407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

[drum118]

Your first statement on this was "The maintenance yard will be next to the 407, laving no room for the proposed bypass tracks for CN" in this post in the HuLRT thread from October 18th, so the information I just posted above clarifies that matter.

There is a public feedback opportunity on the 407 Transitway in December. Details here. They are doing a "Public Study" right now before launching the "Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP)". The study area is from Hurontario to the 400 as indicated here.

I did state before about a Dec or Jan PIC.

When I first looked at the plans as per my posting, it was unknown to me nor did it show on the plan that provision was to be allow for the BRT or the bypass. That plan wasn't 30% done nor were staff up to date on it.

I reposted at a later date not in this thread, but the LRT thread new info on the BRT and bypass. I am restating the change to my first posting.

Just because provision is being made for a 4 track bypass, doesn't mean it will be built that way. There is a lot if and unknown, as well where the money is coming from for this thing, as well when this thing will be built. You will be far of better doing the 4 track CP corridor than wait for this thing to happen.

With the change in government coming in 2018, this thing will not be on the radar for at least the mid 2020's come 2018. CP corridor would be up and running by then for All Day service RER.

 

[Allandale25]

When I first looked at the plans as per my posting, it was unknown to me nor did it show on the plan that provision was to be allow for the BRT or the bypass. That plan wasn't 30% done nor were staff up to date on it.

I reposted at a later date not in this thread, but the LRT thread new info on the BRT and bypass. I am restating the change to my first posting.

Yes, I read that second post and I didn't see a reference to your previous post so just wanted to be clear. Also, the first one sounded like a statement of fact rather than a speculative opinion that could change with new information.

Just because provision is being made for a 4 track bypass, doesn't mean it will be built that way. There is a lot if and unknown, as well where the money is coming from for this thing, as well when this thing will be built. You will be far of better doing the 4 track CP corridor than wait for this thing to happen.

With the change in government coming in 2018, this thing will not be on the radar for at least the mid 2020's come 2018. CP corridor would be up and running by then for All Day service RER.

I'm sure it could be faster, easier, and potentially cheaper to upgrade and expand the existing CP Rail line the Milton GO trains use. Of course as we've seen, it would take a level of cooperation we haven't seen so far from CP Rail. Also, as today's Auditor General's report shows, CN and CP continue to have strong influence and control. So either the Province is going to need to be a tougher negotiator, or the Feds will have to step up and intervene as steveintoronto points out they have the power to do.

 

[crs1026]

A-G audits, as sensational as they may be played by the media, tend to operate from known and admitted problems. It wouldn't surprise me if ML made the issue about leverage with CP and CN known to the A-G in the first place. Perfect timing if we want the Bypass and the subsequent acquisitions to be a level negotiation.

My sources tell me that ML has the green light from Treasury and the political level to negotiate with CN, including committing cash. Sounds like this project is moving. If the A-G report leads to a more rigourous costing process, that will make it harder for the PC's to challenge it before the election.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

Excellent points Paul. Thanks for sharing.

A-G audits, as sensational as they may be played by the media, tend to operate from known and admitted problems. It wouldn't surprise me if ML made the issue about leverage with CP and CN known to the A-G in the first place. Perfect timing if we want the Bypass and the subsequent acquisitions to be a level negotiation.

My sources tell me that ML has the green light from Treasury and the political level to negotiate with CN, including committing cash. Sounds like this project is moving. If the A-G report leads to a more rigourous costing process, that will make it harder for the PC's to challenge it before the election.

- Paul

 

[steveintoronto]

My sources tell me that ML has the green light from Treasury and the political level to negotiate with CN, including committing cash. Sounds like this project is moving. If the A-G report leads to a more rigourous costing process, that will make it harder for the PC's to challenge it before the election.

"Sounds like this project is moving." Dare I ask before getting too excited...the Missing Link?

What struck me about the report was that it's old news to anyone who follows these things, for VIA and GO. I too thought it odd that it would somehow be 'news'.

So either the Province is going to need to be a tougher negotiator, or the Feds will have to step up and intervene as steveintoronto points out they have the power to do.

Just read back more intently to see if Paul is talking the Missing Link, and he is.

I don't see the province having a legal 'hammer' big enough to knock this together, even if the funding is there. One way or another, the Feds are going to have to go to bat on this, with the province as partner. The Feds probably won't have to use the legislation they have, just quietly have it hovering over the negotiating parties as 'incentive' to reach reasonable agreements. The Feds really won't want to use it anyway, but like a shotgun at a hillbilly wedding, it gets the job done just be being there. Once the various parties are presented with fair and sensible offers (and the funding will be there, the Feds and QP would be idiots not to make this happen), then all concerned should realize a massive win-win-win-win.

I can't think of any infrastructure investment in this nation at this time for that amount (and odd as it sounds, $5B is small in the big picture) that could/would make such a massive difference in efficiency and throughput....and here's the beauty of this: Pay for itself immediately in allaying investment that would otherwise have to be made if it wasn't done.

With the exception of a few disgruntled parties in York Region (who will get a marked benefit from increased GO service), this will be a glowing vote getter for both the provincial and federal Libs.

Edit to Add: There's also a hidden advantage for Queen's Park in that they are so in over their heads fiscally on committing to projects there's no budget for, that this would give them breathing room by allowing them to state (and it would be correct) "In lieu of committing to Ontario's portion of the Missing Link, we are putting a number of other announced projects on hold to re-examine how we can now do them in much simpler and affordable ways". (Discussion would then itemize some, like the K/W corridor amidst many others, including Crosstown and Milton).

 

[gweed123]

Edit to Add: There's also a hidden advantage for Queen's Park in that they are so in over their heads fiscally on committing to projects there's no budget for, that this would give them breathing room by allowing them to state (and it would be correct) "In lieu of committing to Ontario's portion of the Missing Link, we are putting a number of other announced projects on hold to re-examine how we can now do them in much simpler and affordable ways". (Discussion would then itemize some, like the K/W corridor amidst many others, including Crosstown and Milton).

Yes, the "we've figured out a more cost-effective way to deliver to you the same service we promised" would be a good election drum to beat for the Liberals. And if by some miracle they managed to get CP partially or completely off the Milton corridor, throwing in "oh by the way, Milton is now getting AD2W without investing billions into track upgrades" would really help in Mississauga, which they need to win to have any chance of forming government.

 

[steveintoronto]

Yes, the "we've figured out a more cost-effective way to deliver to you the same service we promised" would be a good election drum to beat for the Liberals. And if by some miracle they managed to get CP partially or completely off the Milton corridor, throwing in "oh by the way, Milton is now getting AD2W without investing billions into track upgrades" would really help in Mississauga, which they need to win to have any chance of forming government.

It would be the 'Silver Bullet' in so many ways. Milton service is just one example of billions saved. I am skeptical of the $5B price tag touted for Missing Link, but even at twice that, it will still pay for itself many times over. (And in all fairness, most of the other route improvements needed w/o The Link will also be more than touted, so the Link is still a winner). And it buys *time* for the Libs, provincial and federal, as they will be able to state honestly that "once this project is well underway, then we can revisit almost all the other massive, expensive projects to cut what's needed, and do more instead" (like Crosstown). The bottom line is they need the pause anyway, as cash is in short supply.

And here's a very telling sign for the Investment Bank: Caisse and DP World partner up for shipping port investments

 

[Allandale25]

Yes, the "we've figured out a more cost-effective way to deliver to you the same service we promised" would be a good election drum to beat for the Liberals. And if by some miracle they managed to get CP partially or completely off the Milton corridor, throwing in "oh by the way, Milton is now getting AD2W without investing billions into track upgrades" would really help in Mississauga, which they need to win to have any chance of forming government.

I don't disagree this could happen but the next provincial election is fast approaching. Either CP Rail has to come back to the table at by then and a deal has to be hammered out, or they will need to show more progress on the next steps on the CN-only bypass that benefits the Kitchener Line. Either way, we're down to the last stretch where stuff can happen. Next election is in 547 days.

 

[gweed123]

Agreed with both of you. CP is a long shot at this point to make an impact on this election, but politically the "we're looking at every option to reduce the bill for taxpayers while keeping our promise" would be a good change of tone for a government that has been up to its eyeballs in accusations (many of them firmly grounded) of wasteful/unnecessary spending.

It just needs to be stressed that they aren't re-evaluating the end goal (RER/AD2W service on all lines), they're just re-evaluating the options when it comes to the infrastructure that needs to be built in order to get there.

 

[Allandale25]

Very brief bypass mention in a report that's on the agenda for this week's Metrolinx Board meeting. Note that they are referring to it as the "bypass" and not the "Missing Link".

 

[steveintoronto]

Very brief bypass mention in a report that's on the agenda for this week's Metrolinx Board meeting. Note that they are referring to it as the "bypass" and not the "Missing Link".

"Missing Link" was only used in the IBI Report and reference to it. The term is euphemistic. Hopefully we'll find out what the 'discussion' is about.

 

[Allandale25]

"Missing Link" was only used in the IBI Report and reference to it. The term is euphemistic. Hopefully we'll find out what the 'discussion' is about.

The term "Missing Link" was used by Metrolinx/the Hurontario LRT project team at their open house on one of their display boards, but I agree that in the other references it's been called a "bypass" or a "new 30 km freight corridor". The display board didn't mention the IBI Report or have very much context. It was just a map to show everything happening/being studied.

 

[mdrejhon]

There's vaguely some modicum of some form of supersetting/subsetting/congruences/commonalities/mutualness between "Freight Bypass" and "Missing Link". Not the exact same thing, but it could be phases in a long term master plan that will someday share corridor (the part where none exist now).

It will be interesting to see how this gels out in 12 to 24 months into something more concrete of a study and possible funding approvals the first two track CN-only connection.

 

[steveintoronto]

Hopefully Allandale or someone who posts here will be at that meeting. Even if they announce a study, as vacuous as that might be, it can buy them time. "Memorandums of Understanding" mean nothing. A study at least indicates an attempt to grasp the issue. On that point, the Feds were compelled under the Railway Relocation and Crossing Act to respond to the IBI report submitted by the municipal consortium.

Anyone know the status of that? Be an excellent question to pose at the ML meeting.

 

[Allandale25]

Hopefully Allandale or someone who posts here will be at that meeting. Even if they announce a study, as vacuous as that might be, it can buy them time. "Memorandums of Understanding" mean nothing. A study at least indicates an attempt to grasp the issue. On that point, the Feds were compelled under the Railway Relocation and Crossing Act to respond to the IBI report submitted by the municipal consortium.

Anyone know the status of that? Be an excellent question to pose at the ML meeting.

Which meeting? The Metrolinx Board meeting? It's live streamed and then on YouTube if you want to see what happens and I won't be there. I doubt the Board will ask staff any questions on the topic so I don't think there will be any new information.

Under what section of the Act is the Federal government forced to respond to the IBI report that was done for a group of municipalities? Did the municipalities send the report to the Federal government and does that trigger the provisions in the Act you're referring to?