News   Feb 27, 2024
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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Just saw on BlogTO that about 17,000 condo units were sold in GTA last year. Curious as to how this stacks up with other fast growing jurisdictions I found out that there were 18,000 condos sold in all of Texas over the same period. Just the difference in our markets and market share of multi-unit versus sfh is striking!
 
Just saw on BlogTO that about 17,000 condo units were sold in GTA last year. Curious as to how this stacks up with other fast growing jurisdictions I found out that there were 18,000 condos sold in all of Texas over the same period. Just the difference in our markets and market share of multi-unit versus sfh is striking!
It’s our own little Evergrande in the making.
 
I bought my first house in 1980 and was thrilled to get a 5-year mortgage at 10%.
The difference is the purchase price was probably about four to six times your annual salary. That was me in 1998, when aged 27 and 26 we bought our first house at $298, equal to 4.5x our pretax salaries. I believe mortgages then were about 8%. Nowadays, a SFH purchase is equal to a dozen or more years of income.

That‘s why if I was a young person I’d leave the Golden Horseshoe entirely. There are lots of places in Canada where housing is affordable and good paying jobs can be found. For example, here’s seventy plus single family homes in Saskatoon, SK, under $350k with 3+ bedrooms and 2+ baths and here’s over seven hundred job openings paying more than $70k. It‘s a big country, with excitement and opportunities across the land. In 2004 I moved to Fredericton, NB to see what life was about out east. Get out of southern Ontario, Ottawa and southern BC and young adults can still find the Canadian dream of affordable housing and good jobs.
 
Let me tell you, millennials are so tired of hearing boomers reminisce about paying 15% mortgage rates briefly in the 1980s when they were able to buy a home for 3x the income a high school graduate could earn and saw large annual wage increases.
 
The difference is the purchase price was probably about four to six times your annual salary. That was me in 1998, when aged 27 and 26 we bought our first house at $298, equal to 4.5x our pretax salaries. I believe mortgages then were about 8%. Nowadays, a SFH purchase is equal to a dozen or more years of income.

That‘s why if I was a young person I’d leave the Golden Horseshoe entirely. There are lots of places in Canada where housing is affordable and good paying jobs can be found. For example, here’s seventy plus single family homes in Saskatoon, SK, under $350k with 3+ bedrooms and 2+ baths and here’s over seven hundred job openings paying more than $70k. It‘s a big country, with excitement and opportunities across the land. In 2004 I moved to Fredericton, NB to see what life was about out east. Get out of southern Ontario, Ottawa and southern BC and young adults can still find the Canadian dream of affordable housing and good jobs.
Absolutely. I wasn't making a comparison - just a comment.

Let me tell you, millennials are so tired of hearing boomers reminisce about paying 15% mortgage rates briefly in the 1980s when they were able to buy a home for 3x the income a high school graduate could earn and saw large annual wage increases.
And I got tired of my dad saying haircuts used to be nickle. What's you point - it's a open forum. As I mentioned, it was a comment, not a comparison.
 
Let me tell you, millennials are so tired of hearing boomers reminisce about….
Fondly recalling the past is the very definition of reminiscing. Assuming you‘re of the millennials you speak of, you’ll have plenty of reminisce about that will annoy whatever two or three generations follow you.
 
Fondly recalling the past is the very definition of reminiscing. Assuming you‘re of the millennials you speak of, you’ll have plenty of reminisce about that will annoy whatever two or three generations follow you.
There's usually a subtext of "we had it bad too, don't complain". I'd gladly take 15% interest with 10% inflation/wage increases if it meant I could buy a house for 3x median income.
 
if it meant I could buy a house for 3x median income.
Who wouldn’t? And you still can, just not in southern Ontario or southern BC. There are tons of towns and smaller cities in this country where SFHs can be had for under $400k where jobs paying $70-90k are plentiful. Our ancestors came to Canada from elsewhere, breaking ties with their parents, friends and careers to make a fresh start. But somehow we’re all blind to the very same opportunity that Canada outside of southern Ontario and southern BC presents, and prefer to stick it out in the GTA and complain about how unaffordable it is.
 
So, is the appropriate response when a boomer complains about 15% mortgage interest in the 80's is to tell them they should have rented instead?
 
So, is the appropriate response when a boomer complains about 15% mortgage interest in the 80's is to tell them they should have rented instead?
Again with the 'complaint' angle. Maybe it is said as a brag, or a 'suck it up you babies' statement, or just a comment. Everything needs context.

It is sometimes curious how boomers get taken to task for attitudes and statements but people born before 1946 not so much.
 
It’s easy to say just go somewhere else where housing is cheaper, but there are a lot of considerations. I lived somewhere else for 30 years and am so happy to be back in the Golden Horseshoe. Life in a small(er) town isn’t for everyone. And it isn’t just about housing … food prices, gas prices, etc can often be higher. Not all careers (vs jobs) are available everywhere. My kids always say the kids they grew up with who stayed small town have jobs, but those who left have careers. There are multiple considerations when choosing where to live.
 
Who wouldn’t? And you still can, just not in southern Ontario or southern BC. There are tons of towns and smaller cities in this country where SFHs can be had for under $400k where jobs paying $70-90k are plentiful. Our ancestors came to Canada from elsewhere, breaking ties with their parents, friends and careers to make a fresh start. But somehow we’re all blind to the very same opportunity that Canada outside of southern Ontario and southern BC presents, and prefer to stick it out in the GTA and complain about how unaffordable it is.
... and Southern Ontario + Lower Mainland migrants are driving housing prices up everywhere else in the country. Calgary is seeing 15%+ YOY rent increases; Halifax is increasing 10%; Montreal looks like the GTA in 2015; basically no part of Southern Ontario is affordable anymore.

Telling people to move 1000s of kilometres might work for some individuals. It's not a systematic solution, especially when they start bringing a housing crisis with them.
 

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