407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

[crs1026]

Lest someone say it requires a rolling blackout to do the hydro corridor rebuild; let's assume that's not necessary, especially if only one or two pylon corridors are shut down at a time;

The point that I managed to mangle in my post was - the rail right of way is so narrow, you don't need to eliminate the whole Hydro corridor to build the bypass. Quite possibly only one or two of the tower lines would have to be removed to create an appropriate spacing. That greatly reduces the magnitude of the whole problem, setting aside issues of gas lines, fibre optics, or whatever else is up there.

I suspect that if burying transmission cables was economically superior, Hydro One would already be doing it, but the cost/benefit comparison changes considerably if we can leave the 99-year life cycle planning to them and only worry about the immediate cost/logistics of clearing out what the rail line needs.

drum118's concerns are legitimate, and reduces likelihood, increases timecales, but this doesn't cancel the thought experiment.
So here comes the new question.
-- what mitigations are needed to change the mind of a future construction industry minded guy (like drum118) in the future few generations? I'm talking, hypothetically, of course, as a legitimate thought exercise.

Fair question. Thought experiments are worthwhile, but let's remember where we started. A group of elected officials are out of the gates promoting a study with the agenda of getting Metrolinx to promptly change its short to medium term priorities, on the premise that the Milton and Kitchener line projects can be speeded and made cheaper if freight is moved off the lines to a bypass as quickly as one can be built, as opposed to proceeding to qualify and construct mixed freight-passenger corridors as currently planned.

We likely all agree with the theory of a "full-feature" bypass as a viable long term enhancement to the GTA. The question that needs priority is, would a bypass project now (and now including that minimal level of separation needed to protect Hydro, respect 407, and accommodate other utilities) speed the Milton and Kitchener upgrades, and at what cost or savings. Those lines can't be deferred while we flesh out the long term initiative.

- Paul

 

[drum118]

To deal with blackout and this is where the province has shot themselves in the foot on, you need more plants on 3 sides of Toronto.

Today we use less power because of down sizing of industries, but that extra power will be needed in the coming decades to replace the lost industries, more residential and commercial needs, electrifying the GO System and the list goes on. That will require more plants and transmission lines.

By having more plants, you can deal with various issues when part of a system fails for what every reason.

Everything has a life cycle and they all vary in time as well cost.

You want Hydro One to build the lines underground that fine, but who going to pay for it?? All of us.

You can build anything underground, but it comes with a cost to not only to do it, but how to fix or replaces it over time without disrupting other things. Got to think how to fix and rebuilt things on day one.

You have to factor in the what every vent that may occur, regardless if it hasn't happen in sometime or never happen because it only take one case to say why wasn't this done when an event does take place.

I am a long range visionary person as well shot time frame as they both go hand in hand. How do you think various highways got built in the first place right or wrong?

Technology is a fast changing field these days and one only look back as far as 1990 for the Internet to see this. We are only on the tip of changes to come and what will be around 50 years is unknown and will be game changers.

Coming from a construction background, I have seen changes take place that has put various industrious out of business as well cut cost and manpower doing it. It will continue to be refine in the coming decades employing less personnel as well speeding up the construction of X project.

If you want to build this bypass, it has to be done right from day one regardless what there is today. Where does this bypass start as it will set the starting cost point as well time frame to do it.

If this bypass starts in the west around Milton, the cost will be less as well having not as much impact on thing until you got to Mississauga. From Mississauga to the east side of Durham is your problem area as well the high cost to build it. Looking at today cost, you are looking at close to $45 Billion to do it and take 2 decades to do it.

To do this, you need everyone at the table ready to give up something as well kicking in money and that will be the hardies part of the project. Then it will become everyone problem dealing with the construction for 2 decades.

 

[mdrejhon]

A very fair reply, and many questions that will remain unanswered for a long time.

Tech improvements is a good point. Autonomous-capable cars. 50 years from now, once they're widespread, we might legislate cars to always go into Category 4 fully autonomous self-driving mode everytime they enter a freeway such as the 401, 407, etc. To take advantage of freeway-capacity improvements via automatic platooning (safe robo-tailgating...), and eliminate inefficient human-response-time-amplified stop-and-go driving. It might even reduce the need for future 407 widenings. Who knows?

And, 45 billion? Wow. I only guessed 30 billion, I believe your number more. Is that just for 407 Freight Bypass, or the whole project (including hydro solution, activating new commuter corridors, etc, too?). I sure hope that creative solutions are discovered by the study team to bump that cost downwards a bit.

Possibly we'd have to see how popular RER becomes (and maybe HSR, if CN/Brampton lets a high-speed-rated track run parallel to freight trackage), before we are able to judge the benefits of the 407 Freight Bypass. So when the electrified GO system is finally done (with improved frequencies, infill stations, faster speed, and possibly lower fares) become unexpectedly gangbusters popular, and we finally badly need the HSR and we couldn't ram it through Brampton by then, plus with incredibly huge increases in demand decades from now, it improves the business case massively. Some transit projects in the world do massively surpass expectations from time to time, because of unaccounted-for latent demand, etc. But clearly, the business case won't be very clear for very many, many years.

I concede Toronto's got higher priorities. We had a DRL plan more than 100 years ago, and still not built. Sigh.

Either way, this is starting to sound on the scale of London's HS2 project ($120+ billion CDN) or the California High Speed Rail project ($80+ billion CDN). We'd certainly better'd damn sure make sure the business case is damn well worth it, and ALSO throw in Kitchener high speed into the same master plan (at a only a mere few billion extra). And only if our debt is far smaller by then. Let's say... On time for Toronto Olympics 2068 or 2072? (eek!)

Still....bring on the study!! Even if it will be sobering (or not...pass the whisky bottle -- LOL), we'll be better informed and more ready. And maybe creative solutions will appear.

 

[drum118]

The cost is low as there is no way to come up with a true cost until you set down and look at section by section as what can work or what will have to be totally rebuilt.

I am looking at building the thing right and if it means dealing with 1 or all parties so be, but do it right.

A given cost will see the rebuilding of all the overpass or underpass along the current route as well interchanges.

If you do it right, HRS can use this corridor and it may require a 5th track depending on the type of service it going to run. All the tracks should be built to HSR standards with high speed switches since we don't know how goods will be move decades from now.

Based on Europe system, RER will be up there "IF" Metrolinx does thing correctly and not cost cut. It will be a game changer.

As long as the GO Thinker still think in long trains and parking lots, RER will have an up hill battle to change the car cultural. We have already seen what 30 minute service has done and getting it down to 15 will open up another market. Once other lines start to come on line for hourly service all day, it will start the ball rolling. Getting it down to 15 minutes on some routes will have its issues and this is where you need short trains or DMU's.

It comes down to money, the will to do it and getting everyone on board. I don't see it at this time.

 

[mdrejhon]

If you do it right, HSR can use this corridor and it may require a 5th track depending on the type of service it going to run. All the tracks should be built to HSR standards with high speed switches since we don't know how goods will be move decades from now.

High speed freight trains.

(googled).

Wow, they exist already. Moving UPS and FedEx packages during hours when flights aren't allowed, or at slot-limited airports.

(cargo high speed train, in UK, credit, more at www.eurocarex.com)

Both UK and China are researching/even beginning to run them.....wow. China rapidly getting such a dense high speed network (some routes underutilized) and the need to prevent slowing down passenger trains, they want to slot high speed freight trains. The future of goods movement. Hmmm.

 

[drum118]

I will add this since it similar to what been proposed here an I have no info of the area in question.
http://portcitydaily.com/2015/08/19...irst-step-transportation-project-bold-vision/


City Council takes first step in trolley, rail project with ‘bold vision’
By James Mieczkowski on August 19, 2015

PortCityDaily.com is your source for free news and information in the Wilmington area.


Councilwoman Margaret Haynes. Photo by: James Mieczkowski
Council members took the first steps in moving rail tracks across the Cape Fear River on Tuesday with the passage of a resolution allocating over $100,000 to begin a feasibility study for a city transportation project with the instruction it contain a “bold vision.”

According to city spokeswoman Malissa Talbert, the current proposal is for the city, the Wilmington Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization and NC DOT to each contribute $100,000 for the study.

Glenn Harbeck, the city’s director of planning, development and transportation presented the transportation project to City Council members and suggested city council consider accommodating future growth and city-wide development without gridlock. According to Harbeck, relocating a 5-mile rail track to the other side of the Cape Fear River will enable freight trains to have a direct course to the port without going through the center of the city. If this were to happen, modern trolley cars could use the existing track as public transportation for the city, loosening dependence on motor vehicles and the resulting street congestion.

A new trolley system “could allow for 20,000 employees, students, and visitors to come downtown without cars every day,” said Harbeck. “There are about 10,000 housing units and 20,000 persons within one-quarter of a mile of the proposed line today. How many could there be in 25 years?”

City officials expect Wilmington to continue to grow, as well. In fact, by 2040, officials expect 130,000 more people in New Hanover county, with 50,000 alone living within Wilmington city limits.

“Think about where Wilmington was 25 years ago,” said Harbeck. “I-40 had just opened, Hardy Parker Farm would not become Mayfaire for another 14 years and New Hanover County had about 140,000 people. Today there are 220,000. Things change quickly.”

“I think it’s a terrific concept,” said Councilwoman Margaret Haynes. “I certainly think this is a win-win situation all the way around. I just hope this doesn’t take 20 years for this to happen; we need to everyone to work together on this to make it happen sooner.”

Mayor Bill Saffo appointed a railroad task force committee to execute Harbeck’s vision. Laura Padgett, County Commissioner Beth Dawson and Harbeck, among other local officials, are among its members who will “get the ball rolling on the project,” Saffo said. The committee will report to the City Council every six months with progress reports on the project. The Mayor did not give a timeline for the committee.

“This could be huge for the people of this city, and I think people would come from around the country to see how we pulled this off,” said Mayor Bill Saffo.

Related Story: City officials see potential in proposed trolley system for downtown Wilmington

James Mieczkowski is a news reporter for Port City Daily. He can be reached at james.m@portcitydaily.com On Twitter: @mieczkowskiPCD

City of Wilmington, Cottage housing, rail lines, Transit, Trolley system, Wilmington

 

[salsa]

Freight Bypass feasibility study and business case:

 

[rbt]

Freight Bypass feasibility study and business case:

That looks like a hilariously complicated negotiation even before the NIMBYs get involved. Seems worth trying though.

 

[dowlingm]

Relations between Mississauga and Brampton already shaky enough with the LRT, so let's double down... CP/CN/GO train traffic between Milton and the Galt Sub/missing link junction would be pretty heavy.

 

[TOareaFan]

Relations between Mississauga and Brampton already shaky enough with the LRT, so let's double down... CP/CN/GO train traffic between Milton and the Galt Sub/missing link junction would be pretty heavy.

I really do not get the sense that relations between the two cities have been affected by the LRT decision facing Brampton......why would Mississauga care? Province has made it clear that line gets built from PC to Steeles.....north of that is up to Brampton.....how would that bother Mississauga?

 

[salsa]

Relations between Mississauga and Brampton already shaky enough with the LRT, so let's double down... CP/CN/GO train traffic between Milton and the Galt Sub/missing link junction would be pretty heavy.

However both cities would benefit from improved GO service that would be made possible by the freight bypass.

 

[dowlingm]

However both cities would benefit from improved GO service that would be made possible by the freight bypass.

agreed, but lots of people who live near there and don't use GO won't be shy about objecting.

 

[crs1026]

It's a very complicated proposition but doable on a slow-but-steady basis. But yes, the nimby potential does suggest it could go all the way to the Supreme Court. This is more a risk in terms of time than outcome.... there are very controversial EA's being challenged in court at the moment eg Darlington Nuclear refurbishment, Bruce Nuclear Waste project - the court battles are having an impact but the courts have not shut these projects down.....a good EA will withstand legal challenges.
The biggest risk would be someone getting impatient and trying to brute-force the process through some step, thereby giving the opponents a legitimate lever to pull in the courts.
The question would be - can the stakeholderrs along the KW line accept the lengthy process? Or would they rather push ahead and spend money on a shared passenger-freight infrastructure so they get GO, HSR, ettc sooner?
Since upgrades to Milton don't seem to be a priority for MLX, there's less leverage with this route.

- Paul

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

It's a very complicated proposition but doable on a slow-but-steady basis. But yes, the nimby potential does suggest it could go all the way to the Supreme Court. This is more a risk in terms of time than outcome.... there are very controversial EA's being challenged in court at the moment eg Darlington Nuclear refurbishment, Bruce Nuclear Waste project - the court battles are having an impact but the courts have not shut these projects down.....a good EA will withstand legal challenges.
The biggest risk would be someone getting impatient and trying to brute-force the process through some step, thereby giving the opponents a legitimate lever to pull in the courts.
The question would be - can the stakeholderrs along the KW line accept the lengthy process? Or would they rather push ahead and spend money on a shared passenger-freight infrastructure so they get GO, HSR, ettc sooner?
Since upgrades to Milton don't seem to be a priority for MLX, there's less leverage with this route.

- Paul

I think that brute force could show itself in the form of using a federal process to ram it through. Freight railways are federally regulated. Whether or not a federal government partner would want to do such a thing may very well ride on the election.

But what I'm wondering at this point is if CP and CN are on board.

 

[smallspy]

But what I'm wondering at this point is if CP and CN are on board.

At this point - probably not. There doesn't seem much of a carrot with which to draw them to it.

Bt if you give them a really big carrot - say, all operating costs are borne by Metrolinx, all scheduling/dispatching is done through Metrolinx - that may be enough of an incentive to get them to buy-in on their own accord.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.