407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

[mdrejhon]

A good friend of ours has been working on the project for a couple of years. Feel free to ask him on Saturday.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

So I was right. Behind-the-scenes stuff going on.

So, yes keep tuned, and yes #elxn2018 means "Election 2018".
(The #elxn hashtag prefix is hugely popular by users of Twitter)

 

[EnviroTO]

I think it is good news that they have an agreement in hand with CN. They really need to get the same for CP but even without it building out this rail corridor along the 407 is key to purchasing the line between Brambles and Silver, increasing service significantly on the Kitchener line, a first step to a high speed rail corridor from Pearson to Kitchener south of Guelph, and an enabling step to potentially get CP on board later.

I'm not sure I understand anti Metrolinx sentiment. They do a good job on what they do, they seem professional in their analysis, and the only thing that seems to prevent them from doing a great job is government priorities that they didn't come up with, and funding. Was GO Transit before Metrolinx better somehow that I didn't notice? Was transit planning better? Was execution on plans better? How did I miss it?

 

[mdrejhon]

Was GO Transit before Metrolinx better somehow that I didn't notice? Was transit planning better? Was execution on plans better? How did I miss it?

Nope. IMHO, it wasn't.

GO's clearly getting better much more rapidly under Metrolinx.
Many mistakes, many stumbles, some mitigatable perceived-boondoggles, some perceived-taxpayer waste, but credit where due:

• Lakeshore 30-min all-day 2-way. All the way to Aldershot/Oshawa.
• On-Time guarantee with fare refunds for 15-minute late
• Presto, apparently one the most advanced farecard in the world (very few are Internet-reloadable and Autoload-capable...just try)
• Resumed GO expansions after major GO cuts (early 90s)
• Georgetown Corridor megaproject grade separations
• Union Revitalization and 3x bigger GO concourses. (Okay, it's a mess, but just wait)
• Airport train (UP Express), now finally surpassing projections at >8200/day after recent farecuts
• Half-hourly GO all-day 2-way now planned on several lines in the not-too-distant future
• Finally got GO electrification funded
• Major GO mobility transit hubs under construction (ones on upcoming Crosstown line, upcoming York TTC line, and West Harbour GO)
• Several LRTs funded, with Crosstown under construction

And more. It's night and day.

Certainly many "delayed promisees" (e.g. they originally promised 30-minute all-day 2-way by ~2008 but didn't happen till 2013. And Hamilton all-day service by ~2015 but hasn't happened yet) but it appears more promises (than the usual flipfloppiness) are managing to successfully get "get a construction shovel" even if not delivered on time to a promise.

Despite major flaws and unfortunate spending inefficiencies (Picard shake my head), I see GO is getting better much faster under Metrolinx. They're at least remediating the inefficiencies (e.g. wildly successful UPX airport train fare cut) and seems to be adjusting future plans to reduce earlier mistakes.

Lots of projects survived despite the Ford interference to Transit City. Contrast that to the early 90s fill-in of Eglinton subway and all the cancelled projects of yore -- including ambitious GO Transit of the late 80s and early 90s that were all vaporized in a puff. (Oh, and do we need to mention -- GO ALRT?)

So we definitely do not want to kill the Metrolinx goose. Refine, behave, learn from the UPX mistakes and such, fix them. Metrolinx is barely 10 years old, and many projects take more than 10 years from study to completion. Many eggs are already currently in the oven, waiting to pop out.

 

[crs1026]

That's a pretty substantial list of achievements. (I would give double credit to the Lakeshore 30-minute service accomplishment, because behind the schedule implementation was a long hard capital project to triple track from Scarboro to Aldershot. GO did that project so smoothly that no one really noticed it.) (And I can't bring myself to declare either UPX/GTS or Presto as "successes", for different reasons)

I won't digress into analyzing ML vs GO, except to say that the transition has not gone smoothly. How well it works probably depends on where you sit. A consultant I know who does work for ML/GO told me recently, "There are still two organizations under one roof - GO and ML. And they still hate each other".

If you compare Wynne's bypass announcement with last week's announcement re DRL planning funding - you see the difference that matters here. As Dan alluded, we know that ML has been doing studies and putting paper in the drawer on the bypass for over a year now. How much have we spent already on something that was only a "might happen"? How much money is now committed to the design and approval process? Is there a project plan for this phase? No one will say - leaves one thinking this is still a "might do". Whereas the DRL study got a fairly clear mandate to move forward (and accountability defined to deliver a result).

I was really impressed with the recent RER Business Case document - very thorough, well thought out, put forward all the data and issues to allow a decision to be reached. So good things do happen. But - ML has been pitching RER for five years now, as something they are already delivering. We know of pieces of that puzzle (Davenport, Uxbridge Sub) that are already in gear. Again, how are we spending money when there is no commitment yet? Scope document? Project plan? Budget? So far, RER is all happening ad hoc.

There is such a disconnect between talk and action. I support the bypass, but I have more faith in GO doing some small tweaks (such as triple track in Brampton, and another Credit Bridge span) than in the larger effort.


- Paul

 

[jamincan]

For what it's worth, $2.7 of the $5.3 billion quoted in the report on the Missing Link last fall is costs related to widening the York, Halton and Galt subdivisions. It doesn't break down those costs, but a significant portion of those costs would be related moving CP traffic onto the Halton and York subdivisions which isn't being discussed yet in the announcement. I'm guessing we'll hear news down the road about freeing up the Milton Line as well, though, because the economics become much more favourable in that case, basically $300 million more to remove freight traffic from both the Kitchener and Milton lines versus just widening the existing lines.

 

[mdrejhon]

I was really impressed with the recent RER Business Case document - very thorough, well thought out, put forward all the data and issues to allow a decision to be reached. So good things do happen. But - ML has been pitching RER for five years now, as something they are already delivering.

This is truly one of my most favourite things I've seen so far from Metrolinx, with lots of data mining for railfans for many years to come.

It's a shame that these documents are not always easy to find (guess how hard it is to find the 2011 Niagara ESA Appendix A -- the gem that secretly confirms what's currently under construction means West Harbour is the only all-day-capable station in Hamilton come 2017!) but I really enjoy analyzing these documents.

Now on RER, lots of talk indeed. Earlier, someone posted a graph looked like more than half of $13.5 billion is spent solely in 3 years beginning 2019, with the spending gradually tapering (as EMUs and equipment already purchased, while construction continues to 2024).

I do see the funded GO RER spending spiking super-dramatically in Year 2019 -- the first year of true major electrification construction. This is another reason why very clearly lot of ducks are being lined up for Election 2018.

Seeing shovels beginning 2018-2022 for a major Rail Network Electrification (Electrified GO + bunch'o'LRTs + Electrified VIA in TOM corridor + Caisse Proposal for Montreal + "Higher/Highish Speed Trains") and whatever other areas are going to be doing (e.g. Vancouver, Edmonton-Calgary, etc). Even the Conservatives were supporting a portion of this arithmetic, so at least some of it could survive 2018 (albiet less) -- it will become too firmly entrenched a systemic plan come 2018 for a complete cancellation to occur on all of the respective systems -- so gives multiple electioneering opportunities (2018, 2022, 2026...)

We all know voters in Toronto often don't care about an Ottawa LRT, but many will care if a high-performance (HSR/HPR/HSR Lite) bullety-looking train looks actually set to begin actual construction between all the local and regional electrified systems. Hop on the subway/LRT, hop the fast intercity EMU, and hop on the subway/LRT. Especially if the fast intercity EMU beats the speed of a car by a significant percentage. Kitchener/Waterloo/GTHA/Ottawa/Toronto would have continuous electric connections between & throughout certain rapid transit corridors -- introducing European convenience to Ottawa-Quebec.

Seeing an "actual system" being built and finally seeing the benefits of the first parts introduced (several LRTs, the completed Union Station, TTC York extension, various GO upgrades, and more) may end up being attracted to the allure of a connected European-style electric rail "system".

Connected electrified intercity+regional+local rapid transit, bringing nearly Euro-style convenience. Even numbers that look tiny, 0.5% of people, deciding to go car-free as a result, is still billions of dollars of savings and improves the farebox recovery of related connected systems. The stakes are really high!

And while many people will still keep cars, and still drive, but even many of those drivers also see benefits of fast rail convenience too, especially when it's marketed as "2.5 hour Toronto-Ottawa" with pictures of snubby-nose EMUs that looks highspeedy (even if only 177kph most of the way)

Despite the SmartTrack circus, and all the branding sheninigians, one can also legitimately argue that Tory's been helping cheerlead GO RER onwards, and making it more palatable to the public.

There will be lots of political fighting, you can bet on that. But complete enough of the "in-pipeline" transit projects, and begin enough shovels right now on some of the system projects, and this can tip the scales for 2018.

The question is how this is all going to be marketed in 2018, locally, regionally, provincially, and federally. I expect marketing spins on "High Speed Rail" just to help market the systemic benefits, even if they have to polish it where an Acela-Express-style "tiny fraction" of the track are actually full speed (and that full speed might only be 200kph or 240kph, not 300kph -- the 200kph speed is only a tiny incremental above 177kph and often doable with the same 177kph track for a section where level crossings are removed).

What's important is that the system is sensible, doesn't cost too much (like doing 300kph HSR along the whole corridor), market it as massive cost savings while still being twice as fast as car, and a lot of electorate along the Corridor can be won. "Look, this system costs only $X billion rather than $XX billion, and it is twice as fast as driving!" but explained in simpler terms... They have to figure out how to brand this (without the Tory "SmartTrack" branding slapped on what Metrolinx calls "GO RER").

Aside: VIA's YDS would have to also fall in line if Feds say they want to see a bullety-looking train and a small 30km section of brief 200kph rail on the VIA 177kph network, just to be able to market "High Speed Train!" (who knows -- maybe for only maybe $200M extra on top of the VIA quote?) and market it as being superior to Acela Express to satisfy the public it's truly deserved to be called a High Speed Train. This is sort of what Acela Express is -- even today's VIA network outperforms some Acela Express routes.

 

[robmausser]

How would HSR fit in with that though?

I feel like HSR makes a case for first adding track to the current corridors like Drum118 has stated, and then the "missing link" further down the road.

The expanded trackage on the corridors could then be upgraded to HSR once the missing link is implemented.

In other words expanding the trackage in the existing corridors creates a rough-in for HSR later down the road, when the missing link is implemented and track that was used for freight can now be replaced with track to HSR.

 

[dowlingm]

I'm pretty shocked that this is actually happening*, but if we're seriously gonna be building new rail then I'd like to pitch an Outer Bypass line through Beacon Hall Golf Club to facilitate movements of trains between CN Bala and Metrolinx Barrie line. It's only 7km...

* notwithstanding that Bill Davis hasn't yet emerged to kill it like the LRT

 

[Allandale25]

Which Missing Link report are you referring to and where is the $2.7B figure.

For what it's worth, $2.7 of the $5.3 billion quoted in the report on the Missing Link last fall is costs related to widening the York, Halton and Galt subdivisions. It doesn't break down those costs, but a significant portion of those costs would be related moving CP traffic onto the Halton and York subdivisions which isn't being discussed yet in the announcement. I'm guessing we'll hear news down the road about freeing up the Milton Line as well, though, because the economics become much more favourable in that case, basically $300 million more to remove freight traffic from both the Kitchener and Milton lines versus just widening the existing lines.

 

[Allandale25]

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the question of CN's corporate communications twitter account being an "official" source and their interest in a new rail bypass when they retweet tweets with those very words. To each their own. Lots of companies make official statements or endorsements on twitter now. It's 2016.

Weasel words? That's funny.

If the government, CN, and local elected officials along the line want the bypass and more GO service open operating by 2024, you won't want to wait long to see a Request for Proposals (RFP) posted and a list of consultation meeting dates. There is an existing EA between the airport rail spur and Bramalea, so I assume that the EA study area will either be extended, or a new RFP will be issued for Bramalea to Kitchener.

A tweet isn't a news release, and those are nothing but decoration on a cake, the recipe of which is completely unknown. Pardon me if I'm of the older generation and like to see things in writing.
I'm a *huge* supporter of the "Missing Link". So are many of the other skeptics. Just read back on what I've written, and ditto for Paul. We were both excited at the mention of the announcement, and both on record here of being so. How could you possibly have missed that? It was all of...well...a day ago, to be exact.

But like some others, I got caught up in the wild enthusiasm...until my sixth sense kicked in. Sorry...but slick weasel words don't work on me.

Show me the money, or show me something in writing. And tweets don't count. Would you do your banking by tweeting?

 

[steveintoronto]

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the question of CN's corporate communications twitter account being an "official" source and their interest in a new rail bypass when they retweet tweets with those very words.

It's an odd thing, Allandale. Any company that has something official to announce will put it up in print shortly after tweeting the "announcement to be posted". The tweet in itself is not an official announcement, except for those who think Twitter is the word of God.

If the government, CN, and local elected officials along the line want the bypass and more GO service open operating by 2024, you won't want to wait long to see a Request for Proposals (RFP) posted and a list of consultation meeting dates. There is an existing EA between the airport rail spur and Bramalea, so I assume that the EA study area will either be extended, or a new RFP will be issued for Bramalea to Kitchener.

Really? You mean like all the previous announcements not been kept?

[...]
Wellington-Halton Hills MPP Tedd Arnott, a veteran Progressive Conservative at Queen’s Park, seized on this in his response to the government’s announcement. “Even with today’s announcement, the government still didn’t provide a firm time frame in its news release,” he said Tuesday afternoon.

The doubling of GO trains this September will be appreciated by commuters in his riding, Arnott said in a news release. “However, this announcement still falls far short of the all-day, two-way service the Liberals promised during the last election.”

Catherine Fife, the MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo and the NDP’s finance critic, zeroed in on uncertainties related to the province’s deal with CN.

“While today’s agreement-in-principle helps, without a funding commitment for a bypass that will cost billions, without a proposed route, without an environmental assessment, without a commitment from the federal government, there is little reason to believe that the Premier’s promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2024 is any more solid than the previous promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2019,” Fife said in a news release.
[...]

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-s...-door-for-two-way-all-day-go-service-by-2024/

Produce one official news-release that details the terms of any of this. Tweets might work for you, they don't don't for business, law and believability. If this is all so real, then post a reference. Tweets don't count in the real world. Nice fantasy though.

so I assume that the EA study area will either be extended, or a new RFP will be issued for Bramalea to Kitchener.

I've got some swamp land excellent for running a railroad on in Florida. Sell it to you cheap, real cheap. Bring cash, small bills.

FIFE: Announcement a start, but more connectivity needed for Waterloo Region
WATERLOO – Catherine Fife, MPP Kitchener-Waterloo and NDP Finance Critic, welcomes today’s announcement by the provincial government about increased GO service.

“I am pleased that the provincial government is keeping its promise from 2009 for four GO trains in the morning and the evening to Kitchener,” said Fife. “It’s been a long time coming.”

Improved transit options between Toronto and Waterloo Region are necessary. Estimates suggest at least 15,000 people commute to work every day in Waterloo Region.

“The key is connectivity – getting people to their jobs in Kitchener-Waterloo in the morning and home again,” said. Fife. “To do that, Waterloo Region needs two-way GO service. While today’s agreement-in-principle helps, without a funding commitment for a bypass that will cost billions, without a proposed route, without an environmental assessment, without a commitment from the federal government, there is little reason to believe that the Premier’s promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2024 is any more solid that the previous promise to deliver all-day, two-way GO rail by 2019.”

In May 2014, the Minister of Transportation promised two-way, all-day GO service between Kitchener and Toronto within five years.

Posted on June 14, 2016.

http://catherinefife.com/fife-announcement-a-start-but-more-connectivity-needed-for-waterloo-region/

 

[Allandale25]

I'll happily post the RFP and any study details when they are available - in 2016 or in future years. I never claimed they are currently available. I look forward to seeing them. I'm sorry I don't share your cynical outlook.

If the government never starts the study or CN backs out, or a different government in 2018 sets other priorities, or if they back down from the service level announced this week,

I'll post that as well so that you can reply with "I told you so" and continue the fun you have making the types of remarks you do.

I can tell you enjoy it.

Produce one official news-release that details the terms of any of this. Tweets might work for you, they don't don't for business, law and believability. If this is all so real, then post a reference. Tweets don't count in the real world. Nice fantasy though.

I've got some swamp land excellent for running a railroad on in Florida. Sell it to you cheap, real cheap. Bring cash, small bills.

 

[mdrejhon]

stevetoronto,

Wall Street Journal on SEC regulations on Twitter accounts for Breaking News situatons:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323611604578398862292997352

As a stock market investor sometimes in my RRSP, I would have to call you out here. I've seen stocks move because of Twitter quotes for shareholder-sensitive items that are currently too preliminary to go into a full-fledged news release. This is 21st century.

As a day job, I work as a stock market mobile application developer.... so without further ado:

I can name many, many, many, many, examples. A now very famous 21st century example is Elon Musk where breaking news relating to SpaceX and Tesla was announced on Twitter, that is not even in any press releases. Hundreds of lesser examples apply, but suffice to say.

Far, far, far more casual quotes than CN has been breaking news. Look at Elon Musk. For example, his his curt "of course" reply to a customer asking if Model 3 Tesla electric car will have Ludricious mode (0-to-60 supercar acceleration mode) -- there is no news release that mentions this -- and this reply caused the stock to move immediately. It is now legalized by SEC to break news on Twitter -- as long as investors know where to look (e.g. linked from the company websites). See these FORTUNE.COM and WSJ.COM articles about this stuff.

Newswires will be for big news, but for mini news tidbits, social media, including Twitter, is now a valid and legal place to break stock-price-changing news.

Sometimes it's about a feature that potentially allows a $30,000 electric car to actually compete with a $300,000 Ferrari or even a Bugatti in a dragstrip situation. That rattles stock prices rather quickly.

It's legal now.

Your honour, I rest my case.

 

[Allandale25]

From CN's own website and how they describe twitter:

Twitter
If you don’t already use Twitter you may be surprised just how much information can fit into a single 140-character update (a “Tweet”). Follow us on Twitter for the latest CN-related information including updates on new products and services, photos and videos from live events, financial updates, pictures from the field and much more!

Tweets from [@]CN_Comm (Public Relations & Media)

Produce one official news-release that details the terms of any of this. Tweets might work for you, they don't don't for business, law and believability. If this is all so real, then post a reference. Tweets don't count in the real world. Nice fantasy though.

 

[steveintoronto]

See these FORTUNE.COM and WSJ.COM articles about this stuff.

to broadcast market-moving corporate news.

"News" is not a contract.
So would announcing your marriage by Twitter make it legal? How about announcing you're going to buy someone's house? Announcing a death?

Look, when I see an MOU in writing, then I'll start to believe Wynne et al. Even an MOU is not binding, albeit it does give grounds to sue if work and investment occurs on the basis of due consideration to what was agreed. A court would have to gauge that.

A memorandum of understanding (MOU or MoU) is a formal agreement between two or more parties. Companies and organizations can use MOUs to establish official partnerships. MOUs are not legally binding but they carry a degree of seriousness and mutual respect, stronger than a gentlemen's agreement.

Here's what "Agreement in Principle" means:

Agreement in Principle Definition:
An agreement as to the terms of some future contract.

Related Terms: Contract


Also approval in principle.

An oxymoron as an agreement in principle is no agreement at all.

To bind the parties, a contract must be concluded in all its fundamental terms, with nothing left to negotiate. Halsbury's Laws of England, Volume 9(1), "Contracts":[...]

http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/A/AgreementinPrinciple.aspx

Some people believe anything...