2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[concrete_and_light]

People give the candidates a lot of shit (myself included) and to a large extent they deserve it. And while I do feel kind of in despair about the state of the city and our public representation and discourse, the possibility of either Chow, Bailão, or maybe Matlow as likely mayor is I have to admit a nice improvement and relief over the hell of the Ford/Smitherman and Ford/Tory strategic choices and then the years of indefinite Tory hegemony.

 

[Eug]

I know very little about Toronto politics, but I'll give my 2¢ as an ill-informed outsider anyway. I feel it's not unreasonable to weigh in this way, as probably most voters are even more ill-informed than me, unfortunately.

I'm thinking Josh Matlow is unlikely to gain much traction going forward. This on the surface at least seems to me like a Chow vs. Bailao race, with Chow getting Toronto Downtown support while opposing the move of the Ontario Science Centre, and Bailao getting more even support across the city while supporting the move of the Ontario Science Centre.

I must admit I was initially a little surprised Bailao got the support of some unions over Chow, but then again it might have to do practicality and optics. Bailao is centrist (or perhaps slightly left) but maybe has a perceived advantage to negotiate with both the right and left, something that may play well in places like Scarborough and Etobicoke. OTOH, Chow is just firmly left, and with a strong Downtown bent. Chow got the endorsement of Gil Penalosa, but I'd say that the vast, vast majority of Torontonians don't know who he is, and don't care either. And having the support of Kristyn Wong-Tam won't help getting those inner burb voters who are centre or centre-right leaning.

BTW, I have no idea if this post is flame-worthy or not, but it's just how the situation looked to me as of today.

P.S. Off topic but I liked Queenmaker on Netflix. It gets ridiculous at times, but I found it quite entertaining nonetheless. It's a Korean TV series about a fictional Seoul mayoral by-election, featuring a very left woman as the underdog protagonist.

 

[christiesplits]

I'm curious to see how much momentum Anthony Furey can build. Getting an endorsement from Jordan Peterson is political poison for most voters, but it will certainly get him headlines.

Last night he hosted a ticketed fundraiser at the swanky Albany Club, hosted by a VP at Shopify.

I've been told Brad Bradford is also hosting fundraisers with tech honchos.

 

[Eug]

I'm curious to see how much momentum Anthony Furey can build. Getting an endorsement from Jordan Peterson is political poison for most voters, but it will certainly get him headlines.

Last night he hosted a ticketed fundraiser at the swanky Albany Club, hosted by a VP at Shopify.

If he polls above 5% in the coming weeks, I'll be shocked.

 

[rbt]

Every time I turn on CP24, there seems to be something about Anthony Furey. Is he the only candidate they've decided to cover?

Not a surprise that a life-long journalist has a few connections in the media.

 

[DSC]

People give the candidates a lot of shit (myself included) and to a large extent they deserve it. And while I do feel kind of in despair about the state of the city and our public representation and discourse, the possibility of either Chow, Bailão, or maybe Matlow as likely mayor is I have to admit a nice improvement and relief over the hell of the Ford/Smitherman and Ford/Tory strategic choices and then the years of indefinite Tory hegemony.

Though we may both want a 'progressive' mayor (and Chow, Bailao and Matlow fit that general category), there is a real risk that with potential vote splitting and ca 50 candidates we will end up with someone like the ghastly Saunders (who ran the TPS very poorly) or Furey. Progressives need to look VERY carefully at the situation as election day gets closer, avoid splitting the vote and support ONE candidate. Who that is, I do not yet know but ...

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Another solid endorsement for Ana Bailao.

 

[adma]

Not a surprise that a life-long journalist has a few connections in the media.

Or more particularly, "eyeball media"--that is, the symbiosis btw/CP24-type networks and the Sun-style tabloid approach (which helped drive Ford Nation).

Furey still seems like a novelty, though; like the "libertarian think tank class" in the Maxime Bernier camp in '19 (as opposed to '21)

 

[adma]

Though we may both want a 'progressive' mayor (and Chow, Bailao and Matlow fit that general category), there is a real risk that with potential vote splitting and ca 50 candidates we will end up with someone like the ghastly Saunders (who ran the TPS very poorly) or Furey. Progressives need to look VERY carefully at the situation as election day gets closer, avoid splitting the vote and support ONE candidate. Who that is, I do not yet know but ...

Strategically speaking, though, it might be useful to delete Bailao from "that general category"--not so much out of fauxgressive concerns from the left, as out of consideration for how Nick Kouvalis is working to make her "palatable" to the so-called non-progressive. IOW she might already be the best weapon against a Saunders/Furey mayoralty. (Even her union support makes her seem less a "scary left" candidate than a "candidate of the little guy"--not unlike a Doug Ford/Monte McNaughton strategy, or that of Erin O'Toole federally in '21. And unlike Ford or O'Toole, lacking a "scary right" stigma as well.)

 

[christiesplits]

A new Forum poll that has Chow way ahead.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652551738044325888

 

[Northern Light]

A new Forum poll that has Chow way ahead.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652551738044325888

I find that weird. My statement should not be read as pro or anti here........

Rather, she's showing material traction, seemingly, but she isn't getting a lot of media hits, of any kind, never mind positive, I've heard nothing from her campaign thus far, where as I've had stuff from Matlow under the door, I've been auto-dialed by Hunter, and Bradford.

Where is this seeming momentum coming from if her campaign isn't putting stuff under doors, isn't auto-dialing, she isn't getting media hits let alone plaudits.......

 

[PinkLucy]

And of course voter turnout will be a major factor.

 

[christiesplits]

I find that weird. My statement should not be read as pro or anti here........

Rather, she's showing material traction, seemingly, but she isn't getting a lot of media hits, of any kind, never mind positive, I've heard nothing from her campaign thus far, where as I've had stuff from Matlow under the door, I've been auto-dialed by Hunter, and Bradford.

Where is this seeming momentum coming from if her campaign isn't putting stuff under doors, isn't auto-dialing, she isn't getting media hits let alone plaudits.......

Assuming Chow had some of her softer votes peeled away to Tory with the "Anyone But Ford" effect in 2014, maybe 1/3 of the voter base is her natural area of popularity?

I'm surprised too, given that her campaign has been fairly quiet so far. I'm especially surprised by the low Bailao figure, as her team seems to be the most well-organized and is racking up a lot of endorsements.

It's still quite early. Lots can change!

 

[Fresco]

And of course voter turnout will be a major factor

You dont have to turnout with the new QR code voting cards,
All you gotta do is turn on your smartphone

 

[W. K. Lis]

You dont have to turnout with the new QR code voting cards,
All you gotta do is turn on your smartphone

Not so with the computer-illiterates.

Also "Forty-eight per cent of Canadian adults have inadequate literacy skills"—a significant increase from a decade ago (2002). From link.