Baby, we got a bubble!?

[evandyk]

Oh, I'm aware of the problems, but those units are still being rented out, the landlords are just grumpy that the rents aren't paying both their equity and interest payments on their mortgage at current interest rates. Prices will correct. Sadly, it will cause a bunch of pain in the number of new units coming in the next few years.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Oh, I'm aware of the problems, but those units are still being rented out, the landlords are just grumpy that the rents aren't paying both their equity and interest payments on their mortgage at current interest rates. Prices will correct. Sadly, it will cause a bunch of pain in the number of new units coming in the next few years.

I would not be surprised if in the next two decades we increasingly see retrofits of these investor-focused buildings where several shoebox units are combined into two or three bedroom units that are more suitable for owner occupancy, especially families.

http://www.twindo.ca/uploads/7/4/8/0/7480311/3200675_orig.jpg

This fellow from ten years ago, see below is trying to talk people out of the idea.

Combining Multiple Condo Units | Toronto Realty Blog

I’ve seen this done countless times, but I have never seen it done effectively. I’m sure there’s an old adage, or a saying, that explains something to the effect of, “It’s best use is for that which it was intended.”...

torontorealtyblog.com

 

[Bloor West Villager]

I would not be surprised if in the next two decades we increasingly see retrofits of these investor-focused buildings where several shoebox units are combined into two or three bedroom units that are more suitable for owner occupancy, especially families.

While I would love to see this happen so families have better urban housing options, I just can't see a market where this is viable, unless there's a severe downturn. The terrible investor units of today are just priced too high to add construction costs on top.

The other issue is that it's not just the unit layouts that aren't conducive for family living, but many buildings don't have amenities for families or poor elevators ratios, etc. So combining smaller units only solves part of the problem.

 

[lead82]

It’s mostly just not feasible. A lot of these buildings will fall to demolition sooner than later or convert to hotels.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It’s mostly just not feasible. A lot of these buildings will fall to demolition sooner than later or convert to hotels.

I don’t think any high rise condo tower has ever been demolished in Toronto. I expect the current inventory will be here for 100 years.

 

[toaster29]

What do they become? The current old buildings at least have architectural charm, and are quite large. In 50, or even 20 years from now, a lot of these buildings will become "slums".. some would say places like ICE condos are already there.

 

[Admiral Beez]

What do they become? The current old buildings at least have architectural charm, and are quite large. In 50, or even 20 years from now, a lot of these buildings will become "slums".. some would say places like ICE condos are already there.

The big issue will be with the floor to ceiling window condos. The half life of the argon filled seals is only about 15 years, after that the seals fail, the insulation values plummet and then every unit owner is hit with a special assessment to replace all the windows, which can cost millions $ per building. This was a known problem over a decade ago, but we kept building them.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/throw-away-buildings-toronto-s-glass-condos-1.1073319

 

[lead82]

I don’t think any high rise condo tower has ever been demolished in Toronto. I expect the current inventory will be here for 100 years.

Not yet but we may see poorly built condos fail and of the owners can’t pay the special assessments they will sell and the building may fall into disrepair. The older buildings built ~ pre-2010 are much better quality.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not yet but we may see poorly built condos fail and of the owners can’t pay the special assessments they will sell and the building may fall into disrepair. The older buildings built ~ pre-2010 are much better quality.

I don't think I've ever seen footage of a glass clad condo being demolished. I would assume all the exterior of the condo would need to be stripped.

 

[lead82]

It’s too early. We may see mass glass facade replacements or other major exterior repairs. Demolition will be a last resort if the owners can’t cough up the funds to repair.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It’s too early. We may see mass glass facade replacements or other major exterior repairs.

I wonder if we’ll see facade conversions on 25 year condos from curtain/window walls to punched windows.