News   Jun 28, 2024
 4K     5 
News   Jun 28, 2024
 1.9K     2 
News   Jun 28, 2024
 662     1 

Baby, we got a bubble!?

Happy Page 200!!! :)

Not in downtown, that's for sure
Well, you can get close at least for a 2-bedroom unit. Just don't expect to get a new build or a swimming pool or a 24/7 concierge or granite countertops, etc.

A decent 2 bedroom place that was over 1000 sq. feet went north of Front and East of Bathurst was listed for the low $400s a while back. (Or do you consider East of Bathurst but West of Spadina outside of downtown?) I suppose it could have gone for say $50000 over listing, but even then that's much less than $500 per square foot.

I consider the $723 per square foot cost to represent luxury condo prices, not mainstream condo pricing. $723 per square foot represents almost a 50% premium (!) over what I personally would spend downtown.

---

Let's do some calculations of my townhouse that I sold in 2007 H2. This 2 bed 1 bath unit with 200 sq. ft. private rooftop patio and outdoor natural gas line, as well as attached 1-car parking was $380000.

IIRC, $380000 was the highest priced sale for such a unit until then. In fact that $380000 was well over my asking price. A similar unit had gone for $360000 (mirror image) just a couple months prior. The main difference was mine had engineered hardwood in the living room, and mine had a gas stove.

According to Teranet, the Toronto index was 111.27 back then. In Dec. 2010 it was 124.43, an increase of just under 12%.

That would make that unit worth $380000 x 1.118 = $425000.

The unit was 1040 square feet, not including garage or patio. That makes it $409 per square foot as of the end of Dec. 2010.

So, let's be generous and add another 10% on top of that, for hand-waving internetness and because we don't have the numbers for Jan. - March yet from Teranet. That still only brings it up to $450 per square foot, which seems like it's in the right ballpark, if not a bit high.

$723/450 represents a 60% premium. Basically, if you think $723 is the going rate, either you're looking in the wrong places or else you have got very specific requirements in terms of downtown location, and have a taste for much higher end amenities and finishes.
 
Last edited:
I consider the $723 per square foot cost to represent luxury condo prices, not mainstream condo pricing. $723 per square foot represents almost a 50% premium (!) over what I personally would spend downtown.

$723/450 represents a 60% premium. Basically, if you think $723 is the going rate, either you're looking in the wrong places or else you have got very specific requirements in terms of downtown location, and have a taste for much higher end amenities and finishes.

I'm not sure if you've been looking at pre-construction prices lately downtown. But $700 psf won't get you luxury anymore. If you're looking at Shangrila, 4 seasons, etc. You're looking at over $1000 psf. I think Backstage started around $600 psf. Theatre Park starting price was over $630 psf. Bachelors were starting around $723 psf. Would you consider Theatre Park a luxury condo?
Pre-construction prices have outpaced resale for the past few years and the gap is widening.
 
I'm not sure if you've been looking at pre-construction prices lately downtown. But $700 psf won't get you luxury anymore. If you're looking at Shangrila, 4 seasons, etc. You're looking at over $1000 psf. I think Backstage started around $600 psf. Theatre Park starting price was over $630 psf. Bachelors were starting around $723 psf. Would you consider Theatre Park a luxury condo?
Pre-construction prices have outpaced resale for the past few years and the gap is widening.
LOL.

http://www.theatreparkcondos.ca/

"Theatre Park is a an exciting, new luxury condo building by Lamb Development Corp in association with Niche Development. Coming this fall Theatre Park is one of the most promising project [sic] with prices ranging from $300,000 to $2,500,000."

EDIT:

BTW, since you mentioned it... I consider places like Shangri La uber luxury. Not luxury, but a big step beyond just luxury. Meanwhile, like I said before there are a lot of decent resales around downtown that still go for $400-500 per square foot... yet people whine because they can't afford $723 per sq.ft. pre-construction. Sorry, I don't buy it. Anyone who thinks $723 is representative of actual average condo sales in Toronto is hopelessly out of touch with mainstream reality.

I do know people who only look in the $700 - $1000 buildings. That's fine, but there are lots of buildings that cost much, much less. If $723 is too expensive for you, then look elsewhere, because there's lots of much more affordable stuff out there.
 
Last edited:
Here's a good article from Macleans about the Canadian economy, TSX and the housing market. 2 guys with two different views.

The Canada bubble

Thanks for posting this article. "2 guys with two different views". Pretty much that's what we have here on this board. But again, I'm not sure about this direct link between Canadian resources and
current r/e prices in, say, Vancouver and Toronto. I don't think they are where they are just because Canada has natural resources. I'd argue low cost of borrowing, and speculative investment, are the main reasons.
 
Besides this is about lifestyle choice not affordability. If you are talking $ 700 / sqft and you are looking for value just buy a house in the city core and reno it to your specifications, it's way better value.
 
Besides this is about lifestyle choice not affordability. If you are talking $ 700 / sqft and you are looking for value just buy a house in the city core and reno it to your specifications, it's way better value.
I'm not sure what you mean by that. Some of the lower cost condo resales offer decent quality, with the "lifestyle"-conducive amenities that basic condos offer, which is to say that they cover all the building and garden maintenance that is necessary, etc., but still offer value by not offering things such as high end finishes, 24/7 concierge, squash courts, pools, rental suites for guests, etc.

What you say about value in getting a house also applies to resales to a certain extent. It's actually often quite a bit cheaper to buy a basic resale unit in a building with no extra amenities, and then just to add your own finishes after the fact. You can install a much higher quality hardwood in your own unit for roughly $4 a square foot plus installation for example. You can't add a squash court, but if you don't play squash then who cares?

When I bought my condo I specifically avoided all those extras I didn't need, because I didn't want to pay for them, not only up front, but on an ongoing basis through condo fees. There were other mid-end luxury buildings that were as much as 50% more per square foot, for little added benefit (except granite countertops "free", etc.), while the high end luxury buildings cost even more.

I do agree that it seems builders are leaning more toward these more expensive buildings of late, which makes sense, because they make more money off them. However, that doesn't mean we as buyers actually have to buy in to these buildings. There's nothing stopping us from buying resale, and there are a lot of good resales in town.
 
Last edited:
They did to go back in to get small items, but all of their furniture is now garbage because they're not allowed to remove that. I suspect the same is true for desktop computers and TVs etc.

I wonder how they possibly could have built that so poorly. Did they just completely ignore engineering specs? Or did some engineer fail to carry the one?
 
They did to go back in to get small items, but all of their furniture is now garbage because they're not allowed to remove that. I suspect the same is true for desktop computers and TVs etc.

I wonder how they possibly could have built that so poorly. Did they just completely ignore engineering specs? Or did some engineer fail to carry the one?


I guess most people can recover the cost of furniture, TV computer etc, if they had bought home insurance. I think it covers up to $25,000 with most home insurance policies.

It looks like the building is new, then the building insurance which the condo corporation bought should cover most of the replacement cost, based on the apprasied value. The insurance company should first pay out the claims related to the building structure to condo corporation, then its up to them to sue the builder, or any other parties who hold the responsibility.

It might take months/years to get all these sorted out. There are tons of legal fees to be incurred before those poor condo owner get their money back
 
Last edited:
I suspect that if I moved out of my home all of a sudden and wanted to go back to get the irreplaceables and to get my data off my computers, it would take days.

Which reminds me… It's time to make a copy of my main data for off-site backup. I don't do this very often, but this may be key. I have a few off-site backups stored at work, but I wonder if BR discs fit in bank safety deposit boxes.

As for suing the condo builders, I wouldn't be surprised if they went bankrupt long before anyone could get a dime out of them. In fact, something similar is happening in Vancouver, at Olympic Village.

A $1.8-million Olympic Village dream turns sour

When Helen Lee and her husband bought a place in Vancouver’s Olympic Village back in 2007, it was still being built. But a gold-medal sales pitch compelled the couple to fork out $1.8-million for an 11th-floor, 1,475-square-foot condo with expansive mountain and water views.

Now the disgruntled homeowners have gone public with a disturbing video documenting a litany of problems, including water pouring out of light fixtures, heat not working, cracks in ceilings, hardwood floors that are bubbling because of moisture and bedrooms that are too small to fit a bed.

Most condo owners have someone to go after when things go wrong – like the developer. But Millennium went into default. The project is in the hands of a receiver, although technically the city of Vancouver really owns the project. It is selling the condos through shell companies. But think about it: The warranty for the heating and plumbing systems – which have experienced huge problems – expires next June. After that, there will be no one for the residents to go after if they have problems because they bought from a shell.
 
Last edited:
I guess most people can recover the cost of furniture, TV computer etc, if they had bought home insurance. I think it covers up to $25,000 with most home insurance policies.
The condo insurance policy we have offers $50,000 minimum coverage; you can then pay for higher.
 
I suspect that if I moved out of my home all of a sudden and wanted to go back to get the irreplaceables and to get my data off my computers, it would take days.

Which reminds me… It's time to make a copy of my main data for off-site backup. I don't do this very often, but this may be key. I have a few off-site backups stored at work, but I wonder if BR discs fit in bank safety deposit boxes.

As for suing the condo builders, I wouldn't be surprised if they went bankrupt long before anyone could get a dime out of them. In fact, something similar is happening in Vancouver, at Olympic Village.

A $1.8-million Olympic Village dream turns sour

When Helen Lee and her husband bought a place in Vancouver’s Olympic Village back in 2007, it was still being built. But a gold-medal sales pitch compelled the couple to fork out $1.8-million for an 11th-floor, 1,475-square-foot condo with expansive mountain and water views.

Now the disgruntled homeowners have gone public with a disturbing video documenting a litany of problems, including water pouring out of light fixtures, heat not working, cracks in ceilings, hardwood floors that are bubbling because of moisture and bedrooms that are too small to fit a bed.

Most condo owners have someone to go after when things go wrong – like the developer. But Millennium went into default. The project is in the hands of a receiver, although technically the city of Vancouver really owns the project. It is selling the condos through shell companies. But think about it: The warranty for the heating and plumbing systems – which have experienced huge problems – expires next June. After that, there will be no one for the residents to go after if they have problems because they bought from a shell.


I found the video, wow.
[video=youtube;WYnP4Cs6rgE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYnP4Cs6rgE[/video]
 

Back
Top