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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Anyways, I'll stick to my hypothesis that CN Tower is mentally unstable, by stating facts then, oh man, I can't even address it, it's quite too hilarious.
Please let's not allow this topic to disintegrate into a childish name calling competition. We are all adults here, are we not?
A lot of people talk about how the US printing money will create inflation. But what they don't understand is that the US is also experiencing a huge destruction of money. When housing prices go down in the US that reduces various types of money supply. It also reduces the velocity of circulation of money as people spend lower amounts, and less frequently, because their perceived wealth has decreased.

Dave - I agree with what you have concluded above for what happened in US. However I am more interested in the impact of the US phenomena on the rest of the countries...e.g. China, India, or maybe Canada?

I've read an interesting article just for sharing.

Printing money causes the wrong kind of inflation
The Fed's quantitative easing is pushing up asset prices elsewhere.

But just look at cotton prices. And gold. And farmland in Iowa and Indiana. Farmland yields (not crop yields…financial yields, from renting out the land) are at an extreme low. Prices have been bid up – thanks to record low interest rates and record high agricultural output prices.
And look at prices of Indian stocks. They’re selling near record levels too.
All over the world, prices are going up – especially in emerging markets, where economies are growing fast.
But in America, consumer prices – when you take out food and energy – are going nowhere.
Just what you’d expect in this strange correction."..
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X2 Buyer I don't believe it is appropriate for you to suggest to others that they shouldn't post here.

Polkaroo, I doubt if you have read PC's previous post that being "cleaned up" from here. I fully support this forum being free of opinions, comments, different views, almost anything in relating to the topic...but I have zero tolerance of 1) personal attack e.g. to say someone is mental 2) swear words around, which PC had both in his comment
Interesting how posts magically disappear on this forum, I'm quite surprised that the entire thread and any mention of a bubble hasn't been neatly sanitized yet.

Anyways, I'll stick to my hypothesis that CN Tower is mentally unstable, by stating facts then, oh man, I can't even address it, it's quite too hilarious.

Interested, I feel no sympathy what so ever for the someone who overextends themselves. It's called greed. We make very good money, and we work very long hours, 80+ a week. We are highly specialized and have extremely high IQ's, and we deserve our compensation. People will always look for people to blame for their own failures, but main street expects the financiers to make an economy grow, to provide efficient capital markets to provide them with the loans so they can live (essentially) beyond their means. We don't put a gun to their head and force them to do anything, they have free will and are perfectly capable of making sound decisions. We run a business, and that businesses goal is to make a profit-- nothing else. If you want to take out a loan and indebt yourself for the next 50 years and live like a bum to have some house, sure, go for it! Haha, it's highly amusing to see the daily bullshit we see at work, but in the end, the average IQ of the population is rather low, and a sizable percentage of the population would be considered mentally retarded.

I really don't concern myself with such insights. People are unintelligent and a waste of time in general, ala CN Tower and company. That article you mentioned is quite hilarious, and it sounds like it was written by a failure. Fannie was evil? Please. Payday loans? That has nothing to do with the finance industry, and with that comment alone, the author loses any credibility. We're to blame because idiots can't live within their means? QE-- the QE that Bernanke and other central bankers had to resort to because billions of greedy ordinary people wanted to portray an illusion of wealth? Wealth is generated by sweat and hard work, not by debt. Ponzi scheme? Rigging the stock market?! I think that author mentioned everything except the classic "Wall St is run by Jews and Israel", haha. I wouldn't be surprised if he were a tin-foil hat wearing, Hitler-idolizing Anti-Semite who cries over his mortgage statement every night.

Anyways I'm getting really tired with the bullshit on here, people really do have a low IQ. The writing is on the wall. Sleep tight.

well, any civilized debate with facts to supports one's view of the bubble have all gone down hill.

i've worked with both clients and many people in the financial industry ranging from CEO/President downwards to the processing clerks.
there is ignorance, greed and blind-faith with all the above that what is being done is 'ethical' and done with 'good faith' ...
believe me, that is not the case ... i've recommended the firms payout millions to make clients' whole, but i've also denied some claims where it's quite clear that the client knew what was going on and took out alot more than their principal investment but lost their paper profits because of greed.
PC, the same arguments are used by drug dealers. But if it's not illegal then I admit that there is nothing preventing you from living a pure, law of the jungle lifestyle.

Your posts seem like the typical trash talk that only happens on anonymous internet forums, and I'm guessing you woudn't be quite so sharp tongued face to face. But I admit that maybe I'm wrong, and maybe you really are as big a dick as you seem.

I whole heartedly agree daveto. It's not uncommon on various forums -it's referred to as TROLLING;)
Where is this bubble everyone has been talking about for years ?!?!

Baby, we gotta balanced market
GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

TORONTO, December 16, 2010 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 2,509 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of December 2010.

This represented a 19 per cent decrease compared to the 3,079 sales recorded during the same period in December 2009. Year-to-date sales amounted to 84,316 – down one per cent from the 2009 total of 84,888.

“While off the 2009 record, the level of December transactions remains strong from a historic perspective. The number of transactions in 2010 will be the third highest on record,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.

The average price for December mid-month transactions was $435,225 – up three per cent compared to the average of $423,103 recorded during the first 14 days of December 2009.

“Market conditions remain tight enough to support moderate growth in the average selling price. Expect the three per cent annual rate of growth reported for the first two weeks of December to be the norm in 2011,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
I understand Paper Chopper that you may have high IQ's and certainly I am not disputing your statement that you should be well compensated for 80+ hours. However, I cannot accept your sense of entitlement nor can I accept the scale of compensation as anything just or reasonable.

I preface the rest of this post to state that I am not faulting you in particular but rather view the attitude expressed as what is endemically wrong with the financial centers/people working within them.

When the average bonus compensation of all employees at Goldman Sachs is in the order of $600000/yr, please explain to me how in any reasonable frame of mind one can say that this is sensible. Is what is being done on Wall Street and other financial areas around the world so valuable that it is worth 20-say to 100x what the average worker makes and even more? Perhaps the answer is yes but I can tell you No one is irreplacable.

Is it that you truly believe if you were to leave your job tomorrow there would not be another capable person to step in and do the job and would I as a shareholder notice any difference if for example Paper Chopper or any other individual was no longer there to my bottom line. I would hazard a guess that in the overwhelming majority of cases the answer would be a resounding no. If this was a small company answering to a business owner, tell me how long one would last when one gets bonuses that are multiples of salary. It only occurs because pension funds, managers, exec's all sit on each other's boards. And by voting for A to get a huge increase means that A votes for me to get the huge increase when he sits on my Board etc. It is a flawed system.

Warren Buffet gets a $100,000 salary. That may be too low but a Hedge Fund manager in a good year makes over a billion dollars. Yes, that is very logical. Who could possibly be worth that in any sensible rationale argument. I am sure your response will be "the market dictates it" but the market is being fixed by a group of self interested parties at the top.

And when the system implodes, these so called hi IQ genei (sorry if spelled wrong) don't suffer the consequences. Witness Long Term Capital. A group of very smart individuals. If I recall, 2 Nobel Prize laureates. Gee, I guess they got it wrong levered 30 to 1 and then again it was the government/institutions/ backed by the taxpayers essentially who stepped in to prevent chaous. But in the process, the whole system is potentially tossed into havoc. At some point, a bail out just won't work. Then I assume the argument will be well that was the system and I deserved my high pay for all those years even if I destroyed the capital market as we know it in the long term. Again I am not trying to single you out PC, I am pointing it as to what I view is a collective problem of the financial industry.

In your own case you stated you worked bundling up or doing something related to all the subprime mortgages in the US. I am sure you were handsomely paid for your work as would be proper. But if you truly believe that everyone was foolish buying this stuff, how did you not come forth and say something and challenge the issue. If more people had, perhaps we would not be in the mess we are in. I appreciate one person cannot change the system but if all those collecting high salaries commenting about the greed of the little guy should appreciate their own sense of greed/entitlement. It might then be more palatable to main street. It is for this reason that Main Street has such a hate on for Wall Street I believe.

So, I don't begrudge that you make a "far above normal" living. I just believe it is collective greed at the top feeding itself to unsustainable levels at the expense of all those poor individuals who actually toil for a living and get a compensation which in some way relates to what they do. Yes, as others on the forum have said, it is the law of the jungle. Survival of the fittest.

That said, alot of individuals have a moral compass and appreciate that perhaps we have a responsibility to help those less fortunate than ourselves (without being branded a socialist, communist or anticapitalist) and not just take the attitude that if it is good for me, then I don't care about the rest of society nor hold the view that the alot of those who may not have had the opportunities that some of us more fortunate have had must are borderline "slow" as you quoted.

Again PC, I am not attacking you personally on this but rather the culture that exists in the financial industry, especially in the higher eschalons.

I apologize as I am off topic and will return to what is being discussed going forward.

Sorry somewhat off topic and please PC do not feel I am singling you out but rather am using your post as endemic of the thinking going on at the major financial centers.
It is sad(funny?) to see this thread degnenerate to the level of personal insults/name calling. This is supposed to be a place where friends -- I am not sure if this is the right word to use under the circumstances--- exchange ideas/opinions on a glass of beer, in my case, a cup of coffee -- no matter how off beat those opinions might be.

An improper commen from CN Tower has driven Condo George from this thread. He had, and still has, every right to give his bit of opions, no matter how strongly we disagree with them. And now, insults.

A few words for Paperchopper.

I am not a Christian. However, I do remember, once surfing channels, I did listen to a priest. By quoting from the Good Book, he had stated that to those God has endowed with things extra than the others, God expects more sacrifices and compassionate attitude towards the others.

Given that the God has blessed you more intelligence and wealth than the others, you should be using your telents to make posts for others enlightenment and not to look down upon others. As someone said many, many moons ago, when trees/plants bear fruits, they bend down.

Show some maturity, Man.
Paper chopper,
I for one hope you will continue to post here. I think you have insight and true knowledge that you bring that can help the rest of us on the forum and also encourage lively debate.
I think the more views expressed on the forum the better off we all are. As well, the more rational cohesive opinions and insights, the better.

As Ka1 said, we have lost others from the site which is a shame. I don't blame anyone in particular for this but Ka1 is correct saying that civility is a common courtesy those taking the time to post, whatever their opinion deserve from the rest of us.

Yes, there are those who have vested interests (and before you jump to the conclusion, I have invested some of my worth in real estate but am not an agent or have any vested interested in posting my beliefs other than that I will be severely hurt if there is a massive correction along with a significant portion of the population(anyone owning any real estate.) I post and express opinions because it is a topic of interest to me and those on this forum are clearly interested as well.

So PC, please don't take your bat and ball and go home. Rather continue to give us your insights, if perhaps toned down on the rhetoric and let the rest of us digest your arguments which for the most part I find quite sound and draw conclusions from your expertise.
I'll be brief:

On PC:

I don't mind his insults in the least. They're not personal as I am not a person. I'm merely an anonymous forum poster. I very selectively choose to divulge personal details about my business (aside from the obvious fact that it involves RE investment) so neither praise nor ridicule matter in the least to me. Just background noise that I skip over. I used some very cursory personal examples to despute some incorrect facts stated by PC. To me his info posted here lacks credibility but I don't mind his presence at all.

On CG:

He chose to leave because he knew that my comments were honest and accurate. He came here with an agenda and his comments were always motivated by it. He is an active player in the new condo market thats fueled heavily by foreign investment. His agenda is to perpetuate that market by portraying it as stable and balanced and steady. That myself and others saw through it bothered him b/c his agenda was revealed. So he took his ball and left for another playground. Fair enough. No hard feelings. CP 24 is probably a good spot to migrate. They tend to be very welcoming for those looking to push new condo sales.

My goal in this forum is objective info on the Toronto real estate market. Once presented I'll use that info to make my own decisions and determinations. So should you all.

Finally, while I agree with Mike that no bubble is present yet the disturbing drop in sales is probably a good indication that it's not far off. Thanks PC for pointing that out for us. :)
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Great post CN Tower.
While I agree that CG has a vested interest, it would still be nice to get the information he provides "on the ground". Now is it true, that is for the rest of us to decide. Except for his interests, his saying that new condo sales were busy in mid Sept going forward I think has been somewhat born out by sales at the new launches. Now whether that is justified, or the johnny come latelies, I guess time will tell.
I personally believe there is a bubble slowly expanding. The trouble is as others and I have previously posted, it often becomes clear majority once it has popped and is speculation until that time.
Anyhow, make sure you keep posting. Otherwise pretty quickly everyone with interest stuff to say will leave (and only leave me repeating my own often flawed views)
I have a question for those on this forum. Not sure if this is the right place to ask it.

Does anyone know where one can find recent stats on the number of Canadians who have a net worth of over $1million investable assets, those considered wealthy (I believe that is $10million now) and the uber wealthy ($30 million of investable assets). I wonder what percentage of the population falls into this category. My next question is if someone knows this, do they also know how much, what percentage of wealth of these 3 groups is tied up in Real estate?

Thank you.
Would those stats exist? I know that every year Maclean's releases its wealthiest Canadians report, but they can only go by what is public knowledge. I personally know someone who used to be on that list, but his ranking was based on estimates because his owned a private company and chose not to report his net worth. I know there's no place I report mine!