Australian Public Transport projects & stuff

[tayser]

It's getting interesting! The Federal Labor party (currently in opposition) have just announced they'll fund the Suburban Rail Loop in Melbourne to the tune of $10 billion, piggybacking off the state government (Labor) policy from last year. The Federal election is next Saturday (May 18).

https://www.theage.com.au/federal-e...e-for-suburban-rail-loop-20190511-p51mak.html

It's on top of the $5 billion already promised for the Melbourne Airport Rail Link that will form one-quarter of the SRL and earlier in the election campaign the Labor party said they'll tip $2 billion into the already funded and under construction Metro tunnel project.

Federal Labor really want Melbourne seats, the same way the state government got them in Melbourne's eastern suburbs (blue-ribbon Liberal territory (Lib = centre-right)).

 

[tayser]

The $10 billion is for the first segment which has already been identified by the state government as the one in the south-east - from Cheltenham to Box Hill in the map below. The north-west section (between Sunshine and the airport on the map) is a separately funded project, both sections would start by 2022 (which are state and federal election years, surprise, surprise!).

Red and yellow segments: pretty much all underground. Blue section: mostly surface, some underground segments (plus, most likely another tunnel from the Sunshine to the City), Green section: quadruplicating the recently build Regional Rail Link and electrifying it. It's not clear at this stage if it'll be one linear route or broken up (centred on Sunshine).

The new stations identified on the map are major patronage generators without rail access: Monash is an enormous university campus + employment region that's had planning work done to supercharge density and concentration of jobs (already the second biggest concentration of jobs outside the Melbourne CBD), Burwood = Deakin University campus, not as big as Monash but a decent patronage generator nonetheless. Doncaster: a major suburb (and shopping centre [mall to you guys]) - the only council area in Melbourne (City of Manningham) with no rail - tram or train - access. Bundoora = La Trobe university's massive campus and like Monash has planning work either underway or in place to concentrate jobs around the campus.

There's almost a gaurantee there'll be more stations between Sunshine and Werribee on that map below (because there are two already and this line would take over the job what the Geelong (regional) line already does for outer suburbs).

I'm wondering if the Labor party will in the next few days make announcement about the western Sydney metro to balance the two big cities out (because they have a just-as-ambitious rail building programme for the next few decades as we do!).

 

[steveintoronto]

It's getting interesting! The Federal Labor party (currently in opposition) have just announced they'll fund the Suburban Rail Loop in Melbourne to the tune of $10 billion, piggybacking off the state government (Labor) policy from last year. The Federal election is next Saturday (May 18).

https://www.theage.com.au/federal-e...e-for-suburban-rail-loop-20190511-p51mak.html

It's on top of the $5 billion already promised for the Melbourne Airport Rail Link that will form one-quarter of the SRL and earlier in the election campaign the Labor party said they'll tip $2 billion into the already funded and under construction Metro tunnel project.

Federal Labor really want Melbourne seats, the same way the state government got them in Melbourne's eastern suburbs (blue-ribbon Liberal territory (Lib = centre-right)).

Wow! What a difference to the political reality in Ontario. I'm just reading up on this, and doing some background reading to the fiscal stances of the Libs vs. Labour in general, and if that tracks in a linear way state/national, but what's perhaps foretelling of fortunes here in Ontario is the Oz Feds going to bat to swing this to their own advantage.

I see all the hallmarks of that starting to foment here, albeit not to the overt degree it is in Vic right now.

Incredibly intriguing stuff...

I've got to get more background on this claim as well as the present financing:

Mr Shorten's vow to contribute $10 billion towards the suburban rail loop - a massive tunnel that would link every major rail line in Melbourne as well as the new airport rail link - comes with two caveats: the money will only flow when construction commences in 2021, and it would be spent over 15 years.

"I know it’s a big project, it’s a lot of money, but this is what you can do when you close loopholes for the top end of town and make multinationals pay their fair share," the Labor leader said.

- Link above.

"Multinationals" besides, is this totally 'on the books' of the Gov't(s) ledger, or is this a form of P3, for which Oz has had many?

[...]

NATIONAL PPP POLICY FRAMEWORK
The National PPP Policy and Guidelines provide a consistent framework for the public and private sector to work together to improve infrastructure service delivery. They were prepared and endorsed by Infrastructure Australia and the state, territory and Commonwealth governments. The National PPP Policy and Guidelines apply to all Australian Government, and state and territory government agencies.

PDF versions of the National PPP Policy and Guidelines may be found on the Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development's website.

https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/public-private-partnerships/

Addendum: To allow this to be a template to apply to Ontario's needs (as per the GTHA), it's necessary to 'level the playing field' in terms of how this scheme is to be financed. I've only just started digging, but here's from a gov't website, and immediately flags what Ozzies, (perhaps just Victorians?) expect in the way of P3:

https://www.development.vic.gov.au/...42715/SRL1429-SRL-Factsheet_Day-2_WEB_V18.pdf

I'm in absolute awe of how Oz cities are generations ahead of Ontario (and most of Canada) and in terms of modern, state of the art signalling/control and traction aspects.

Ontario apparently has little choice but to tap the private market to come anywhere close to what Oz now has. And one wonders how Oz can do it, and Canada can't? Similar productivity, standard of living, social liberal values, abundant natural resources...and Ontario is up against a brick wall that only Trump could love. Oz may also be having 'challenges'...but they're generations ahead on commuter rail.

Are there catches?

Does Melbourne's $50-billion suburban rail loop risk eating up 'a generation's worth of spending'?
By James Oaten
Updated 21 Oct 2018, 11:33pm

It was a $50-billion surprise announcement that would shake up Melbourne's train network — an ambitious 90-kilometre-long rail loop linking major commercial, residential and educational hubs in Melbourne's suburbs.

But the project, announced on Facebook in August, was such a surprise that almost no planning experts had even heard of the idea.

It was not on Infrastructure Victoria's to-do list or on the radar of its federal counterpart, Infrastructure Australia.

"First reaction was big surprise," recalled Professor Graham Currie, from Monash University's Public Transport Research Group.

"We need planning … we don't need political announcements."

While Labor's announcement raised eyebrows in planning circles, it was an instant hit with the public.

The phone lines at ABC Radio Melbourne lit up with overwhelming support for the idea.

"Very one-sided," presenter Rafael Epstein recalled.

"I tried to raise questions about process, about planning, about independent people inside government running a ruler over it.

"But it was overwhelmingly just, 'We love this idea'."

PHOTO: The proposed rail loop would allow travellers to move between lines without going via the city loop.


There was another issue few talkback callers discussed: the price tag.

Yet that is exactly the issue commuters should be considering, according to Marion Terrill, who is the transport guru for the Grattan Institute think-tank.

"$50 billion is an incredible sum of money," Ms Terrill said.

"That's $10,000 for every man, woman and child in Melbourne. It's a generation's worth of spending.

"This would be an unbelievably expensive project for Melbourne and push out into the very long-term distance any other kind of transport infrastructure projects that are more pressing."

Many experts anticipate the project may cost even more than $50 billion.

Labor plans to spend $300 million on a business plan just to see how the rail loop stacks up.

It is also hopeful the Federal Government or private sector might chip in.

The Federal Opposition recently pledged $300 million to help start the project, if it wins the next federal election.

"It's really important that the benefits to the community outweigh the costs," Ms Terrill said.

"Otherwise, don't build it.

"Projects that are announced prematurely, and I would argue that this has been announced prematurely, are very prone to cost overruns.

"The average cost overrun is about 25 per cent. It's billions of dollars we're talking about here."

Melbourne's train network is designed to take people in and out of the city.

It does not easily allow commuters to change train lines, unlike the complex spider-web designs of London, Tokyo, or Hong Kong.

The suburban rail loop is intended to change that. [...continues at length...]

(Oz' national broadcaster)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...dollar-rail-loop-planning-questioned/10385702

 

[tayser]

The crux of the current contest between Lib and Lab is that Labor are slowly, but surely, moving away from the compact both parties have held for the past 20-30 years: neoliberal / trickle-down economics. The ALP has never really embraced it fully, but in the 80s/90s it was responsible for many neo-lib reforms. The Liberal party introduced consumption tax (GST) in the 90s and early last decade the John Howard government implemented a lot of reforms that favoured wealthier people / older people.

In short: Labor still embrace market-based solutions, but are getting more in touch with the social democratic routes and proposing to implement a fairly heavy redistribution agenda. The infrastructure part has only come to light today, for the past 3-4 weeks weve been hearing about expanding medicare for pensioners and cancer sufferers, expanding public education spending and the like (with the ultimate 'cost' the federal budget being met through the loophole closing, i.e. redistribution).

side point ---> Labor, by the way, it's ok to spell the Australian political party "Labor" (US spelling) - that's actually what it is, we still use labour for the noun/verb (like Canada/NZ/UK) - they're one of the oldest political parties still around and settled on the US spelling, as it was fashionable in AU at that time, in the early post Federation era (1901-1927), US spelling is no longer fashionable but the ALP kept that spelling, and it's useful for differentiation purposes in text )

I don't remember an election in my adult voting life (I'm 37 and it's mandatory for us to vote in all Local, state and federal elections (age 18)) where we've actually had a very stark choice. Labor are going to the election with policies to remove privileged tax loopholes, franking credit refunds, superannuation reform, removing negative gearing from existing properties (but keeping it for off the plan sales)...

The "make multinationals pay their fair share" ALP line from the article is another area they're saying they'll attack. It's all about companies like Apple/Facebook/Google shifting income earned in Australia offshore through loans to parent companies and the like. Fact is the current Liberal government already started down this path, but the ALP want to take it further (even though it depends on cooperation from other countries).

The ALP has also published their costings for policies earlier than normal (normal a day or two before election day!), you can see it warts and all here: https://www.alp.org.au/media/1878/2019_labor_fiscal_plan.pdf and read more analysis of it here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05...led-surplus-savings-federal-election/11099378

 

[steveintoronto]

Fact is the current Liberal government already started down this path, but the ALP want to take it further (even though it depends on cooperation from other countries).

This was the gist I was looking for, to get a feel of the direction and sentiment of the majority. For the last generation, Oz has been to the right of of most English speaking nations, in some ways tracking the predominant US sentiment.

By your mention of both major parties shifting that direction, it appears to be a popular driven sentiment, as opposed to politics of 'voting against the party in power', which is most likely about to happen here nationally, and already has in many provinces, Ontario actually doing 'self harm/self mutilation' just to spite the previous regime. The way this affects transit building in both nations is going to be interesting. And telling! The next Ontario election will swing back the other way, as a vote against the present regime, and most likely sharing the sentiment gaining inertia in Oz. More on that later.

Quick addition to the "Labor" spelling. There's quite a bit on-line, makes fascinating reading, but a lot is lore it seems. I found an exquisite analysis at the UofSydney and a web-page on Webster.

It appears that it's based on more than just 'fashion of the time'...lessons for other English speakers:
http://blogs.usyd.edu.au/elac/2008/01/webster_in_australia.html

Edit to Add:

[...] But the spelling of the name of the Labor Party is not an isolated case. In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries 'American' spellings were quite widespread in Australia. In Victoria they persisted well into the twentieth century in some quarters. Pam Peters (personal communication) has reported that the Victorian Department of Education endorsed the reformed -or spellings up until the 1970s and the Age newspaper used the reformed spellings up to the end of the 1990s.

- Above link

As an aside on the aside...my first mental cue when I see 'Labor' is 'Libor'...

Libor
Description
The London Inter-bank Offered Rate is an interest-rate average calculated from estimates submitted by the leading banks in London. Each bank estimates what it would be charged were it to borrow from other banks. The resulting rate is usually abbreviated to Libor or LIBOR, or more officially to ICE LIBOR.

Wikipedia

It's a matter of time until Luxembourg or Singapore have a 'Libor Party', and it will lean hard to the right...and take away the independence of the Central Bank.

Late Edit: Just catching up on your links, and it's perhaps a bit too easy to 'see what you want to see' when viewing the lay of the political landscape in other similar nations, but this jumped off the page, as it's the basis of the populism permeating quite a few nations at this time:

[...]
But Mr Bowen will use his party's costings to argue households are paying $18,600 on average each year to fund the tax concessions.

"There is a first- and second-class tax system in Australia," Mr Bowen said.

"If you have access to good advice and your income comes through family trusts, if you have the ability and means to maximise your concessions, then you get first-class treatment.
[...]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05...led-surplus-savings-federal-election/11099378

And I get instant 'deja-vu' from this:

The results suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten are chasing a small minority of undecided voters as they tear through the country's marginal seats, unveiling new spending promises and attack lines over the course of this five-week campaign.
[...]
"The top-five concerns of Australians across the country are cost-of-living pressures, health care and hospitals, open and honest government, climate change and a well-managed economy," Mr Ashton told 7.30.

"Most importantly, they want them solved as a package. They don't want politicians to be picking and choosing."

Mr Ashton said politicians could win back the trust of voters by engaging with 21st century problems and thinking long-term. He said leaders should be more honest with the people about what was possible, and what trade-offs they were making.

Poll reveals 76 per cent of voters picked a side before campaign began

And that brings the Melbourne Rail scheme back full circle to where the discussion started in this string! There's the point you made earlier on the ability of Melbourne to swing the election outcome.

 

[tayser]

Yes, and it's rare that Victoria (or Melbourne to be specific) is in that position.

Queensland is generally the focus, for marginal seat watching, because its population is generally balanced 50% in the capital (Brisbane) and 50% outside of it. Contrast with Melbourne/Vic, Adelaide/SA and Perth/WA where it's usually 80% in the capital, 20% outside of it.

South East Queensland (Brisbane + Gold Coast + Sunshine Coast) is broadly like Sydney/Melbourne in that there's very safe seats for both parties and a handful of marginals that help whichever party to to 76 (now 77) seats for a Parliamentary majority but outside of South east Queensland you have large rural electorates with a few cities around 100,000 (Cairns/Townsville). The fruit cake right wingers are generally north of Brisbane and usually get a lot of attention from both major parties.

Classic case is that Labor are going the whole hog on climate change in NSW/VIC/SA/WA but in QLD they're more tempered because up north they're proposing huge coal mines that might need public investment. Coal mining and running on a climate change-focused policy framework (transitioning to renewables, extending some direct action measures), it's all a bit interesting. It's like the Alberta versus the rest of Canada dynamic.

If 'the swing is on' in Victoria like it was at the state election, the ALP will probably form a government from seat changes here and in WA, maybe one or two seats from Queensland. Queensland, and whether they like Labor much, will determine the size of the win, people are saying.

Likewise NSW has a habit at the state level to vote in independents rather than a) Liberals in the wealthier urban areas or b) Nationals in rural areas (Libs and Nats are in near-permanent coalition as neither is rarely in a position to form government in their own right) and this might switch to the federal soon - so the Libs may lose seats there. (The now-dissolved current government seeking re-election was technically a minority government by the end, so they need to win seats to maintain government/a majority - in a pure numbers game, it's very equal and the choice we have has never been more stark, so yeah, the election result will be interesting).

If you're an election/political junkie, generally the ABC removes its geo-block on the news channel live stream for election result broadcasts. On the flipside, we generally get the CBCs feed through the ABC when Canadian federal elections are on, NZTV's feed on NZ elections, the BBC's feed on UK elections and PBS's feed on US elections, I wonder if the CBC will take ABC feed on your Saturday (early!) morning? The results broadcasts start at 6pm on the east coast, first results usually trickle in about 6:30pm (4am and 4:30am on Saturday morning in Toronto respectively).

 

[steveintoronto]

Coal mining and running on a climate change-focused policy framework (transitioning to renewables, extending some direct action measures), it's all a bit interesting. It's like the Alberta versus the rest of Canada dynamic.

Oil does relate to your coal situation for Alberta vs Qld, albeit BC and Alberta are also coal producers and consumers. (edit: And I've not heard much on the ostensible large oil field found off your west coast of late) But your point of 'campaign messaging' tailored to a region is very apt. I was amazed and encouraged to see "Global Warming" so high in the polling concern nationally. Noticed reference to the Syd Herald, a Fairfax pub, as is the Age. Obviously Murdoch is the main mogul in news inside and out of Oz (The Australian, etc). Needless to say the Wall Street Journal and Fox are his memes, but how is Fairfax considered in terms of slant?

On the flipside, we generally get the CBCs feed through the ABC when Canadian federal elections are on, NZTV's feed on NZ elections, the BBC's feed on UK elections and PBS's feed on US elections, I wonder if the CBC will take ABC feed on your Saturday (early!) morning? The results broadcasts start at 6pm on the east coast, first results usually trickle in about 6:30pm (4am and 4:30am on Saturday morning in Toronto respectively).

I usually don't even watch Cdn or US live coverage. UK coverage is a bit easier to watch, and resolves a lot faster as it's all one time zone, but out of interest, I will check the CBC (I don't have a TV, haven't for a decade) but I suspect it's their news channel that carries it.

Again, I see a very important bellwether in Oz voting trends. In some ways it leads Can, in others it lags. At this point, I think it mostly leads the curve.

 

[tayser]

I saw on the news yesterday (Sunday) that the ALP are going to have another rally in Blacktown in Sydney on Thursday before election day on Saturday. Blacktown is Western Sydney (traditionally a Labor area but more marginal since John Howard era) and if they've ponied up $17billion for Melbourne Public Transport projects, I have a feeling they're going to do something similar in Sydney with its plans for the Western Metro and the Rail Lines to the new Western SYdney Airport.

(to highlight how parties can differ at state and federal level, state libs and labs both understand they're service deliverers and in NSW, its a Liberal/National coalition government that has been responsible for the Sydney Metro and further metro plans - in Victoria it's a Labor state government doing the same thing).

Sydney Metro West on paper looks like it'll be duplicating corridors (it runs roughly in parallel to the major rail corridor shown in those earlier Sydney Penrith-Epping videos) but will be a bit like the Suburban Rail Loop here - focus isn't on maximising stations, it's more about servicing key areas not serviced by existing networks but also keeping stations to a minimum so the services will be faster into the city.

Likewise, a second phase of the initial section (Sydney CBD to Parramatta CBD) would be to extend westward out to the new airport.

https://www.sydneymetro.info/west/project-overview

Western Sydney corridor studies:

All this stuff is a bit like the SRL: not sure if it's going to be the same system as the existing network or if it'll be something like Sydney Metro.

 

[steveintoronto]

@tayser:
Remaining on the comparison of predominant Ozzie environmental sentiment as expressed by polls linked above, and the predominant Cdn one, here's a hugely telling poll:

[...]
“It’s pretty clear that Canadians don’t like the idea of provinces opting out with the exception of Canadians in the Prairie provinces,” pollster Nik Nanos said. “While the carbon tax and the rebate is not a big political winner [for the federal Liberals], people definitely don’t like using provincial tax dollars to fight the federal carbon tax.” [...]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/pol...dians-oppose-provincial-governments-spending/ (non-subscription).

Access the entire article for context and perspective. That has real resonance to Oz, and buttresses the case for Canada's social zeitgeist following the Oz one on at least the topic of environmentalism.

I'll delve into your most recent post above later, it has similarity to the airport (GTAA Pearson Airport) topic here in terms of the airport sitting apart from the transit/transport of the rest of the Greater Toronto Area. The massive difference in the case of Oz is the willingness, if not eagerness, to provide the necessary infrastructure to service same.

 

[steveintoronto]

Kevin Rudd acquits himself well on The Agenda, with Steve Paikin:
Kevin Rudd: The View from Down Under

A number of political questions I've posed in this string are addressed.

 

[tayser]

Ah "Kevin '07" - still smug and going strong. Bless his cotton socks.

 

[steveintoronto]

Ah "Kevin '07" - still smug and going strong. Bless his cotton socks.

Hey Tay, any declared winner yet?

Coalition to claim remarkable victory with Morrison to retain power
The Coalition has defied the polls and pulled of a stunning election win with gains

 

[tayser]

Blergh, the coalition are back. Opinion polling is shite (every poll pointed to a Labor victory - exact opposite happened, every damn poll was wrong).

Projects like SRL will still continue because they're state initiatives (important point from my first post in this thread) - the ALP federally were willing to stump up $10 bil, coailition, meh, state will have to negotiate.

It wasn't a roaring win for the coalition (they "saved the furniture"), but it was disastrous for the ALP (Queensland which is our Alberta went hard against the ALP because Coal jobs & Adani in the north and the white shoe brigade didnt want to lose its negative gearing... plus also general QLD shitfuckery) - we're effectively status quo with one or two seats more for coalition and one or two seats less for the ALP compared to the last parliament! [insert rolling eyes here].

 

[pman]

Mate, I’d take Australia’s status quo over Canada’s any day of the week. You develop massive new energy export projects like Gorgon and bring their output to tidewater. We don’t. Sydney’s public transit is materially better than Toronto’s, and while there’s a lot of complaining, Sydney appears to be able to plan, fund and build major infrastructure on a somewhat rational basis. Toronto, where diversity is of course our strength, is so diverse that we’re incapable of even articulating a collective interest in any of our many fantasy transit projects. And your status quo is materially richer than ours, which is apparent to anyone who spends time in the two countries.

List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

BTW I just received Australian permanent residence, so many thanks to the Commonwealth government. You live in a great country and I’d love to make it my year-round home.

 

[steveintoronto]

Blergh, the coalition are back. Opinion polling is shite (every poll pointed to a Labor victory - exact opposite happened, every damn poll was wrong).

NYTimes, WashPost , UK Guardian and many others are connecting this win to 'Trumpism'. I digress from what I can gather. Shorten's campaign just didn't click for some reason.

Comments?