2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

[Towered]

Oh! Now I want to know who will be the new Ernie Eves?

Lecce, smarminess embodied.

 

[Richard White]

Lecce, smarminess embodied.

Hopefully he will have more common sense than eves did.

I still remember when he told people not to BBQ after the blackout because it put an undue burden on the fire department. It was not until someone told him it would increase strain on the grid if everyone used their stove, oven and bought take out that he retracted that statement.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Oh! Now I want to know who will be the new Ernie Eves?

Roman Baber?

Join Roman - Sign Up Now

www.joinroman.ca

 

[kEiThZ]

I have a feeling Doug isn't doing as well as polls are predicting. The selection bias of phone calls alone mean a lot of younger voters aren't getting counted. Who the hell under 50 answers a call from someone not in their contacts, let alone if you're under 30 and voice calls are a "quaint" feature on a device used for almost anything but. And the self-selection bias of online polling almost always favours angry conservatives.

People say this kind of stuff every single election. And for the most part, most pollsters are within the margin of error, on election day.

 

[John_Dee]

Horwath is utterly stale at this point, and Del Duca has all the charisma of a toadstool.

I had lunch with a friend the other day, and he referred to Horwath as "the Invisible Woman." And indeed, she's been weirdly absent from any kind of spotlight you'd expect to be shining on the leader of the Official Opposition, especially one who's up against someone as, er, 'colorful' as Dofo. I get that there's an institutionalized bias against the left in our media, but doesn't that mean that the responsibility to make a real impression with the public laid directly with Horwath and that she completely failed at it? Maybe that's not fair, but the situation is what it is. Fairness doesn't come into it. As near as I can tell, she's been utterly useless, and it doesn't help that she's about as charismatic as a limp strand of spaghetti.

And then there's Del Duca, who's a walking sack of suet. Not to be too nasty about it - well, not much (heh, heh) - but the Libs must have been crazy to appoint such a gormless dud as their leader. What were they thinking?

 

[Towered]

I had lunch with a friend the other day, and he referred to Horwath as "the Invisible Woman." And indeed, she's been weirdly absent from any kind of spotlight you'd expect to be shining on the leader of the Official Opposition, especially one who's up against someone as, er, 'colorful' as Dofo. I get that there's an institutionalized bias against the left in our media, but doesn't that mean that the responsibility to make a real impression with the public laid directly with Horwath and that she completely failed at it? Maybe that's not fair, but the situation is what it is. Fairness doesn't come into it. As near as I can tell, she's been utterly useless, and it doesn't help that she's about as charismatic as a limp strand of spaghetti.

And then there's Del Duca, who's a walking sack of suet. Not to be too nasty about it - well, not much (heh, heh) - but the Libs must have been crazy to appoint such a gormless dud as their leader. What were they thinking?

Wow, I thought I was moderately harsh towards Del Duca, but you just upped it! Extra brownie points for the rare use of "suet" and "gormless". English can be devastatingly expressive when one utilizes its many tools for increased effect!

 

[Richard White]

Wow, I thought I was moderately harsh towards Del Duca, but you just upped it! Extra brownie points for the rare use of "suet" and "gormless". English can be devastatingly expressive when one utilizes its many tools for increased effect!

No matter what words you use, Andrea and Del Duca are gorked if DoFo wins a majority,.

 

[Northern Light]

And then there's Del Duca, who's a walking sack of suet. Not to be too nasty about it - well, not much (heh, heh) - but the Libs must have been crazy to appoint such a gormless dud as their leader. What were they thinking?

Thinking has very little to do w/who wins a party leadership.

Ability to organize, fundraise and sell memberships has a great deal more to do with it; and Del Duca ran circles around the other contenders. To be clear........I don't think he was the right choice, particularly if the Liberals were intending to contend for power in this election.

But under the current rules that's who they got just the same; I'd add, I'm not sure the power structure of the party was concerned w/contending in this election vs paying off the party's debt, replenishing its coffers and rebuilding for future contention; in that case, based on their finances and their polling, he may have done what was needed.

The power structure of parties rarely explicitly choose a leader, but they certainly have their thumbs on the scales when it comes to setting rules and deadlines for leadership contests.

 

[DirectionNorth]

Wow, I thought I was moderately harsh towards Del Duca, but you just upped it! Extra brownie points for the rare use of "suet" and "gormless". English can be devastatingly expressive when one utilizes its many tools for increased effect!

I did a bit of asking around; nobody could tell me the name of the Liberal leader (I heard lots of "Steven who?")

 

[Northern Light]

I have a feeling Doug isn't doing as well as polls are predicting. The selection bias of phone calls alone mean a lot of younger voters aren't getting counted. Who the hell under 50 answers a call from someone not in their contacts, let alone if you're under 30 and voice calls are a "quaint" feature on a device used for almost anything but. And the self-selection bias of online polling almost always favours angry conservatives.

I think Doug may win with a minority, and if so I hope the NDP and Liberals take a cue from their Federal counterparts.

While I certainly hope that the above is true; and I have posted outlier polls that suggest it may be.............

I think its important to note that pollsters are fully aware of selection bias, and virtually all pollsters today post 'weighted' results.

So when they ask you to indicate are you male/female and your age............they use that to weight certain results in order to make their published results more demographically representative. A fair number of pollsters also do
online polls and panels now.

 

[zang]

Some wishful thinking in this thread.

People say this kind of stuff every single election. And for the most part, most pollsters are within the margin of error, on election day.

And I have legitimate reasons to believe that Douggie the Label Guy (Git R Done!)'s strength is being overstated.

1) In the past four years we've seen a large cohort reach voting age and the voter turnout of 18-24 year olds has been steadily rising. In the 2021 federal election their turnout surpassed the general population. This is a group that are largely progressive, and concerned with things like Mental Health, Climate change and DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion). All things Doug seems to veer away from as much as humanly (sluggily?) possible.

2) We've had several right-wing protests directed *at* Doug Ford (Queens Park any given Saturday for the past year), and we've seen the Ontario Party get traction and an entirely new right-wing New Blue Party show up. These two parties are getting lumped in with "other" in polls, but account for quite a bit of that group, who will ultimately siphon votes away from Ford. Many people who once supported Ford have moved further right. "Other" accounts for nearly 10% of the polls in Southwestern Ontario.

3) Polls have gotten less reliable, but nobody hires a pollster to be wishy-washy. The final polls before the 2018 election gave the NDP a 4% bigger share of the vote than they actually achieved. A ±4% "margin of error" is damn near the difference between Premier Doug Ford and Premier Andrea Horwath, FFS.

Even anecdotally, I grew up in Dufferin-Caledon, which has been a consistent conservative stronghold for almost my entire life. Hell, I went to school with David Tilson's son. I've been hearing growing rumblings of discontent with the PCs over the past couple of years and both the New Blue and Ontario Party have a presence there that could easily peel away enough votes to give the Liberals an edge. The Liberals weren't that far away from taking it in just 2014.

I even know a legacy PC voter ("it's what we've always voted for in my family") turn Anyone-but-Ford. Again, anecdote, but where there's smoke…

I don't believe the NDP or Liberals are strong enough to win the whole shebang, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that a second Ford majority is not a foregone conclusion.

 

[old boy]

And I have legitimate reasons to believe that Douggie the Label Guy (Git R Done!)'s strength is being overstated.

1) In the past four years we've seen a large cohort reach voting age and the voter turnout of 18-24 year olds has been steadily rising. In the 2021 federal election their turnout surpassed the general population. This is a group that are largely progressive, and concerned with things like Mental Health, Climate change and DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion). All things Doug seems to veer away from as much as humanly (sluggily?) possible.

2) We've had several right-wing protests directed *at* Doug Ford (Queens Park any given Saturday for the past year), and we've seen the Ontario Party get traction and an entirely new right-wing New Blue Party show up. These two parties are getting lumped in with "other" in polls, but account for quite a bit of that group, who will ultimately siphon votes away from Ford. Many people who once supported Ford have moved further right. "Other" accounts for nearly 10% of the polls in Southwestern Ontario.

3) Polls have gotten less reliable, but nobody hires a pollster to be wishy-washy. The final polls before the 2018 election gave the NDP a 4% bigger share of the vote than they actually achieved. A ±4% "margin of error" is damn near the difference between Premier Doug Ford and Premier Andrea Horwath, FFS.

Even anecdotally, I grew up in Dufferin-Caledon, which has been a consistent conservative stronghold for almost my entire life. Hell, I went to school with David Tilson's son. I've been hearing growing rumblings of discontent with the PCs over the past couple of years and both the New Blue and Ontario Party have a presence there that could easily peel away enough votes to give the Liberals an edge. The Liberals weren't that far away from taking it in just 2014.

I even know a legacy PC voter ("it's what we've always voted for in my family") turn Anyone-but-Ford. Again, anecdote, but where there's smoke…

I don't believe the NDP or Liberals are strong enough to win the whole shebang, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that a second Ford majority is not a foregone conclusion.

If only.
I've spoken with life-long, " intelligent" Conservatives who agree with all the evident shortcomings of the Ford cabal, yet still support the PCs... reminds me a bit of the Trump apologists who said there are a lot of nice people who support him. Give him a chance and he will grow into the Presidency.
See how that worked out.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And then there's Del Duca, who's a walking sack of suet. Not to be too nasty about it - well, not much (heh, heh) - but the Libs must have been crazy to appoint such a gormless dud as their leader. What were they thinking?

The LPC did the same before Trudeau, putting forth Dion and Ignatieff as gormless leaders before a final placeholder with Rae. My point is that Del Duca is a fall guy, put some loser forward to take the hit in an unwinnable election, then toss him out and get a new one, making incremental gains each election until your true saviour arrives to win majority in 2030.

 

[zang]

If only.
I've spoken with life-long, " intelligent" Conservatives who agree with all the evident shortcomings of the Ford cabal, yet still support the PCs... reminds me a bit of the Trump apologists who said there are a lot of nice people who support him. Give him a chance and he will grow into the Presidency.
See how that worked out.

in 2016 or 2020?

 

[kEiThZ]

Even anecdotally, I grew up in Dufferin-Caledon, which has been a consistent conservative stronghold for almost my entire life.

Anecdotes are not polling.

Your broad assertion is that polling is flawed because young people don't answer land lines. This utterly discounts the fact that polkaterv will adjust and correct their survey samples to reflect the electorate. This is how they end up close to the election day result. A pollster massively missing will hurt their reputation and cost them business.