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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Ka1, I always posted against the grain here, some thought I had other motives of self interest. It was always my genuine opinion and the business I live and breath everyday thats the honesty, intergrity and knowledge of not only my business fundamentals and core values that I represent buyers and sellers with but also use for my own investing. I do well in the business and quite frankly dont post here to gain business at all. My opinions and insight are my time to help others in their vision or quest for prosperity.

I kinda miss that Simulus fellow, where is he? I remember him saying for me and interested to get a room :) funny guy lol! He was on the bearish side but respected my views.....
 
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Condo George I am glad that you are back on this thread. You must know by now that I and Interested like to hear from you the latest market condition updates and your opinions. Whether we agree or not with your posts that is irrelevant and should not deter you from posting your views. As a R/E, with your ears to the ground, your attitude should be "Lord, forgive them. They don't know what they are saying".
 
As of tomorrow, this thread is 1.5 years old. Still no bubble bursting.

7 years ago, the area was a sketchy dump. A lot of the revitalization is directly attributable to Freed developments (the buyer of the site in question). Pretty smart company.
I lived a few blocks from there 7 years ago. It wasn't sketchy. Maybe it was in the 90s, but not 7 years ago IMO. Remember, it's just a few steps from where Susur was.
 
Condo George,
just wondering - what is your knowledge of Vancouver r/e market? Do you think there's a bubble there? Do you think the prices there are sustainable in the mid-long run there? If yes, why?
What do you think about avrg income to price ratio there?
Thanks
 
Vancouver

Greenspans famous erational exhuberence at this time.

March sales 4080 30.7 perct yoy increase
Feb sales 3097 or 31.7 compared to March

Interested to see the trend moving forward

My personal prediction summer will level off demand/supply

I think Vancouver is displaying a bit of buyer panic hence the outrageuos over ask bidding

This is what happens when fence sitters start jumping in after a turbulent 2010

Yes concerned about income ratios but then again, alot of foreign money into Vancouver, ratios for locals matter.

Seller market at this time.

March 2010 avg price $584,435 March 2011 $615,810

Hope this helps, I am in a rush sorry for the short form points hope this helps
 
From Remax condos plus Jamie Johnson blog:

http://by164w.bay164.mail.live.com/?rru=inbox


SALES COMMENTARY:

March continued the upward trend in sales, as 9200 units were sold on TREB. This number was 11% lower than March of 2010 which was a record. In April we are expecting about 9600 sales which will again be lower than last year’s record number. In spite of what the media reports, this market is very strong – what separates it from last year are really two factors: first the poor weather in comparison to last year’s spring; and secondly, a lack of listing inventory – new listings in March were 19% lower than in March a year ago. When the weather improves and listings increase, we expect to see 2011 sales on a monthly basis move ahead of 2010 perhaps by May or June at the latest. No one is forecasting that except us!

The downtown condo market presents a different market. Here condo sales in March were 6% higher than March of 2010. This trend will continue for the balance of the year. The reason of course is that so many new condo projects are being registered and are entering the resale market. The question being asked is can the market absorb this many new units? The answer is yes!! The sale-to-listing ratio downtown for condos was 48% this March versus 55% last March – not much of a difference when you factor in all the new condos entering the resale market.

This month, we tracked sales at a newly registered condo – the Vibe at 100 Western Battery in Liberty Village. It was built by Monarch and was just registered at the end of 2010. The first unit we tracked was a two-bedroom/2 bath unit with parking sold by the Developer in 2009 for $390,000. The identical unit, at 838 sf, sold in January and February of this year for $424,000 and $425,000. By March the unit sold for $433,000 or $515 per sf. A smaller unit at 611 sf – a one-bedroom with parking sold at the end of 2010 for $305,000 (probably as an assignment). Two identical units sold in February this year for $322,000 and $324,000 or $530 per sf. The point to be made for buyers is that assignments are cheaper and once the building is registered prices usually go up by $20,000.

RENTAL COMMENTARY:

As predicted, rental rates are moving up and there is a significant shortage of available units, even with record rental volumes. There were 22 studios, 383 one-bedroom units and 223 two-bedroom units leased in March. The number of rentals is an indication that the majority of investors in the pre-construction market have decided to rent rather than sell their units at registration! Studios leased at an average rate of $1325. One-bedroom units without parking averaged $1550. Add a den plus parking and you can pay $1725! Renters are now looking to convert a den into a second bedroom. The market for two-bedroom units is also in high demand and units start at $1950 and go to $2400 for a den and parking. There are no three bedroom units in the market place – developers don’t build them! Only five units were leased last month at an average price of $3500. How tight is this market? The average one bedroom stays on the market 6-10 days and many attract multiple offers.


I think this is absolutely fascinating. I am looking in particular at his comment that he expects this to be even more than the record year 2010 by May or June (month on month). I am also suprised by the rental price increases. One bedroom averaging $1550 and 6-10 days on the market. That will at least help a bit the increasing costs of condos but I would still be a renter today and wait for a correction despite this. That said, I do appreciate Jamie Johnson providing us with numbers in each of his blogs.
 
Rentals are underpriced. They have to go up to support the market. If they don't, prices will soon level off.
 
actually historically TCW prices have stayed pretty constant with minimal increases to date over the past decade. One could argue that because interest rates dropped as well landlords were able to hold rents or would not increase them. REality is prices have doubled over 10 years and rents are perhaps up 10%.
The other reality is it will be a tug of war between landlords and renters as to how much rents can increase if they increase. Supply and demand will have an impact but also the ability of renters to pay the increased rents will come into question.

an interesting point in Jamie Johnson's article is that people are using a den as a bedroom. This may be due to shortage of 2 bedrooms but more likely costs are driving people to sleep in a den rather than a den since the rent is cheaper.
 
an interesting point in Jamie Johnson's article is that people are using a den as a bedroom. This may be due to shortage of 2 bedrooms but more likely costs are driving people to sleep in a den rather than a den since the rent is cheaper.
anecdotally, that is what a number of students I know are doing -- splitting rent on a 1+1 is cheaper, plus affordable 2 bedrooms are hard to find. I spent much of last summer searching.
 
I know rental prices have stayed low. If foreign investors are going to keep buying properties, rental rates need to increase or prices will start leveling off.
 
... an interesting point in Jamie Johnson's article is that people are using a den as a bedroom. This may be due to shortage of 2 bedrooms but more likely costs are driving people to sleep in a den rather than a den since the rent is cheaper.


considering alot of the newer stock of condos within the past 5 years have interior bedrooms without windows, are no larger than 9ft x 9ft, and large dens are sold / marketed as a 'bedroom' by many developers ... the public might as well use them as such and if the city says they are unlawful, well, the city should go after the developers for selling them as 'bedrooms'
 

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