2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[Northern Light]

Interestingly enough, though, her vote share is consistent with polling.

Chow's share is in the ballpark, but Bailao is overshooting substantially.

So it would appear she did become the anybody but Chow candidate. She's showing what, 10 points over who her best poll?

 

[adma]

Is this the closest Toronto mayoral election ever??

I'm trying to think back, but I cant remember one being this close

Art Eggleton won by less than a point over John Sewell in '80.

 

[afransen]

Somewhat reassuring that the right wing loonies are well-underperforming.

 

[adma]

Interestingly enough, though, her vote share is consistent with polling.

Yeah, I'm hearing CP24 pundits talking about Olivia "falling short"--she *didn't*, really; it's just that Bailao "fell long"...

 

[adma]

Art Eggleton won by less than a point over John Sewell in '80.

And now the OliviAna margin's verging on 5 points--which isn't much below Miller vs Tory in '03 (and because their respective shares are lower than those of Miller & Tory, it practically sizes up the same)

 

[Jonny5]

Global News has called a Chow win.

 

[GenerationW]

Global News has called a Chow win.

As did CP24.

 

[allengeorge]

 

[allengeorge]

Chow's share is in the ballpark, but Bailao is overshooting substantially.

So it would appear she did become the anybody but Chow candidate. She's showing what, 10 points over who her best poll?

So far she’s almost spot-on Mainstreet’s last poll.

 

[allengeorge]

I will say one thing: I am glad that Ford’s election interference and his endorsement have been worth s*** all.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Congrats Olivia. I voted for Ford and he was a drug addicted, at-home castor canadensis eating disaster. I voted for Tory and at best he was a status quo, obstructionist placeholder and philanderer. This time, I voted for you. Let’s hope I’ve done a better job this time.

 

[toaster29]

So we all thought Mainstreet was off.. but they were actually spot on? Why were we so certain they were overestimating Ana?

 

[adma]

So we all thought Mainstreet was off.. but they were actually spot on? Why were we so certain they were overestimating Ana?

(1) because all the other pollsters were underpolling her
(2) because that was before the critical John Tory endorsement
(3) because push polling and strategic finagling to make a certain desired result happen, works. Thanks, Mr. Kouvalis; now, as I was braced for, Team AnaQuito can claim "moral victory"...

 

[Fresco]

If Chow can change the city for the better I'll support her.
But if Toronto remains unchanged (or gets worse) I hope she's a 1-termer

 

[afransen]

So we all thought Mainstreet was off.. but they were actually spot on? Why were we so certain they were overestimating Ana?

I suspect Mainstreet were actually overestimating her based on preferences, but that she benefitted from some strategic voting.