OK KA1
I may have it wrong.
I hope so but I don't think so. Bubbles are very difficult to predict. It is usually when the last "fool in" with no one to replace him as in Ponzi scheme that the situation unravels.
Do I believe that fundamentals to real estate are no longer relevant? No in simple terms.
Maybe everyone will be laughing at us chickens.
However, if you believe what you just posted, should you not be going out and levering yourself for as much real estate as you can? Perhaps Chinese investors are buying with full payment. However, if they have to repatriate money for whatever reason as will now occur in Japan (at least that is what is expected), where do you thing this money is going to come from? Selling their assets that they use or these off shore investments and 2nd homes?
I don't know and am fully above board when I tell you I am not smart enough to know what will happen for sure or when.
I just remember that in Florida every year I went down all I heard was "new norm", real estate can only go up, boomers will all retire to Florida, they are not making any more ocean front....
That was until 2007. Then everyone was in denial as the market dropped up to 60% in some markets.
Money from China deposited in Toronto or Vancouver or elsewhere will go where the stability and return can be made.
In the article you posted from the Globe and Mail there was an interesting comment from someone who was Chinese who stated that Chinese are huge gamblers. Also there is a heard mentality at present. Do you not at least consider KA1 that perhaps heard mentality can change and then ask yourself, when people want out, if it is in fact this foreign investment from outside Canada and from China in particular who will step in to support the prices? Not the locals, they are being priced out of these markets.
Anyhow, eventually I will be right. It may take 30 years but at one point prices will adjust. You got a small wiff of it in 2008-2009. Massive stimulus helped. That too was to last a short time. Then it stretched to QE2, then ?perhaps QE3 though I don't think that will happen.
There is so much external manipulation going on with massive amounts of liquidity which at some point will have to be removed and then suddenly maybe things will start to come back to Earth.
Finally, you and I will both be smiling, because if Cinema Towers will fetch $800+ and go up, then your Aura and my SL will surely at least maintain if not become even more valuable. I am not greedy KA!.
I recall a wonderful expression my father had: I can only eat 1 steak.
The above said, then I guess we were both brilliant or read lucky that we bought when we did in 2001, 2007 and 2008 because at least what we have should maintain its present values with your belief if this is how the universe unfolds.
And yes , my prediction does get pushed out further in the future. I just point out that Florida is back at 2002 levels in 2011. I sold there in 2003 a property I had because it made no sense when it had doubled and I was not happy as it merrily increased in value to 2006-2007. Now the property I sold is worth less than I sold it for. I was wrong in 2003 missing the mark by 3 years there. I learned a long time ago... you can't pick the bottom nor the top unless very lucky. All you can do is ask oneself is there a rationale reason for accepting the prices as they are?
Finally, I personally would rather talk about what I did not make rather that what I actually lost. Which is why I will never be rich. But I sleep at night. LOL
Interested, if you pomise to not to get upset or loose your temper, then, I would like to repeat what I have said in an earlier post, "you are once again wrong, Interested".
Comparing real estate in downtown Toronto, and that too in core downtown, to Florida is akin to comparing a banana with an apple -- a rotton apple too.
When you talk about having made money in Florida real estate, it reminds me of a story. During a hunting trip, an individual handed over gun to his blind friend while he went for a leak. During the absence, gun, accidently, went off and hit a duck. After that, this blind man started describing himself as a 'sharp shooter'.
If you had consulted someone like Redfirm or myself, we would have advised you to not to invest in Florida real estate -- very high local property taxes, regulatory compliance requirements of IRS and other headaches. It is better to rent a property in Florida or any other 'sun' cities rather than buy. You are lucky that you made money in this transaction.
I bought a unit in AURA at $ 700.00 sq ft, on 'Executive' floors while the units on the 'peasant' floors below were going for $ 550.00 sq ft. Once again, I will be paying the price of unit at $ 800,000 in full. Price going up or down will not bother me. During the last few years of my life, I will have the satisfaction of looking down upon others from my unit way above in the sky. And if I was to have money to pay for a unit in full, even at $ 800.00 sq. ft, I will buy a unit. Just as your father said "1 stake at one time", 1 fully paid unit at one time.
Economy, and r/e prices, are not going down as it is being predicted by others. This is Canada and not USA.
