2022/25 Russian-Ukrainian War

[AlvinofDiaspar]

This is not a peace plan. This is akin to full capitulation of Ukraine on Russian terms with all of putin's wettest dreams coming to fruition:
1. Russia gets to say how small the Ukrainian army is.
2. Russia gets to dictate how poorly equipped the Ukrainian army is to fight the future Russian invasion.
3. Russia gets to dictate to NATO who it can accept into the alliance. Obviously, Ukraine doesn't get a chance, none of the other non-aligned nations anywhere near Russia get a chance to secure their sovereignty either.
4. Russia gets to dictate Ukrainian constitutional amendments.
5. Russia gets to dictate when Ukraine runs their elections.
6. Russia gets to dictate what mass media is allowed on Ukrainian airwaves, getting full access to pump unlimited propaganda into Ukrainian public discourse.
7. Russia gets off the hook with a $100B slap on the wrist and all sanctions against them removed. EU picks up the rest of the tab to rebuild Ukraine.
8. Russia is absolved of all the war crimes they commited. Putin gets to walk among the western leaders at the restored G8 as if nothing happened.
9. Russia and the USA are best buds again, American investments flow into Russia as part of common mineral extraction and tech projects.
10. Russia gets to say that Ukraine is not allowed to have any nukes.
11. USA gives Ukraine a pinky promise they will defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again. The same pinky promise US already gave Ukraine with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum when Ukraine gave up their nukes and gave them all away to Russia.
12. The 'peace plan' even spells out that if Ukraine ever send an unprovoked missile the way of Moscow or St. Petersburg, the American pinky-promises go away, leaving Ukraine to fend for itself. Literally spelling out how Russia can perform a false flag operation to legally resume its conquest of Ukraine in the future.

If this is not the absolute worst 'peace plan' in the history of peace plans, I don't know what is. It is a literal guarantee of war in a not too distant future once Ukraine disarms itself and Russia licks its wounds and goes for the final kill. That is, if Russia doesn't manage to put in place a puppet government in Ukraine before the need to go to war again, now that they control Ukrainian elections and information space.

Sometimes peace comes at too high a price - and that capitulation simply isn't an option.

It disgusts me that anybody is even attempting to negotiate with Russia, who have not shown the slightest bit of willingness to compromise at all. DO NOT TALK TO THEM. You arm Ukraine to the teeth and let them relentlessly strike Russian assets anywhere until their war effort becomes utterly untenable. No discussions should take place with them before that happens.

Ukraine should not even engage with a US led by Trump. He will not do anything to benefit them at all. They need to ignore this buffoon and strictly deal with the Europeans.

You arm them with nuclear weapons. You won't need intelligence - you just need enough long range missiles armed with enough warheads.

AoD

 

[DSCToronto]

The extraordinary US "plan" is shown on this graphic - Daily mail

How could Ukraine possibly accept this - and how could Europe or Canada go along with it?

 

[kEiThZ]

EU cannot replace all the capabilities US is currently providing to Ukraine. And without these capabilities, Russia will overrun Ukraine.

I very much disagree with this assessment. The major European powers have the intelligence and surveillance assets to replace American capabilities. We are trying to develop some of this capability ourselves now. What they don't have is a willingness to give Ukraine the aid it needs to win. That's a question of will, not capacity.

Folks should remember this when asked why we need to spend so much on defence. It's not just us. We will have the ability to donate to friends or provide them the intelligence they need.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I very much disagree with this assessment. The major European powers have the intelligence and surveillance assets to replace American capabilities. We are trying to develop some of this capability ourselves now. What they don't have is a willingness to give Ukraine the aid it needs to win. That's a question of will, not capacity.

Folks should remember this when asked why we need to spend so much on defence. It's not just us. We will have the ability to donate to friends or provide them the intelligence they need.

If Europe could share its intelligence, why hasn't it stepped in when the US cut it off? Again, is it no political will, or that US has leverage over Europe that precludes EU from stepping in?
And that's just the intelligence. There is also the question of air defenses. Patriot is the backbone of the Ukrainian ballistic missile defense right now. F-16s are the backbone of the cruise missile defense. The munitions for those are manufactured by the US. Most of European weapon systems have subcomponents sourced from US, making those weapons systems subject to third party authorization contract clause (i.e. US can veto their use by Ukraine).

 

[DSCToronto]

CNN has a longer list of the US ideas - the more one sees the worse it looks

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/21/europe/peace-proposal-russia-ukraine-annotated-intl-vis

 

[afransen]

Outrageous. Basically total capitulation to Russia.

 

[Towered]

Ukraine should reject this outright. It's the worst possible outcome. They need to fight on, no matter what. And the West needs to de-fang Russia once and for all.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

CNN has a longer list of the US ideas - the more one sees the worse it looks

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/21/europe/peace-proposal-russia-ukraine-annotated-intl-vis

Allow me to muse over some linguistic peculiarities found in this "peace plan"

The use of passive grammar structures:

Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries

All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited

Peculiar choice of words:

Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution

Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression

All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

Yoda-esque backwards grammar:

The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon

None of the above examples are wrong, per se. But they just don't quite sound right either, do they? It wouldn't be the first choice of words for a native English language speaker to phrase the same ideas, would it?

And that's because this is exactly how a Russian language speaker in putin's government would phrase these sentences in Russian. And they do, all the time. If you listen to Lavrov, to Peskov, to Dmitriev, to the Dear Supreme Tzar himself - they have all said these exact sentences in Russian. And if you took those sentences and ran them through Google Translate, polished it up a bit, this is what you would get as the result, including the ever-prevalent passive Yodaesque grammar and the use words like 'enshrine' and 'ambiguities'.

So this gives you an idea of who the real authors of this 'peace plan' are.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Outrageous. Basically total capitulation to Russia.

Munich Agreement 2025.

AoD

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

A point-by-point discussion of the so-called 'peace plan' by Ryan McBeth, a military intel analyst. As usual, some interesting insights from him:

I have to agree with his final thoughts. Just as I pointed out earlier, the strategy of playing ball with Trump admin is working for Ukraine. So Zelensky might just have to suck it up and agree to this proposal, betting that putin in his infinite wisdom will still reject the plan, because it is hard to sell this settlement as a victory to Russians. And that will once again make putin look like someone impossible to deal with in Trumps eyes, as opposed to Zelensky bending over backwards for Trump. Trumpy likes people bending over backwards, he rewards them with tasty treats. I hear Tomahawks are quite tasty.

Also, regardless of whether this so-called 'peace plan' is accepted by anyone or not, its mere existence is still BAAAD news for the entire world. It shows just how much US is willing to concede to war criminals. It shows just how weak the US leadership is. It shows that invading another country will pay off. It emboldens the rest of the bad actors to repat after Russia. And it most certainly emboldens China to invade Taiwan in the not too distant future (circa 2027).

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

A point-by-point discussion of the so-called 'peace plan' by Ryan McBeth, a military intel analyst. As usual, some interesting insights from him:

I have to agree with his final thoughts. Just as I pointed out earlier, the strategy of playing ball with Trump admin is working for Ukraine. So Zelensky might just have to suck it up and agree to this proposal, betting that putin in his infinite wisdom will still reject the plan, because it is hard to sell this settlement as a victory to Russians. And that will once again make putin look like someone impossible to deal with in Trumps eyes, as opposed to Zelensky bending over backwards for Trump. Trumpy likes people bending over backwards, he rewards them with tasty treats. I hear Tomahawks are quite tasty.

Also, regardless of whether this so-called 'peace plan' is accepted by anyone or not, its mere existence is still BAAAD news for the entire world. It shows just how much US is willing to concede to war criminals. It shows just how weak the US leadership is. It shows that invading another country will pay off. It emboldens the rest of the bad actors to repat after Russia. And it most certainly emboldens China to invade Taiwan in the not too distant future (circa 2027).

Honestly though was anyone surprised by this deal? No one should have been expecting anything less - the only surprise is that it took so long to end up with that.

AoD

 

[afransen]

Allow me to muse over some linguistic peculiarities found in this "peace plan"

The use of passive grammar structures:




Peculiar choice of words:




Yoda-esque backwards grammar:


None of the above examples are wrong, per se. But they just don't quite sound right either, do they? It wouldn't be the first choice of words for a native English language speaker to phrase the same ideas, would it?

And that's because this is exactly how a Russian language speaker in putin's government would phrase these sentences in Russian. And they do, all the time. If you listen to Lavrov, to Peskov, to Dmitriev, to the Dear Supreme Tzar himself - they have all said these exact sentences in Russian. And if you took those sentences and ran them through Google Translate, polished it up a bit, this is what you would get as the result, including the ever-prevalent passive Yodaesque grammar and the use words like 'enshrine' and 'ambiguities'.

So this gives you an idea of who the real authors of this 'peace plan' are.

Not sure if Trump is desperate to rack up the 'peace deals', that he willing to force capitulation on Ukraine. Honestly, Russia could be asked to compromise to a much greater extent. I have no idea why the West feels the need to promise to lift sanctions. Is this just about enriching US plutocrats?

 

[afransen]

It shows just how much US is willing to concede to war criminals.

It shows how much Trump is willing to concede. This is very unpopular with the American people (Trump is deep underwater in public opinion on the subject of Ukraine). Trump is just far and away the worst American president of the modern era. I am convinced that his second term will be looked back on by history as a catastrophically bad turn of events. China would then have a ticking clock until he is out of office in 2028 to try and take advantage of his weakness and fecklessness to take Taiwan. They may be incentivized to make the occupation of Taiwan a fait accompli for the next US President.

 

[PL1]

Not sure if Trump is desperate to rack up the 'peace deals', that he willing to force capitulation on Ukraine. Honestly, Russia could be asked to compromise to a much greater extent. I have no idea why the West feels the need to promise to lift sanctions. Is this just about enriching US plutocrats?

Perhaps he wants to rack up the peace deals as he seems to crave a Nobel Peace Prize...

 

[kEiThZ]

Honestly though was anyone surprised by this deal? No one should have been expecting anything less - the only surprise is that it took so long to end up with that.

AoD

Very much this.

And this is the downside of Europe relying so much on the US. They should have been ramping up production massively since day one of the Full Scale Invasion. Sufficiently so that they could replace the US. The threat of Trump returning was not taken seriously.