more/sq.ft. partially offsetting this. I also understand that this year CREA changed its reporting and this is resulting in double and triple counting of listings thereby inflating sales numbers.
I understand prices are dropping but the real question is: Is the price/sq.ft. dropping and are same buildings, same units dropping. My sense is more expensive condos are but the less than $400-500K condos are not. Again, this is not based on numbers but just what seems to be happening. Do you have a way to confirm this....possibly using Teranet numbers though I am not sure if Teranet does condos or only SFH's.
Addendum: I was able to read the enlarged charts...thank you. Can you still respond to my paragraph about price/sq.ft.as the only number I recall seeing was that it was down about $4 based on $400 or about 1%. Down yes but if true, hardly alarming though you may be right that more price adjustments are coming.
Can you precis them for me in a bit more detail:
Am I correct in understanding that condos, especially in the C1 to C9 districts are going down.
SFH homes Higher end sales are essentially flat except for a few areas of very expensive homes which are slightly up?
Do not get insulted but I have a question about this data related to condos. We know the average size of condos has been going down over the past few years. As the mix changes year on year of the condo sales, surely there are smaller condos "on average" being sold. My point is say 5 years ago the average condo was 850 sq.ft. and now it is 750 sq.ft. Surely if condos sell on price/sq.ft. basis, just looking at the average is going to over represent the down trend. I also appreciate that newer condos will fetch more/sq.ft. partially offsetting this. I also understand that this year CREA changed its reporting and this is resulting in double and triple counting of listings thereby inflating sales numbers.
I understand prices are dropping but the real question is: Is the price/sq.ft. dropping and are same buildings, same units dropping. My sense is more expensive condos are but the less than $400-500K condos are not. Again, this is not based on numbers but just what seems to be happening. Do you have a way to confirm this....possibly using Teranet numbers though I am not sure if Teranet does condos or only SFH's.
Addendum: I was able to read the enlarged charts...thank you. Can you still respond to my paragraph about price/sq.ft.as the only number I recall seeing was that it was down about $4 based on $400 or about 1%. Down yes but if true, hardly alarming though you may be right that more price adjustments are coming.
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recharts
Banned
Going that deep with the comparison will get you nowhere because this debate has no end
Price sqft can not be calculated accurately for the simple reason that MLS listings have SQFT ranges not the exact size
Some times the agent mentions the exact number in the listing description
The price per sqft is very local but the decline is general.
On top of that older units are larger but a higher maintenance fee (more sqft and older buildings) so the decline is bigger for these units
They are harder to sell, condo is traditionally a first time buyer's market and they will not go for the high end
Here is a fact: I had a short look at some condos in my area, the idea was to wait there till the SFH market implodes
I wanted to see what I could buy for half of the average price for a SFH. The condos will decline more than SFH but the total amount you lose over the same number of years is smaller ...so that might be a good plan if you have to buy in the next 6 months
Wanting to proceed with the above I looked at the price per SFQT for some units (above 1000sqft) and I actually discovered that the price per sqft was higher for matchboxes than for bigger condos!!
Right now I don;t have the time to do what you suggested above but I will have a look when and if I decide to put in practice the above described plan.
RE SFH higher end - homes above 2mil are now moving after sitting on the market a long time (6 months) This is skewing the stats and it is driving the AVF price up
SFH under 1mil have been FLAT for the last 6 months!
For now I will just wait to see where the market is going.
My guess is that we are going to see a depreciation in all categories in a short time (next two months), I guess this will be mainly due to interest rates.
The new homes market will be dead unless they drop the price dramatically ...the investment in RE will be reduced and we are going to see traffic only due to genuine buyers and only from those forced to buy.
Considering the situation any sane individual will postpone buying till they see where this is going. This is just the first month with the higher rates.
The situation is not clear in US and that will play a role in all this mess
Here is the graph for condos in downtown in particular for condos <$1M
Prices are going higher but the sales are going down (practically that is a sign of a tanking market)
these are running averages are calculated based on the 30 days
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interested
Senior Member
This was always the case. It is similar with new condos as well. The explanation was always that the kitchen and bathrooms are more expensive to build than bedrooms/living areas. A small 1 bedroom needs a kitchen and a bathroom. Building a larger unit (2 or 3 bedroom with more living space) is cheaper than equipping a kitchen, getting plumbing done, etc.
Memph
Active Member
A couple multi million dollar homes in my parents Oakville neighbourhood have been rented out due to not being able to sell. Inventory has gone up slowly in the last month.
daveto
Active Member
Graphs showing sales decreasing May to Sept are to be expected. It is a normal season variance.
As a bear, I'll admit I'm surprised by the sales and price figures for August/September.
No change in my expectations, but I am increasingly curious about who are these people who are buying at these in this market.
Most of the anecdotal evidence I hear is people removing their property from listing because they can't get any interest at "the price they need to sell at". But maybe I just don't travel in the right circles?
As a bear, I'll admit I'm surprised by the sales and price figures for August/September.
No change in my expectations, but I am increasingly curious about who are these people who are buying at these in this market.
Most of the anecdotal evidence I hear is people removing their property from listing because they can't get any interest at "the price they need to sell at". But maybe I just don't travel in the right circles?
recharts
Banned
How about these properties ? These are fresh, sold over the weekend, I did not bother to go back
I wonder what has got into these owners. Must be the mad cow disease
http://www.dinkypage.com/243366
Of course these are "anecdotal"
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interested
Senior Member
I am familiar with Oakville (though not so much the million dollar neighbourhood which is mainly East and Central/Old Oakville and also some of West Oakville.) I know a few realtors and already last year there was over 2 years of inventory of homes over the approximate $1.2 million(with much product in and around $2 million. I believe there was a slight pick up in the spring but simply too much product and not much buyers...comparable to what Mr. Rocca quoted.
On the other hand, in North Oakville (North of the QEW) most product continues to move usually at 96-98% of list (though not sure if there have been price decreases). Cursory glance suggests 50% of inventory sells within a month...in other words quite quickly but this is the under $800K-$1million market... again much like in Leaside.
recharts
Banned
Oakville stats as of October 7, 2013
I am curious if these confirm Interested's view from the ground
Again, use the link below to save the file locally and use your favorite image viewer to zoom in if you need to
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/1650/66wv.png
Some graphs are really useless ,around 14 points per data point-that means the running average represented in the picture had no more than 14 sales for the previous 30 days for calculating the value of a point on the picture.
That is the case for condos for instance
In the case of houses over $1M that shows that the moving inventory is very low.
Basically the charts for Semis and Condos are useless, just pay attention to Detached
I am curious if these confirm Interested's view from the ground
Again, use the link below to save the file locally and use your favorite image viewer to zoom in if you need to
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/1650/66wv.png
Some graphs are really useless ,around 14 points per data point-that means the running average represented in the picture had no more than 14 sales for the previous 30 days for calculating the value of a point on the picture.
That is the case for condos for instance
In the case of houses over $1M that shows that the moving inventory is very low.
Basically the charts for Semis and Condos are useless, just pay attention to Detached
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