interested
Senior Member
^^^
ISYM
I believe the 50% figure was not meant to be an actual decline but simply a point by Ka1 that he was in a position to ride out the
decline even if it was of that magnitude.
I am having a bit of difficulty following your post and if I am misreading it, please accept my apology. It appears the paragraph referring to Pink Lucy's experience would be to support the argument that people are/will continue to move into the City. I am not sure if you meant to say "Of my typical Toronto clients the few who look to move out of TO for affordability no longer consider this a worthwhile option." Assuming you did, then it suggests that you accept the hypothesis that communte times and costs mean that people will no longer move to the burbs. Did you perhaps mean move out of York Region to Toronto no longer consider this an option.
I ask this as the rest of your points in the following paragraphs appear to represent reasons for the end of the TO market.
I note C1 seems to be suffering a severe drought in sales. This is the most interesting to a lot of us because this is the main area that most on this forum seem to be talking about. That said, I am fascinated because in the building that I have the condo in for rental there were 5 up for sale in the past month and they all are gone.
As relates to YR; I notice anecdotally that there are 5 houses for sale around me whereas previously there had been maybe 1 every 6 months or 2 tops. 2 have sold but the other 3 have been up now at least 1 month and 2 for many months. People have been pushing the price envelope and buyers at least here in Oakville are not biting. That said, the market from $500-$800K is very hot according to realtors I have spoken to. The problem is beyond that and very marked at the $1.5 to 2 Mill and up where things are absolutely languishing.
I agree 100% with you that if more listings are coming on and more terminated/expired listings are increasing in numbers, this is a forward predictor. It does confuse me a bit though because on the guava site the suggestion for the GTA as a whole is that there is 2.4 months of inventory....a low figure historically: sales are low historically but so is inventory which may explain the slow sales; days on market is 32 which is low....I appreciate this figure is "massaged" as what does not show up is properties removed and relisted and showing as much less time on the market but I would have to believe this type of error has been present before this year; and median price/average price for this particular month is relatively high compared to other years though it remains to be seen if we will have the usual spring price increases as the market may or may not heat up.
Finally your last comment underlined: "when in a sellers market sellers don’t list it is because they don’t intend nor need to" I am not sure what you mean. Are you suggesting that the Realtors/Sellers are being less than forthright about the real reason for not listing... that they can't sell as they can't get the price they want? And therefore buyers who buy "arriving late" means they are overpaying if they buy now?
I can tell you that we really should distinguish end users from investors. I can't speak for all investors but as I have posted before and as Pink Lucy and Ka1 eluded to, we don't worry much about the actual value of our home as we live in it and there are intangibles at work here that mean we do not look at our investment as pure investment. I suspect we all are somewhat more objective about investment property.
Finally, to cdr's and Redfirms comment about Ka1. I just assumed and I am sure Ka1 as a "beancounter" has figured out to transfer the equity from RoCP to Aura if he moves into it as a principal residence. It is clear despite his attempts to stimulate discussion that he is savvy and fully understands what he should do if he moves to Aura. I believe his 50% comment refers to the fact that as relates to his home to live, the paper value is actually quite irrelevant (other than for the financing of it) since he would have no intention of selling whether up 20% or down 50%. Clearly for the "rental property" and for the long term future, it will be a relevant issue.
ISYM
I believe the 50% figure was not meant to be an actual decline but simply a point by Ka1 that he was in a position to ride out the
decline even if it was of that magnitude.
I am having a bit of difficulty following your post and if I am misreading it, please accept my apology. It appears the paragraph referring to Pink Lucy's experience would be to support the argument that people are/will continue to move into the City. I am not sure if you meant to say "Of my typical Toronto clients the few who look to move out of TO for affordability no longer consider this a worthwhile option." Assuming you did, then it suggests that you accept the hypothesis that communte times and costs mean that people will no longer move to the burbs. Did you perhaps mean move out of York Region to Toronto no longer consider this an option.
I ask this as the rest of your points in the following paragraphs appear to represent reasons for the end of the TO market.
I note C1 seems to be suffering a severe drought in sales. This is the most interesting to a lot of us because this is the main area that most on this forum seem to be talking about. That said, I am fascinated because in the building that I have the condo in for rental there were 5 up for sale in the past month and they all are gone.
As relates to YR; I notice anecdotally that there are 5 houses for sale around me whereas previously there had been maybe 1 every 6 months or 2 tops. 2 have sold but the other 3 have been up now at least 1 month and 2 for many months. People have been pushing the price envelope and buyers at least here in Oakville are not biting. That said, the market from $500-$800K is very hot according to realtors I have spoken to. The problem is beyond that and very marked at the $1.5 to 2 Mill and up where things are absolutely languishing.
I agree 100% with you that if more listings are coming on and more terminated/expired listings are increasing in numbers, this is a forward predictor. It does confuse me a bit though because on the guava site the suggestion for the GTA as a whole is that there is 2.4 months of inventory....a low figure historically: sales are low historically but so is inventory which may explain the slow sales; days on market is 32 which is low....I appreciate this figure is "massaged" as what does not show up is properties removed and relisted and showing as much less time on the market but I would have to believe this type of error has been present before this year; and median price/average price for this particular month is relatively high compared to other years though it remains to be seen if we will have the usual spring price increases as the market may or may not heat up.
Finally your last comment underlined: "when in a sellers market sellers don’t list it is because they don’t intend nor need to" I am not sure what you mean. Are you suggesting that the Realtors/Sellers are being less than forthright about the real reason for not listing... that they can't sell as they can't get the price they want? And therefore buyers who buy "arriving late" means they are overpaying if they buy now?
I can tell you that we really should distinguish end users from investors. I can't speak for all investors but as I have posted before and as Pink Lucy and Ka1 eluded to, we don't worry much about the actual value of our home as we live in it and there are intangibles at work here that mean we do not look at our investment as pure investment. I suspect we all are somewhat more objective about investment property.
Finally, to cdr's and Redfirms comment about Ka1. I just assumed and I am sure Ka1 as a "beancounter" has figured out to transfer the equity from RoCP to Aura if he moves into it as a principal residence. It is clear despite his attempts to stimulate discussion that he is savvy and fully understands what he should do if he moves to Aura. I believe his 50% comment refers to the fact that as relates to his home to live, the paper value is actually quite irrelevant (other than for the financing of it) since he would have no intention of selling whether up 20% or down 50%. Clearly for the "rental property" and for the long term future, it will be a relevant issue.