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Baby, we got a bubble!?

I stated my likely already proven technically wrong prediction that the market peaked on May 17th 2011 back on that date. The 17th was added for comic effect. But to be honest I don't even post or read this thread too often any more. My judgement is beginning to become impaired by the emotional desire for the market to stablize so that not so many people (including my friends and family) will get hurt.

I found this comment interesting:

"Builders, however, maintain the market is robust and suggest many who issue dire warnings are underestimating demand. While some suggest up to 60 per cent of all city condos are bought by investors, Tridel Group of Companies senior vice-president Jim Ritchie said his numbers suggest no more than 15 per cent of buyers are looking for an investment."

I'm not suggesting he is not right; however, history proves that when markets change most builders cannot make the call and their failure to do so proves fatal. As I mentioned elsewhere the reason so many projects are being built by companies who are new is not because they are smarter than their fathers. It is because so many of their
fathers went under when they failed to see change coming and it is in this vacuum that the seeds of their current success were germinated.
 
CG, I'd like to repeat my question to you: what's going on with Ritz and Trump? Some not so optimistic news lately about these two....
Also, what happened to that penthouse in Aura? Still on the market?
 
The American dream now just a pipe dream for many
steve ladurantaye
NASHVILLE— From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011 7:24PM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2011 7:42AM EST
Tomer Minuskin builds houses in Nashville, but nobody wants to own them at the moment.
It’s a problem that has dragged down U.S. home builders from coast to coast, as builders try to keep their businesses going while hundreds of thousands of houses are sitting empty as the result of a wave of foreclosures that have devastated real estate values.
His latest property is a bungalow that sits alone on a cul-de-sac, ready for its first occupant to step through the doors and call it home. When it sells, he’ll think about building another. And so on, until the market recovers enough to justify a new construction surge.
But whoever moves into the house isn’t likely to feel the pride of ownership, because they aren’t likely to be owners at all. In a country that was built on a foundation of home ownership, everyone wants to rent. It’s a fundamental shift that threatens to reshape the country’s economic landscape – new houses are a key source of economic growth in any economy and owners have historically been more financially secure than those who’ve opted to rent.
“This way the houses are kept nice, and we can keep building a little bit here and there whenever we manage to fill a house,” says Mr. Minuskin, as he sits in his very quiet sales office.
Data released Tuesday by the Commerce Department highlight the industry’s problems. There was a surge in building permits in November, a 9.3-per-cent jump from October. But single-family home permits increased by only 2.3 per cent, while apartment construction surged 32 per cent.
Last year, builders began work on roughly 587,000 homes, the worst year on record. This year, construction may top 600,000. That’s because the American dream of homeownership has deteriorated into a nightmare for almost 20 per cent of all homeowners, who have run into trouble with their mortgages and become embroiled in bitter foreclosure battles with their banks.
“It hasn’t been much easier for the other 80 per cent of homeowners either, with tight mortgage credit, high unemployment and negative wealth effects limiting the pool of potential home buyers while a massive backlog of liquidations continues to put downward pressure on home prices,” he said.
The difficult circumstances are leading to a rental renaissance that few could have predicted a decade ago. Indeed, the rental market has posted a remarkable resurgence as Americans turn their back on ownership.
“Rental vacancy rates have fallen faster than they ever have, and rents are rising across the country – even in some of the hardest hit areas of the housing and economic downturn,” he said. “Driven by a once again increasing household formation rate, positive job creation and a surge of distressed homeowners forced to move to rental housing, demand for rental units is booming.”
It’s an opinion shared by commercial real estate company CBRE Inc., which recently published research that suggested the U.S. economy and housing market are slowly coming out of a deep slump and there is a “good chance that a combination of improving household growth and steady or falling home ownership rates will produce the strongest growth in rental demand since the 1980s.”
But it’s not an easy shift – even though Victor Garcia faces foreclosure, his ultimate goal is to either dig his way out of debt or rent long enough for his credit to rebound if he loses his house.
The heavy machinery operator lives in Jacksonville, Fla., with his girlfriend, who is a call centre operator, but their low-interest mortgage has ballooned to 5.4 per cent as their rate reset from an initial promotional rate that was below 3 per cent. He’s close to missing his first payment and he doesn’t expect to recover if that happens.
“I want to stay but I’m not sure it’s worth it any more,” he said, as he waited to speak to a mortgage counsellor who ultimately wasn’t able to help lower his rate. “You can’t take your credit rating with you when you die, and this stress is killing me.”
If he does walk away, he’ll be adding to the inventory of more than 2.5 million homes that are sitting empty in America because of the foreclosure crisis. Analysts estimate another 7.5 million homes could join them in the next few years.
 
But it’s not an easy shift – even though Victor Garcia faces foreclosure, his ultimate goal is to either dig his way out of debt or rent long enough for his credit to rebound if he loses his house.
The heavy machinery operator lives in Jacksonville, Fla., with his girlfriend, who is a call centre operator, but their low-interest mortgage has ballooned to 5.4 per cent as their rate reset from an initial promotional rate that was below 3 per cent. He’s close to missing his first payment and he doesn’t expect to recover if that happens.
“I want to stay but I’m not sure it’s worth it any more,” he said, as he waited to speak to a mortgage counsellor who ultimately wasn’t able to help lower his rate. “You can’t take your credit rating with you when you die, and this stress is killing me.” .


from just under 3 per cent to 5.4 per cent ... THAT'S crushing him, just a 2.5% increase !?!

what do you think will happen in Canada when all those fixed 5-year terms come due for renewal?
i can imagine a mere 2.5% rate increase by then.

typical Canadian mortgages are not much different than US Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

at least in the US, if one originally had a 25-, 30-, 35-, 40-year amortization, they can also fix the rate for the whole term, if they qualified.
 
6744 square foot New York condo goes for $13000 per square foot. P.S. It's for a student, who needs a place to stay while visiting New York. :p

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-s-daughter-pays-record-sum-for-nyc-pad.html

Former Citigroup chairman Sandy Weill listed his 6,744-sq-ft apartment at 15 Central Park West for an astonishing $88 million in November, promising to donate the proceeds of the sale to charity.

Now comes news that Ekaterina Rybolovleva, the 22-year-old daughter of Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev, is buying the condominium. Rybolovleva is currently studying at an undisclosed U.S. university and plans to stay in the apartment when visiting New York. According to a source familiar with the sale, she paid the full asking price of $88 million, setting a record for highest individual transaction in New York City history.
 
6744 square foot New York condo goes for $13000 per square foot. P.S. It's for a student, who needs a place to stay while visiting New York. :p

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-s-daughter-pays-record-sum-for-nyc-pad.html

Former Citigroup chairman Sandy Weill listed his 6,744-sq-ft apartment at 15 Central Park West for an astonishing $88 million in November, promising to donate the proceeds of the sale to charity.

Now comes news that Ekaterina Rybolovleva, the 22-year-old daughter of Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev, is buying the condominium. Rybolovleva is currently studying at an undisclosed U.S. university and plans to stay in the apartment when visiting New York. According to a source familiar with the sale, she paid the full asking price of $88 million, setting a record for highest individual transaction in New York City history.


more money than brains ... at least counter-offer with a lower price !

i wonder if all the $88 million will truly go to charity as 'promised'?
 
from just under 3 per cent to 5.4 per cent ... THAT'S crushing him, just a 2.5% increase !?!

what do you think will happen in Canada when all those fixed 5-year terms come due for renewal?
i can imagine a mere 2.5% rate increase by then.

typical Canadian mortgages are not much different than US Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

at least in the US, if one originally had a 25-, 30-, 35-, 40-year amortization, they can also fix the rate for the whole term, if they qualified.

Number to track is the mortgage's in arrears. I doubt a large segment of the Canadian population has a large mortgage with 2.5% 5 year fixed
 
Investors fight to back out of Trump tower
Trump woes could have serious implications for Toronto’s overheated condo market.

You can view this story at: http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1103497--investors-fight-to-back-out-of-trump-tower


what surprised me was the following:

'Recently a U.S. buyer — citing two years of delays in the 60-storey project and “financial difficulties” — won the right from the Ontario Court of Appeal to renege on his $709,000 condo/hotel suite purchase at the landmark Bay and Adelaide property.'


the decision:

http://irvinschein.com/2011/11/22/d...dominium-units-how-long-is-too-long/#more-391

On November 8, 2011, the Ontario Court of Appeal released its decision in the case of Schneeberg v. Talon International Development Inc. (2011 ONCA 687), a case involving the sale of a condominium unit to be built in the Trump International Towers development in downtown Toronto, Ontario.

Mr. Schneeberg bought the unit to be built under an agreement made in 2004. The agreement provided that the closing would take place on March 20, 2009, assuming that it was ready for occupancy. It was not ready on that date, and the vendor attempted to unilaterally extend the closing date to give itself more time to finish it. Eventually, Mr. Schneeberg decided to terminate the transaction and brought an application to the court for the return of his deposits. The application judge granted that relief, and the vendor appealed to the Court of Appeal.


Purchasers must be given some reasonable opportunity to terminate transactions if delays are excessive.

The fact that newly constructed condominium units are frequently not ready for occupancy on the date originally contemplated by the parties and reflected in the Agreement of Purchase and Sale is well known to anyone who has ever been involved in this type of transaction. The Court of Appeal made the following observations:

“There is no dispute over the fact that purchases and sales of condominiums are commercial transactions within an industry uniquely plagued by delays. These delays are caused by the market, as the sale of units in a new development dictates the availability of financing, by the vagaries in the construction process, and by the complexities associated with the registration process required by the Condominium Act. Delays in the closing of condominium units are expected. They are part of the business of developing condominium projects and, it follows, part of purchasing a newly-constructed unit.”

It makes some sense to think that someone purchasing a unit for investment might well be able to tolerate closing date extensions of some or perhaps any length. Someone purchasing the unit to live in it may not have the same tolerance level. Considerations such as the sale of one’s existing residence, for example, can be highly relevant. Lengthy unilateral extensions of the closing date by a vendor who has not been able to get the building built and the unit ready for occupancy can create havoc for a purchaser who is also an end-user.

Nevertheless, vendors will inevitably attempt to include in their standard form of Agreement of Purchase and Sale rights to extend the closing date unilaterally in order to accommodate construction and development delays. Indeed, this is one of the provisions which any purchaser must review with his or her lawyer before finalizing the commitment to purchase a unit to be constructed. In this case, a poorly draft agreement proved to be the vendor’s downfall.

The application judge reviewed the agreement with a fine-tooth comb and concluded that notwithstanding what the vendor may have assumed to be boiler-plate provisions permitting it to unilaterally extend the closing date indefinitely, no such provisions actually existed. The Court of Appeal reviewed the same provisions and agreed. The appeal judges pointed out that while the agreement contained a variety of provisions clearly contemplating such a right of extension to exist, no one provision specifically gave the vendor to unilaterally extend the closing date, either as a result of the unit not being ready for occupancy or for any other reason.

The closest that the vendor could get was the provision that said that the purchaser would take occupancy on March 20, 2009 “or such extended accelerated date pursuant to the terms hereof that the Unit is substantially completed …”. In the Court of Appeal, the vendor argued that this provision contemplated that the closing date would be extended until the unit was substantially completed.

The Court of Appeal disagreed, pointing out that while this clause contemplated an extended date “pursuant to the terms hereof”, no such terms actually existed anywhere else in the Agreement. This gap was enough to allow Mr. Schneeberg to terminate the transaction.

In reaching its conclusion, the Court also made the following interesting statement:

“Against this background, it is quite understandable that the parties expressed their accord in such a way as to contemplate extensions to the closing date. However, it would be absurd to interpret the Agreement as giving the Vendor the right to extend closing on a basis that is not only unilateral, but also unlimited. Among other problems, such a right would be open to manipulation and abuse.”

While the Court was discussing this particular agreement in making the statement, in my view, it clearly points to a judicial disinclination to enforce agreements which seem to give a vendor an unlimited right to closing date extensions. Simply put, purchasers must be given some reasonable opportunity to terminate transactions if delays are excessive.

While typical purchase agreements may not be drafted as poorly as this one appears to have been, I think that this decision suggests that in a case of patently unreasonable delays, a court may be willing to stretch to find some basis upon which to allow a purchaser out of the deal.
 
what surprised me was the following:
While typical purchase agreements may not be drafted as poorly as this one appears to have been, I think that this decision suggests that in a case of patently unreasonable delays, a court may be willing to stretch to find some basis upon which to allow a purchaser out of the deal.

LOL... TRump will be firing someone!
 
Not likely, buying a condo for over a $1000 psf in Toronto at its launch in 2006 was the start of the problem

Buters backing out of binding contracts with Ontario Court of Appeals consent will send shockwaves through the condo development industry. Don't kid yourself.
 
Buters backing out of binding contracts with Ontario Court of Appeals consent will send shockwaves through the condo development industry. Don't kid yourself.

Maybe I missed something but based on the dates the buyers were entitled to walk. Before the rules changed a couple of.years ago wasn't there a max of 2 years beyond the closing date that the buyer could walk? When that 2 years was up with my condo I had to sign an amendment but I was entitled to walk if I wished to.
 
Maybe I missed something but based on the dates the buyers were entitled to walk. Before the rules changed a couple of.years ago wasn't there a max of 2 years beyond the closing date that the buyer could walk? When that 2 years was up with my condo I had to sign an amendment but I was entitled to walk if I wished to.

Has that changed? So now even if a project is delayed infinitely you can not walk away?
 

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