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Baby, we got a bubble!?

condostar said:
lamb is moving to parc lofts - another one of his projects.
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I wonder how long he'll stay there. How long was he at Tip Top?

I'm just curious about the usual flipper schedule. People I know try to do it 3 years or so. However, the spouses HATE it, since it means moving so often and never really having a true permanent home.
 
Canadian bond yields have dropped again (following the US).

The 5-year bond yield is now 1.92%. That's very, very low. The current Royal Bank posted 5-year rate is 5.39%, or a difference of 3.47%. Traditionally, the spread is below 3%.

Even though rates are now at near-record lows, I wouldn't be surprised to see fixed rates drop even more in the next few weeks. If they drop, or else merely stay flat, or even go up slightly, that will continue to encourage home sales.
 
Here we go, just posted this afternoon:

Yields Crash. Lower Fixed Mortgage Rates Coming

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Today we’ve already seen:

A major bank lower discounted fixed broker rates by 10 bps to 3.69%
A few non-bank lenders cut 5-year fixed rates by 10 bps
Brokers offering 3.39% on no-frills mortgages.

Variable-rate mortgagors should also benefit from all of this (mortgage-wise, if not economically). That’s because a BoC rate hike appears to be off the table in 2011…if you believe what OISs and BAX futures are implying. If true, prime rate will stay put for at least the short-to-medium term.
 
cdr108 said:
of course it is.

what other industry can:
* guarantee prices will go up without penalty or sanctions;
* front run a purchase in pre-construction with brokers, friends and family before the public;
* have complete lack of transparency in the resale bidding transactions;
* insert your item here
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* Lets anybody into the club for about $1800 (courses and first years dues IIRC) and 2 months effort (classes).

Anybody complaining about this should get their license by October and do the same.
 
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Eug said:
Latest Teranet numbers:

Canada
June 2005: 100.00
April 2010: 134.55
April 2011: 140.47 (+4.40% yoy)

Vancouver
June 2005: 100.00
April 2010: 153.40
April 2011: 162.26 (+5.78% yoy)

Toronto
June 2005: 100.00
April 2010: 121.64
April 2011: 126.62 (+4.09% yoy)

Prices are up roughly 14% since I bought in summer 2007, and up about 80% since I bought in 1999.

No, I did not just mis-type the Vancouver numbers for Toronto.
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Latest Teranet numbers:

Canada
May 2010: 136.32
May 2011: 142.27 (+4.36%)

Vancouver
May 2010: 155.23
May 2011: 164.92 (+6.24%)

Toronto
May 2010: 123.03
May 2011: 128.72 (+4.62%)

These indices are the highest in history. May 2011 represents a new peak for Canada, Vancouver, and Toronto. Calgary is still quite a bit off the peak though. Calgary's peak was 175.31 in Aug. 2007, but it's only 153.72 in May 2011, which represents a 12.3% drop from peak. In contrast, Toronto is up 15.7% from Aug. 2007's 111.27 (which is when I bought my current house). So if there was a 15% drop by next year, I'd just be back where I started.
 
Eug said:
Latest Teranet numbers:

Canada
May 2010: 136.32
May 2011: 142.27 (+4.36%)

Vancouver
May 2010: 155.23
May 2011: 164.92 (+6.24%)

Toronto
May 2010: 123.03
May 2011: 128.72 (+4.62%)

These indices are the highest in history. May 2011 represents a new peak for Canada, Vancouver, and Toronto. Calgary is still quite a bit off the peak though. Calgary's peak was 175.31 in Aug. 2007, but it's only 153.72 in May 2011, which represents a 12.3% drop from peak. In contrast, Toronto is up 15.7% from Aug. 2007's 111.27 (which is when I bought my current house). So if there was a 15% drop by next year, I'd just be back where I started.
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Eug I believe you are likely up more than 15.7%. It depends on neighbourhoods but I believe single family houses are up more than condos/townhouses in the time frame. Anyhow, you have to live somewhere so on a principal residence, who really cares. It is more important for investment property.

More turmoil in the world. Gold record high. Swiss franc hits highs and is up 12% vs. Euro in 1 month so the Swiss National Bank just lowered interest rates to 0 to 0.25% to try to lower the currency. Problems in euro land (Italy and Spain now). Problems with the USD. And yet, prices just happily go up in Toronto for real estate because everything is "fine".

As was pointed out, 5 year bonds and therefore mortgages are again dropping tempting more people to take more and more risks and continue to bid up prices. What I don't get is do not people realize the bond market is saying the "world economies" as a whole are in a lot of trouble for many years to come. I suspect other than government workers salaries will plateau and people will be stretching even more to afford that house which keeps increasing in price.
 
Dont you think if interest rates go down there be more confidence in the real estate market?....if its affordable then buyers will always try and enter the market,not all are speculators some just wants a home.Look at the amount of people moving into the downtown core,the activity at restaurants and clubs is amazing and continues to flourish.Is this a sign of a meltdown?..its a sign of a growing city with a demand for housing,with a vacancy rate of less than %1.7 and falling in the city the demand for rental or personal housing is still strong.Prices for new projects are a bit crazy but the ones already built there is still good bargains out there.
 
ducati0000 said:
Dont you think if interest rates go down there be more confidence in the real estate market?....if its affordable then buyers will always try and enter the market,not all are speculators some just wants a home.Look at the amount of people moving into the downtown core,the activity at restaurants and clubs is amazing and continues to flourish.Is this a sign of a meltdown?..its a sign of a growing city with a demand for housing,with a vacancy rate of less than %1.7 and falling in the city the demand for rental or personal housing is still strong.Prices for new projects are a bit crazy but the ones already built there is still good bargains out there.
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"....and down with nay sayers and bears...."
 
ducati0000 said:
Dont you think if interest rates go down there be more confidence in the real estate market?....
Click to expand...

Yes, I think there will but unfortunately I think that given home ownership rates already at very high levels that we are now venturing into the territory of those who should not own owning and being very marginal.

I have no proof of this. This is just my gut. But we have very high ownership rates of 70%+. My suspicion is that a lot of buying left is being down by marginal home buyers and by investors. If the figures of foreign investment are to be believed, and also the investors in condos (some estimates as high as 60%), presumably if they behave as investors they will bail at the first signs of unsustainability or alternatively when a better investment is available. Not a doom and gloom statement. Just a rationale conclusion that I am trying to put out there.
 
So all this talk about a so called buble bursting? well where is this buble? I have heard this BS for years.
Please leave this assumptions behind, only a Realtor truley knows where the market is going and it up.

There is no better time to buy than now, contact me for detals!
 
"only a Realtor truly knows where the market is going" good one, i'm sure they will tell their potential clients not to buy and give up commissions.

Truth is 99% of realtors have no clue whatsoever, talk to a economist who actually knows about finance.
 
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