2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine might get better air defenses or longer missiles but I doubt they'd get direct intervention.

I‘m not convinced that the West would do anything beyond further sanctions and lethal aid if Russia set off a dirty bomb. I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack. Russia could launch a new Holodomor with Einsatzgruppen and gas chambers et al, publicly murdering Ukrainian women and children by the hundreds of thousands, stacking the bodies like sandbags in front of CNN and BBC cameras, and still NATO won’t do more than increase arms support to Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s war to win or loose, though maybe by that point Germany will finally release Leopard 2s.

 

[Bjays92]

I‘m not convinced that the West would do anything beyond further sanctions and lethal aid if Russia set off a dirty bomb. I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack. Russia could launch a new Holodomor with Einsatzgruppen and gas chambers et al, publicly murdering Ukrainian women and children by the hundreds of thousands, stacking the bodies like sandbags in front of CNN and BBC cameras, and still NATO won’t do more than increase arms support to Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s war to win or loose, though maybe by that point Germany will finally release Leopard 2s.

I agree a dirty bomb won't trigger intervention, but a nuke will and must. NATO won't respond with nukes or invade Russia but they will obliterate Russian forces within Ukraine.

If Russia can use a nuke to no response, what stops India and Pakistan from nuking eachother. North Korea, Iran. Nukes are an issue of global security and would not be tolerated under any circumstances. Anything short of that however, including chemical weapons I doubt would bring about a direct response.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine rocks social.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585003262184333313

 

[kEiThZ]

I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack.

You are mixing up NATO as a whole, and members of NATO. And while you're right that getting consensus inside NATO to act would be difficult, getting a coalition of the willing from Eastern Europe, the US and the UK would be much easier.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Hmm:

'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia

Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".

www.bbc.com

AoD

 

[Bjays92]

Hmm:

'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia

Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".

www.bbc.com

AoD

Rumour is potentially multiple ships sunk including the flagship replacement for the Moskva. Losing two "flagships" to a country with no Navy in a land war would certainly be embarrassing if true.

 

[lenaitch]

I'll await credible reports. I'm seeing reports of ships damaged, nothing about anything sunk, and varying reports of degrees of damage. Nobody is defining what they mean by "drone", but warships are rather hard to sink.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

On Sunday GeoConfirmed, a volunteer group, said an “Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate” was a victim of the attack. After examining stills photos, it concluded: “Only the Admiral Makarov matches this class for the Black Sea Fleet.” The video stops when a drone reaches the Russian boat, it added, with the unmanned vessel “likely” blowing up on impact.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...damaged-in-crimea-drone-attack-video-suggests

 

[Bjays92]

I'll await credible reports. I'm seeing reports of ships damaged, nothing about anything sunk, and varying reports of degrees of damage. Nobody is defining what they mean by "drone", but warships are rather hard to sink.

These were unmanned sea vehicles, not flying drones like we often think of. Russia would not reveal if any ships sank, but the speculation is that based off of both video and the devices used to strike the ships, it's possible the damage was enough to sink some of them.

Again, it's largely speculative based on the limited information we have, but it would most certainly seem the strikes that were successful were hull strikes, which would no doubt put the vessels at significant risk.

 

[lenaitch]

These were unmanned sea vehicles, not flying drones like we often think of. Russia would not reveal if any ships sank, but the speculation is that based off of both video and the devices used to strike the ships, it's possible the damage was enough to sink some of them.

Again, it's largely speculative based on the limited information we have, but it would most certainly seem the strikes that were successful were hull strikes, which would no doubt put the vessels at significant risk.

You could well be right since truth and accuracy are always a casualty. One CNN report said 9 aerial drones and 7 marine.

With exception of some critical areas, it's not that warships are heavily armoured like warships of old, but their compartmentalization and damage control procedures are intended to keep then afloat and in the fight. However, as we have seen elsewhere in this war, Russia best practices might be a little wanting.

 

[Johnny Au]

Russia and Ukraine's demographics problem has been exacerbated by the war:

 

[Towered]

70,000 Russian soldiers KIA now with nothing to show for it. By all means, keep going!

 

[Admiral Beez]

Russia and Ukraine's demographics problem has been exacerbated by the war:

It was mobilization, not the war in Ukraine will destroy Russia.

 

[DSC]

Another 'accident" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...aker-called-end-Ukraine-war-coma-falling.html

and

Vladimir Putin 'DOES have Parkinson's and cancer, leaked emails say'

The Russian leader has been plagued with rumours about his ill health for months and he has regularly appeared twitching and unsteady while in public.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Northern Light]

Looks like the Russians have mostly vacated the one bank of the Dneiper.

Dmitri of War Translated has this:

From:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588181435919253504

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Without sourcing everything (I could) will add, it appears that Russian flags are being removed from key buildings around Kherson, by the Russians.

That certainly seems indicative of a departure.

***

Also looks like the Russians lost another fighter, and several trucks in the last day or two. Not clear to me if in either of these instances its anything more than an 'accident' on the Russian end.