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5 by-elections called

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#1
It seems to me the 2 Toronto seats (Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Scarborough-Guildwood) are slam-dunk for the Liberals; Kathleen Wynne is pretty popular in the GTA. Windsor West is likely to fall to the NDP (and it would be disastrous for them if they don't take it), Ottawa South should stay Liberal. The real battleground seems to be London West where the Liberals are running Ken Coran and the NDP apparently has a strong candidate. The Tories don't think they can win any of them; that reflects horribly on Hudak's leadership. If he can't win a demographically average "middle Ontario" seat like London West, how can he form a government?
 
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mjl08

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#2
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#3
Giambrone running in Scarborough - Guildwood?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/07/06/adam_giambrone_exmayoral_candidate_to_run_for_ndp_in_byelection.html

It is definitely an odd riding for Giambrone. I always knew a political comeback was in the cards, but not in Scarborough, and not at the provincial level. Especially strange considering the likely federal vacancy in Trinity-Spadina which would seem more attractive for a candidate of his profile.
Yeah I don't get it. He has no ties to Scarborough-Guildwood and the NDP isn't likely to take it. Also, he's going to be stuck with the ONDP's populist posturing on GTHA transit.

Trinity-Spadina when it opens up for a by-election will definitely have a high-profile candidate for the NDP. I think Brian Topp might go for it. Ironically the riding is going to be split in half for the next federal election.
 
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#5
Doesn't sound like Giambrone is off to a good start.
Ouch!

Steve Paikin: interesting thing abt giambrone's signs: no riding mentioned. could use same signs in genl elexn next year. #onpoli

Steve Munro: Giambrone loses my respect for utter lack of leadership and consistency on transit issues. Only important thing to him is votes.
 
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#7

BurlOak

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#9
Today is the day.

I hope Toronto doesn't have to live through the embarassment of electing 2 Liberals, while the rest of the Province smartens up and throws the bums out.
 
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#11
Today is the day.

I hope Toronto doesn't have to live through the embarassment of electing 2 Liberals, while the rest of the Province smartens up and throws the bums out.
As it turns out just 1 of the Toronto ridings stayed Liberal (mine as it so happens).
 

mjl08

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#12
Good night for Horwath. They have exploded in popular support in southwest Ontario ever since that surprise byelection win in Kitchener a couple years ago.
 
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#13
This just in, voters of Etobicoke-Lakeshore throw Doug Holiday out of (municipal) office.
to0802_by_elections_c_mf.jpg


Usually, I find that the party in power loses in by-elections. After the by-election, the party in power will attempt to do "good" to win the general election.
 

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Silence&Motion

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#14
How do we interpret the fact that the Conservatives came in second in 4 (and almost 5) elections? Is that a sign of a ceiling on their support, or of a broad based core of supporters that puts them in a good position for the next general election?
 

BurlOak

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#15
How do we interpret the fact that the Conservatives came in second in 4 (and almost 5) elections? Is that a sign of a ceiling on their support, or of a broad based core of supporters that puts them in a good position for the next general election?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ts-from-ontario-by-elections/article13560878/

If we look at total votes, the PC's win

PC = 54,638 (37.0%)
Lib = 47,213 (31.9%)
NDP = 45,941 (31.1%)

(The percentages are prorated between the 3 major parties only. I think the Greens were in the 3% range in most ridings - showing that they are still an insignificant player)

That the odd thing about our electoral system, the NDP, who got the fewest votes, was the big winner. The Liberals, who lost 3 of 5 comfortable Liberal seats were second, and the PC's were last.

Either Hudak would have to step down immediately and convert the September convention into a leadership convention (this way the new leader would be in place for the fall session), or the PC's stick with Hudak till the next general election. (You can not be without a leader when an election is imminent).

I think there is probably just enough here for Hudak to retain his job.