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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Memph

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People still want to raise their families in communities with 2-car garage/4-bedroom homes.

I realize its anecdotal, but I have a friend that works near Pearson, his wife works in Vaughan, and they just purchased a home in Tottenham. They have a 1-year old kid as well.

The push for living downtown is mostly by singles or married couples without children.
Has your friend ever lived downtown? To be fair though, there's not much of a point living downtown if you work at Pearson/Vaughan.
 

narduch

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Has your friend ever lived downtown? To be fair though, there's not much of a point living downtown if you work at Pearson/Vaughan.
No, he never did.

The point is that living downtown will not always make sense for everybody unless you are planning to move ALL the jobs there, which will never happen.
 

nrb

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While I am loathe to use the term "millienials" there is ample evidence that young people are leaving the city in droves once they decide to have kids. The idea that people want to stick around and raise their kids in a two bedroom closet is wishful thinking.
 

TheKingEast

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While I am loathe to use the term "millienials" there is ample evidence that young people are leaving the city in droves once they decide to have kids. The idea that people want to stick around and raise their kids in a two bedroom closet is wishful thinking.
I see many young couples raising kids downtown.
 

narduch

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I see many young couples raising kids downtown.
That's the exception to the norm though.

Families aren't flooding to the downtown core. Its more like some parents are finding ways to make it work.

I agree with nrb, for the most part, once couples start having children they don't want to be in a condo anymore. Maybe if affordable 2.5 bedroom condos existed in the core it would be different.
 

Migos

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Housing and speculators
Policy makers should move quickly and aggressively on fears of speculation in Canada’s housing market, observers warn.

“The sooner that governments can provide a clearer picture of how much speculative investment is driving these price moves and take meaningful action to curb the excesses, the better the chance of avoiding a messy outcome,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Sal Guatieri.

His comments followed those of Bank of Canada deputy governor Lawrence Schembri, who said last week that he and his colleagues are concerned that speculators are helping to fuel the rapid rise in prices in the country’s hot markets.

The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets are roaring ahead, with huge price gains reported month after month.

Those increases can be attributed to lower interest rates and strong labour markets, but there has to be more behind it, Mr. Guatieri said.

Incomes aren’t rising fast enough to account for the price surge, the BMO economist said. Nor can you tie it all to the “diminishing supply of available land” or an influx of job-seeking millennials.

“That leaves two other drivers – foreign wealth and speculation,” Mr. Guatieri said in a recent research note.

“Growing evidence suggests the former is a key factor, which offers hope that both markets will be spared a severe correction if the inflow of wealth continues,” he added.

“If speculation is also at play – and the number of homes bought and sold within a year in Vancouver has indeed turned higher – then both regions could face a downturn.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/why-the-bank-of-canada-is-fretting-about-housing-speculators/article30292122/
 

rbt

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People still want to raise their families in communities with 2-car garage/4-bedroom homes.

I realize its anecdotal, but I have a friend that works near Pearson, his wife works in Vaughan, and they just purchased a home in Tottenham. They have a 1-year old kid as well.

The push for living downtown is mostly by singles or married couples without children.
That was true. About 6 or 7 years ago those first round of single condo dwellers in those tiny downtown bachelor/1 bedroom units started upgrading to 2 bedroom units instead of a house. Not everyone, but enough that "upgrade in your current neighbourhood" is a large chunk of some agents income/commission stream.

Families aren't flooding to the downtown core. Its more like some parents are finding ways to make it work.
Obviously. Very few in Europe want a family of 4 in a 2 bedroom flat either; yet there are tens of millions of families doing exactly that. Parks, for teens, are where you go for privacy.

In 15 to 20 years I think downtown Toronto elementary school construction will be non-stop (every couple of years a new school will be added or enlarged). The only thing that'll stop it is massive layoffs by the big 5 banks.
 
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Migos

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I don't think the data supports the idea that more families are living downtown. Sorry for the formatting below. I suggest checking out the source document: http://www1.toronto.ca/City Of Toronto/City Planning/Wards/Files/pdf/W/Ward 28 Profile 2011.pdf

Children decreased from 2006 to 2011. 20-somethings and retirement-age folks increased.

Population by Age Group


Ward 28

2006 2011 06-11

Age Group No. % No. % % Chg

Less than 5 3,095 5.1 3,030 4.6 -2.1

5-9 2,890 4.8 2,295 3.4 -20.6

10-14 2,615 4.3 2,290 3.4 -12.4

15-19 2,645 4.4 2,565 3.9 -3.0

20-24 4,195 7.0 5,065 7.6 20.7

25-29 5,745 9.5 8,095 12.2 40.9

30-34 6,170 10.2 7,475 11.2 21.2

35-39 6,115 10.1 5,945 8.9 -2.8

40-44 5,870 9.7 5,480 8.2 -6.6

45-49 4,850 8.0 5,400 8.1 11.3

50-54 4,090 6.8 4,775 7.2 16.7

55-59 3,685 6.1 3,945 5.9 7.1

60-64 2,700 4.5 3,450 5.2 27.8

65-69 1,890 3.1 2,440 3.7 29.1

70-74 1,350 2.2 1,620 2.4 20.0

75-79 1,135 1.9 1,220 1.8 7.5

80-84 760 1.3 840 1.3 10.5

85+ 530 0.9 655 1.0 23.6

Total 60,330 100.0 66,585 100.0 10.4
 

PinkLucy

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2011 was 5 years ago; we need the new data (which always takes a while to catch up). I've seen a shift in those five years from young families in our building leaving when the child was still an infant to now staying put, lobbying for better playground facilities in local parks, and trying to decide which school is the one they want for their kids.
 

Migos

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2011 was 5 years ago; we need the new data (which always takes a while to catch up). I've seen a shift in those five years from young families in our building leaving when the child was still an infant to now staying put, lobbying for better playground facilities in local parks, and trying to decide which school is the one they want for their kids.
Yup, it's the most recent data available. Hearing your personal anecdotes is fine, but I don't think it discredits real data, even if it is 5 years old.
 

PinkLucy

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I'm not discrediting the data as it reflects the situation 5 years ago. There has been a lot of change in downtown in the past 5 years, so I suspect that we're going to see a very different picture in the 2016 census. And while my personal anecdotes are indeed anecdotal, there is also the fact that new schools are being planned and children's activities are being incorporated in urban planning such as the Under Gardiner project. I don't think that the people planning those things are doing it on a whim.
 

Migos

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I'm not discrediting the data as it reflects the situation 5 years ago. There has been a lot of change in downtown in the past 5 years, so I suspect that we're going to see a very different picture in the 2016 census. And while my personal anecdotes are indeed anecdotal, there is also the fact that new schools are being planned and children's activities are being incorporated in urban planning such as the Under Gardiner project. I don't think that the people planning those things are doing it on a whim.
How many new schools have been built downtown in the past 5 years? How many new spaces for kids are there? Enrollment at TDSB has been dropping for years.

The public sector does tons of things on a whim. Look at the UP Express as one example. Scarborough subway. Sheppard subway. Planners pick where and when to build schools based partly on Census data. It's not like planners are walking around neighbourhoods and saying "hey, look there's a lot of kids around here now, let's build a school!".
 

PinkLucy

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I didn't say schools were built, I said they are planned, such as the schools in City Place.
 

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