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Baby, we got a bubble!?

+rep if you know what these cities/areas have in common... Orange County, Miami, New York, Beverly Hills, Toronto
 
Shtopor,
one further question. New York fell by 20% over what period and also how much did it rise over the past 10 years because I think that would be relevant. If TO say was up about 80-100% but New York up 150-200% for example (I don't know the numbers) then would not the corresponding expectation in TO be 10% drop or half, all other things being equal. And New York dropped because it was at the center of the crisis, but prior, it also was at a much higher starting cost. I am not saying this does not mean prices won't correct, I am just not sure we can draw direct comparisons.
 
Hi all, I thought below post made on another forum might be interesting and relevant for this thread:

It is absolutely alarming to think Toronto alone as 17,000 new units entering the market this year. I’m sure people cannot comprehend what that really entails, but allow me to break it down. All things are relative.
The closest U.S. market to a city such as Toronto would be New York City. Each city is the beacon of financial strength within each country, and each are relatively close to one another on the Eastern side of each country. Here’s the deal… Stay with me now…
Toronto has a metro population of 5,113,000 people. New York City has a metro population of 19,007,000 people. Toronto has 17,000 ADDITIONAL condos coming to market this year, NOT including existing inventory today. New York has about 12,700 condos on the market today. These are the data points we will use for this discussion.
New York is almost 3.72 times the size of Toronto, or 372% larger than Toronto. However, New York has significantly less aggregated inventory coming to fruition compared to that of Toronto. New York has 4,300 LESS condos in inventory than Toronto to serve a market that is 372% larger than Toronto.
Prices, even in New York, have declined over 20%. Yes, prices fell that much even with inventory supply at that minimum level. So, what’s this say for Toronto? Well, these numbers indicate that, when adjusted for population, Toronto has 500%, FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT, of the inventory of New York. THAT DOESN’T EVEN INCLUDE EXISTING TORONTO INVENTORY.

17,000 completions of which probably 80% are already pre-sold to credit worthy buyers with 20% deposits.

As Interested stated above, we need the full picture. Toronto/GTA is clearly fractionally smaller than the NY Metro Area but it wouldn't totally shock me to learn that the GTA is growing at a somewhat comparable annual population rate. Although Atlanta is too growing rapidly yet prices there are in free fall and probably <50% of prices in Toronto so population growth alone does not account for home sales.

If you really want to sound the alarm bells you need more credible data. We need to know the following:

1. Annual population growth of the NYC Metro area (assume 80,000 for GTA)
2. Total new housing sales in Toronto and NYC in 2010

Those facts should help clear up the picture, coupled with the fact that NYC is still in the midst of a deep regional financial crisis as well as deep and prolonged housing recession. If someone could provide these figures I would be grateful as well.
 
In general, crunching the numbers for some other cities / countries and then trying to use those results to predict what's going to happen in Toronto is not the way to go. So many other variables are present that no equation, no matter how evolved or complicated, will ever capture. I think that (recent) events abroad are more useful if used as a general reminder of what happens when some basic rules are ignored.
 
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I'm part of this age group and I'm waiting too. (C'mon, bubble!?)


"Young adults holding off on home ownership, survey finds"

"As rising home prices continue to outpace income growth, many young Canadians have decided to delay home ownership for another year, according to a poll released Thursday by Royal Bank of Canada.

RBC’s annual home ownership poll found that 55 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 said it made sense to delay a home purchase until next year. That’s 10 percentage points more than the national average for all age groups.

Meanwhile, about half of the young people in the survey who had already delved into home ownership said their mortgage was eating up too much of their income — suggesting their peers may have good reason to wait."


and

"Some young people watching home prices soar beyond pre-recession levels may be waiting for a widely predicted drop anticipated over the next year or so, said David Madani, Canada economist at Capital Economics.

“We’ve kind of reached a threshold in the sense that affordability is pretty tough,” he said.

“Yeah, mortgage rates are low but, and its a big but, prices are really really high relative to income, so if you’re talking about a potential young home buyer who is living in Toronto or Vancouver or some other big market, its really pricey to get into right now, so that’s discouraging for some young home buyers.”"
 
Greenleaf,
I can understand your frustration ... a close relative of mine is in the same boat. But you shouldn't be hoping for "our bubble" to burst. The best for all of us would be for r/e market to stabilaze, and for incomes and rents to catch up.

Anyways, happy house haunting ... whenever you decide to pull the trigger!
 
I am amazed. This is not an apartment. This is a room with a bathroom. It is remarkable what one can do when one is young.
Reality is you have to be out of there most of the time. I think she is the exception rather than the rule as I don't think there are
too many people who could survive this for 3 years as she has. On the other hand, it frees up capital for her I guess to eat. I am
not sure if she can actually cook but I guess people in New York/ Manhattan have access to alot of restaurants but the additional
cost of food would surely add to the $700. That said, I a believe in Manhattan an actual apartment probably can't be had under $2000
and that I am guessing would be for 500 sq.ft.. I don't know this but am just speculating.
This reminds me of Japan where they were advertising "pods" that were about 40 sq.ft. but this was for a day or 2 or a few hours I believe
usage, not for 3 years.
She is to be congratulated however on learning to live within her means and doing this when young. It is easy to climb up on the horse but tough to
get down, so I think she can manage this now but when she gets used to more room, I am not sure she would be able to revisit this space for 3 years.
 
If you think Toronto is expensive...

New York: 90 square foot apt. for $700/mo

And to think, the left over hardwood flooring from my basement reno that I have no use for covers more of an area than her whole apt.


i saw that too ...
that's $7.90 PSF/m

at least NYC rents would cover the cost of a rental property investment, unlike dt Toronto where the average new(er) condo's rental rate is $2.50 - 3.00 PSF/m.
 
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cdr, I think that covers as it is 90 sq.ft.
I know NYC rents are high but are they really 3x Toronto rents for the same space or is this an aberancy because the space is so small. (Generally as you appreciate smaller spaces rent for more/sq.ft. than larger ones).
 
I came across this from Jamie Johnson at Remax condos plus.

It really made me laught.

I wonder if this is really all of us on this forum discussing this topic. LOL. I know I qualify by these standards (IQ of 75) to discuss real estate.

Forecasting the Toronto Real Estate Market
Posted on March 23, 2011 by admin

Since the so called experts keep missing on the market, and the main stream media keeps publishing these errors, we decided that the only way to deal with these misconceptions is with humour. Hence we are repeating our favourite joke.

When Einstein went to heaven, he asked the first person he came across: “what is your IQ?” The person answered: “200”. “Perfect” said Einstein: “We can talk about nuclear physics.”

When Einstein ran into a second person, he asked the same question about their IQ. The person replied:”140”. “Perfect” said Einstein: “We can talk about politics”.

When Einstein ran into a third person, he again asked the same question about their IQ. The person replied this time “75”. “Perfect” said Einstein: “So where do you think the real estate market is headed!!”

This entry was posted in Canadian Condo Market, Canadian Real Estate, Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast and tagged Froecasting Toronto Real Estate Market. Bookmark the permalink.
 
To those who scoff at the concept of $400 per sq ft in downtown Toronto, These are actual selling prices close to the St. Lawrence Market:


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...s-with-rare-200-sq-ft-terrace/article1976644/

Boiler Factory Lofts at 189 Queen E, 1160 sq ft, with 200 sq ft terrace, 12 foot ceilings, exposed brick walls, hardwood floors for $480100 = $413.88 / sq ft.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...fers-for-toronto-one-plus-den/article1976625/

Lofts on Frederick at 180 Frederick, 850 sq ft. with skylit hallways, 11 foot ceilings, hardwood floors, for $350000 = $411.76 / sq ft.
 

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