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Baby, we got a bubble!?

To clarify Downtown Toronto: Are you saying under $500/sq. ft. for medium range condos now at $600-$700 or a 16 to30% decrease or are you talking about even the mid luxury which is now $650-950/sq. ft.

And what about Luxury now at $1000+ to say 1600/sq. ft. and even higher (penthouses)? I realize it is a guess but how do you see all the interplays working out?

I would note that resale condos in TO are now $400 to 500/sq.ft for mid range so you are I assume anticipating resale to be below $400 and probably closer to $300 or is that a false. I would personally think that resale would not fall as much but the premium asked for new would shrink to perhaps $50/sq. ft. or possibly virtually disappear.
 
I predict at the luxury end the market won't be able to absorb all four or five luxury condo/hotel products at once, meaning price reductions of up to 30% off.:D I think Four Seasons will emerge the winner, with maybe RC in second place.

Intimate luxury buildings like the Florian/77 Charles/Pears on the Av etc may fare better....

I am talking about presales on proposed buildings falling to under $400/SF downtown west and east (LV, WD, RP areas etc) Developers who can't handle such reductions will fail or be taken over by the biggies. (These steep discounts won't last long--maybe a year--but long enough to cause panic--the point of market corrections is to separate smart money from dumb money.:D)

Smaller developers will focus on small-scale infill, in up-and-coming 'hoods. (Look at Symmetry Development's next project for example, rumoured to be in the Mimico/Lakeshore area using Teeple as the architect, with under 20 units. Or Motif Living on Ossington by Reserve Properties.) Smaller size, smaller risk.

CP has probably peaked, I see declines as more pressure is put on it from TCHC rentals....

CN Tower--I think you under estimate the power of artists and cheap industrial land revitalizing Hamilton. Look at all the developers launching loft projects in the Hammer--the same way the Toronto condo market launched into today's giant....
 
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Sorry UD.
What is CP and what are TCHC rentals?
4 Seasons I think being the pinnacle of luxury in the hotel/condo group I think will hold value but also has much more to drop since its average price is much higher than the others.
My gut tells me Shangrila (I am biased as I bought there) will do better than Ritz or Trump. I think as people travel and if Shangrila brings its incredible service to Toronto, it will become the 5 star location above the other 2 and close in on the 4 Seasons. A positive note is that Shangrila Vancouver recently was voted the best of the chain so I am hopeful Toronto will follow suit.
I hope your 30% drop (if it is that severe) is from present price because that is putting it back close to what I will have paid in 2007.
Anyhow, I can live with it being worth what I paid.
 
urbandreamer said:
. I just don't see wealthy old farts living at SL, RC or Trump.
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Hey, I am one of those want a be wealthy "old farts" you are talking about UD LOL.
I believe that Shangrila will have a 50% international clientele. I expect around 40% will be Asian. I believe as well that 4S will appeal more to the local market since it is the best brand (but one is paying dearly for that and even the wealthy or wanna be wealthy will be price concsious.
 
CP=city place.

TCHC=Toronto Community Housing Corp. They're building a ton of rental units down in CP area. Why rent a 500SF CP rental for $1100 when you can get a larger unit at TCHC next door for the same or less money?

WD=West Donlands

LV=Liberty Village (including WQW triangle area across the tracks maybe)

RP=Regent Park. Latest phase (One Park?) is vastly overpriced for the area.
 
Thank you for the clarification.

I never was very keen about City Place. Too much product, too many investors. I say this with no disrespect to those who live there / purchased there. I just personally thought there were better locations in the downtown area to invest in that would be safer as a longer term investment.

Is TCHC subsidized housing and therefore cheaper. I appreciate apartments are less expensive than condos (at least at present).

Curious on your thoughts on LV in particular. I know you feel overpriced at present ( around $460/sq. ft. to 500/sq. ft. range ). Where do you see it going. Under $400 I gather but how much lower, when and for how long?
 
urbandreamer said:
CN Tower--I think you under estimate the power of artists and cheap industrial land revitalizing Hamilton. Look at all the developers launching loft projects in the Hammer--the same way the Toronto condo market launched into today's giant....
Click to expand...

I agree. It is an easy train commute to TO, and prices are 1/3 of Toronto for a detached. I think it is perhaps the best value currently in the greater gta perimeter. If I had to buy, Hamilton is where i would feel the least worried about prices mid to long term
 
interested said:
To clarify Downtown Toronto: Are you saying under $500/sq. ft. for medium range condos now at $600-$700 or a 16 to30% decrease or are you talking about even the mid luxury which is now $650-950/sq. ft.

And what about Luxury now at $1000+ to say 1600/sq. ft. and even higher (penthouses)? I realize it is a guess but how do you see all the interplays working out?

I would note that resale condos in TO are now $400 to 500/sq.ft for mid range so you are I assume anticipating resale to be below $400 and probably closer to $300 or is that a false. I would personally think that resale would not fall as much but the premium asked for new would shrink to perhaps $50/sq. ft. or possibly virtually disappear.
Click to expand...


25-30% decline across the board regardless of product level
 
daveto said:
I agree. It is an easy train commute to TO, and prices are 1/3 of Toronto for a detached. I think it is perhaps the best value currently in the greater gta perimeter. If I had to buy, Hamilton is where i would feel the least worried about prices mid to long term
Click to expand...

You can buy a house in Detroit for $50,000. What's your point?
 
interested said:
Hey, I am one of those want a be wealthy "old farts" you are talking about UD LOL.
I believe that Shangrila will have a 50% international clientele. I expect around 40% will be Asian. I believe as well that 4S will appeal more to the local market since it is the best brand (but one is paying dearly for that and even the wealthy or wanna be wealthy will be price concsious.
Click to expand...

I believe what UD was attempting to say (not to put words in mouth) was that wealthy, local, empty nesters prefer bay/yorkville to university/adelaide. I tend to agree with that thought myself regardless of the very high quality product that the SL is going to deliver.

However, in my opinion, the FS price structure is classic bubble ($1400 psf, are you joking?) when you consider the gorgeous One St. Thomas tower close by at <$1000.
 
CN Tower said:
I believe what UD was attempting to say (not to put words in mouth) was that wealthy, local, empty nesters prefer bay/yorkville to university/adelaide.
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If you were to include word 'snob' to your description, that should correctly describe purchaser of units in Shangri-la.
 
KA1 said:
If you were to include word 'snob' to your description, that should correctly describe purchaser of units in Shangri-la.
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Hey Ka1,
I can't talk about everyone else in Shangrila but personally I am not a snob (at least I don't think so). Besides, why would you say snob for Shangri la and not 4Seasons, Trump, Ritz, and for that matter: all luxury condos such as St. Thomas, the Florian, Museum House etc. unless living in a luxury condo = snob?
 
interested said:
Hey Ka1,
I can't talk about everyone else in Shangrila but personally I am not a snob (at least I don't think so).
Click to expand...

That's your opinion, you have the right to it and, in this democratic country, I fully respect your opinion which, by the way, might not be closer to the reality.
 
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