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Baby, we got a bubble!?

To each his own, but I would be literally sick to my stomach if I had spent that much money on such undesirable properties in such undesirable neighbourhoods.
That's exactly what my suburban friends told me when my wife and I bought in east downtown in the 1990s. They'd run from their cars to my front porch like they'd be shot or robbed if exposed. Now my neighbourhood is one of the most sought after.

If enough of these sorts of people (middle class professional) move into any area they will quickly displace the undesirable elements of the neighbourhood. That's why in East Hastings in Vancouver the locals are so strongly fighting the beginnings of gentrification, as they know once it gets a foothold it's only a matter of time before the original inhabitants are pushed out.

In ten years the gentrification process will be nearly complete and these folks will likely have bought low in a high value market.
 
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That's exactly what my suburban friends told me when my wife and I bought in east downtown in the 1990s.

There are no guarantees that any of these areas will see a resurgence or successful gentrification. It's a hope, maybe even a likely possibility, but not written in stone. Many people have gotten lucky, and many have made incredible gains and enjoyed significant reward from buying housing. But it has also caused a lot of heartache, and can easily go the other way.

When you bought, was it a teardown dump (I'm just using that in a general sense) and was it your only option? And were dozens of other buyers eager to outbid you for it? Did it take very cent you had (and then some) just to get in the door? My guess is you bought what you could afford, as close as you could get to the location you desired, and that the property was reasonably priced based on demand. The surge in market values and desirability were hoped for and anticipated, but probably not viewed as a sure-thing. You are probably just as surprised as everyone else to see where things have gone.

I would also think that living right in the city was still viewed more unfavourably (especially by suburbanites) in the 90's, i.e. less desirable and safe. That's a general view that has softened in recent years as shows like "Seinfeld", "Friends", and "Sex in the City" have helped make urban living look more appealing and exciting.

Again, my concern is that this one type of asset has fostered such desperation that people are willing to spend everything they have to get it, even if it's not what they want or where they want. It's a much different landscape than when you bought, or even when I did. My feeling is it's a wealth swindle, and people are playing right into it. Everyone else can see it happening except for those viewing it from the inside. We are frogs in a pot of water that is being slowly heated. By the time we realize it's time to jump, it's already too late.
 
There are no guarantees that any of these areas will see a resurgence or successful gentrification. It's a hope, maybe even a likely possibility, but not written in stone. Many people have gotten lucky, and many have made incredible gains and enjoyed significant reward from buying housing. But it has also caused a lot of heartache, and can easily go the other way.

When you bought, was it a teardown dump (I'm just using that in a general sense) and was it your only option? And were dozens of other buyers eager to outbid you for it? Did it take very cent you had (and then some) just to get in the door? My guess is you bought what you could afford, as close as you could get to the location you desired, and that the property was reasonably priced based on demand. The surge in market values and desirability were hoped for and anticipated, but probably not viewed as a sure-thing. You are probably just as surprised as everyone else to see where things have gone.

I would also think that living right in the city was still viewed more unfavourably (especially by suburbanites) in the 90's, i.e. less desirable and safe. That's a general view that has softened in recent years as shows like "Seinfeld", "Friends", and "Sex in the City" have helped make urban living look more appealing and exciting.

Again, my concern is that this one type of asset has fostered such desperation that people are willing to spend everything they have to get it, even if it's not what they want or where they want. It's a much different landscape than when you bought, or even when I did. My feeling is it's a wealth swindle, and people are playing right into it. Everyone else can see it happening except for those viewing it from the inside. We are frogs in a pot of water that is being slowly heated. By the time we realize it's time to jump, it's already too late.

The very fact you have people making arguments about your post tells me there's a bubble. It's no longer about the fundamentals. It's not longer about making a buy/rent decision based on different financial and lifestyle scenarios. It's not longer about buying a house you want in an area you can afford. It's about BUYING NOW becasue if you don't buy now, you'll never be able to buy. You're THROWING AWAY your rent money and leaving all these gains on appreciating real estate to others. And you MUST BUY. It's the only option.

I posted earlier about how a huge segment of buyers have a negative savings rate. That is unsustainable, especially when you consider that interest rates have only one way to go. However, people will keep posting irrelevant justifications like "well Toronto's a world-class city" and "these neighbourhoods are gentrifying!".

None of that matters. What matters is that people can't afford to buy these homes no matter how much they want to live in them. At some point, the "greater fool" won't be able to bid houses up that extra dollar, and at that point the whole illusion will come crashing down. Just like it did in the U.S. in 2008 and we've already forgotten and said "it can't happen here because THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!".
 
The very fact you have people making arguments about your post tells me there's a bubble. It's no longer about the fundamentals. It's not longer about making a buy/rent decision based on different financial and lifestyle scenarios. It's not longer about buying a house you want in an area you can afford. It's about BUYING NOW becasue if you don't buy now, you'll never be able to buy. You're THROWING AWAY your rent money and leaving all these gains on appreciating real estate to others. And you MUST BUY. It's the only option.

I posted earlier about how a huge segment of buyers have a negative savings rate. That is unsustainable, especially when you consider that interest rates have only one way to go. However, people will keep posting irrelevant justifications like "well Toronto's a world-class city" and "these neighbourhoods are gentrifying!".

None of that matters. What matters is that people can't afford to buy these homes no matter how much they want to live in them. At some point, the "greater fool" won't be able to bid houses up that extra dollar, and at that point the whole illusion will come crashing down. Just like it did in the U.S. in 2008 and we've already forgotten and said "it can't happen here because THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!".


You bring up the US as if the situations are the same. They are not.

You also neglect the amount of people who are renting and still not saving. The amount of people who are buying and still saving. The great thing about this "bubble" is people on either side pick and choose which data they want to use to form their argument.

Read the first few posts of this thread...
 
There are no guarantees that any of these areas will see a resurgence or successful gentrification. It's a hope, maybe even a likely possibility, but not written in stone. Many people have gotten lucky, and many have made incredible gains and enjoyed significant reward from buying housing. But it has also caused a lot of heartache, and can easily go the other way.

When you bought, was it a teardown dump (I'm just using that in a general sense) and was it your only option? And were dozens of other buyers eager to outbid you for it? Did it take very cent you had (and then some) just to get in the door? My guess is you bought what you could afford, as close as you could get to the location you desired, and that the property was reasonably priced based on demand. The surge in market values and desirability were hoped for and anticipated, but probably not viewed as a sure-thing. You are probably just as surprised as everyone else to see where things have gone.

I would also think that living right in the city was still viewed more unfavourably (especially by suburbanites) in the 90's, i.e. less desirable and safe. That's a general view that has softened in recent years as shows like "Seinfeld", "Friends", and "Sex in the City" have helped make urban living look more appealing and exciting.

Again, my concern is that this one type of asset has fostered such desperation that people are willing to spend everything they have to get it, even if it's not what they want or where they want. It's a much different landscape than when you bought, or even when I did. My feeling is it's a wealth swindle, and people are playing right into it. Everyone else can see it happening except for those viewing it from the inside. We are frogs in a pot of water that is being slowly heated. By the time we realize it's time to jump, it's already too late.

I agree with a lot of this post.
One further point....sometimes one does not wish to spend 10 years on the hope that an area will "gentrify".
To accept the argument that you bought in the 1990's and it gentrified presumes that after a further 15 years of almost straight appreciation that it will continue indefinitely.
Now, the City truly may continue to have a problem of lack of housing and continue to increase indefinitely upward in price, but to do so will have to rely on those with money either from abroad or investors continuing to buy into the theory they want to be in Toronto, or wages will have to increase to the point to sustain the prices. Perhaps more locals will have the money to buy and perhaps the suburbanites will also continue to want to be in the City.....or maybe...just maybe...people will decide the City is just too busy and want to move out.

I don't know how or when it will play out....I just think to apply this to the 1990's when real estate had just been through a devasting adjustment (from 1989 to 1992) and then hovered along the bottom and then to say that today the same reasoning holds is much more risky than it was after a significant downward revision.

And yes, unless one can truly say they bought in the 1990's expecting gentrification and explosive growth, one has to attribute what has happened to declining bond rates and hence mortgages and more favourable economics than exist today should interest rates ever start climbing.

In the meantime, almost every asset class is being buoyed just as most asset class will tumble should interest rates rise to any degree. Once the QE around the world starts to be withdrawn, money dries up and watch for asset classes to fall.

I think most of us who were fortunate enough to buy in the early 80's or early 90's were just lucky to get brought up by a tide that raised all our asset values.
 
You want people to lose their jobs and/or lose their purchasing power because you want to invest? Why not make it easier and wish cancer on everyone? Then you can have all the houses and all the condos! :rolleyes:

lol the economy crashes and he loses his own job, but at least he can afford a 1+D with parking at yonge & bloor which in turn cannot be maintained because nobody has the money to maintain it.

The best outcome from a purchasing perspective is to have an oversupply of stock in a thriving economy so that the price reduces but doesn't affect your purchasing power
 
“It’s not an insignificant element in the mosaic we call the housing market, that’s what I’m saying, especially in the rental market,” said Tal, in an interview. “You can assume many of these people rent and [that affects] investors and the condo market.”

He wrote in his report that non-permanent residents now number almost 770,000, which is a record high. Almost 50 per cent of that figure is made up of workers, with about 38 per cent students. The rest of the group is made up of humanitarian workers.

“The pace at which this category is growing is also unprecedented,” Tal wrote, adding that, over the last 10 years, 450,000 non-permanent residents have been added to the country.

http://business.financialpost.com/p...-secret-ingredient-in-canadian-housing-market

Foreign money fueling the market...
 
60%? LMAO.

They should start doing this for other things like cars, phones, clothing, etc.

Milk: 18% overvalued
PS4: 9% overvalued
iphone: 283% overvalued
 
60%? LMAO.

They should start doing this for other things like cars, phones, clothing, etc.

Milk: 18% overvalued
PS4: 9% overvalued
iphone: 283% overvalued

But no matter how much those items are overvalued, nobody is lining up to borrow money they don't have to buy sour milk, a busted PS4, or a broken-down, barely-working iPhone. Even for bragging rights that they "bought it in Toronto".
 

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