Northern Light
Superstar
A very lengthy piece in the Washington Post outlining the operations of Ukrainian Intelligence Services and noting the CIA's involvement, among other things:
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
Paywall free version here https://archive.ph/Wupqa
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Russia blames Ukraine for antisemitic riot at airport in Dagestan
Foreign ministry says Kyiv played ‘direct and key role’ after mob stormed planes in search of Israeli passengers
www.theguardian.com
Well, of course it was those damned Ukrainians, they also are clearly responsible for global warming and covid!
Russia has blamed Ukraine for the antisemitic riot in the mostly Muslim region of Dagestan on Sunday in which an angry mob stormed the airport in Makhachkala in search of Jewish passengers arriving from Israel.
Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said on Monday that the riot was the result of a “provocation” orchestrated from outside Russia, with Ukraine playing a “direct and key role”.
Earlier in the day, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, claimed the unrest was “the result of external intervention, including external information influence”.
Neither Zakharova or Peskov provided evidence to support their claims of outside interference.
Richard White
Senior Member
With this seemingly dragging on into next year I wonder what the endgame is here?
It is almost as though the war has reached a stalemate.
It is almost as though the war has reached a stalemate.
kEiThZ
Superstar
It unfortunately has. Zaluszhny has penned a recent essay and there's an interview in The Economist discussing what is needed to break the stalemate:
https://www.economist.com/europe/20...f-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia
This is really a test of the West. And particularly of Europe. We either help Ukraine or allow the stalemate to go on which only emboldens Russia. Imagine the shenanigans Russia will pull if they've even comfortably stalemated Ukraine.
afransen
Senior Member
This has been a far more costly war than Russia ever could have imagined, no? I'm not sure they will take this experience as one to be replicated.
kEiThZ
Superstar
As Zaluszhny points out, Russia's ratio of casualties was worse than the Winter War. This prompted Stalin to stop the invasion of Finland. Putin is somehow worse and the Russian people are more brainwashed.
Recent surveys show that Russians don't support a ceasefire if land is to be returned to Ukraine. They are as imperialist as ever.
Most Russians against ending Ukraine war if captured land returned - poll
Support for the Kremlin's war aims endures, despite mounting losses and the continued economic fallout of the invasion, according to a poll.
This means that they will have the same mindset for future wars. They West needs to to provide support that achieves a few things:
1) Allows Ukraine to destroy all high value assets in Crimea. From ships and submarines to bridges.
2) Substantially increase the casualty ratio in Ukraine's favour. The population ratio is 3:1. We should help Ukraine make sure the casualty ratio is 5:1. And that should include Ukrainian civilian casualties. This way, the Russians start running out people before Ukraine. This involves things like cluster munitions.
3) Start building the combined arms force now to take back land from a massively degraded Russian force. Not in 2024. But in 2025. Russians should know what is coming. And feel dread about it.
I can't believe how much we've failed Ukraine. And that includes countries like Canada.
jje1000
Senior Member
In my opinion, the situation for Ukraine is likely significantly worse than what the US and its media apparatus are willing to admit- 100K deaths as the article states would hardly have caused the manpower issues that Zaluzhny and co. are acknowledging now, nor would officials believe that they have until the end of the year before "urgent discussions" become necessary, if it were a mere stalemate.
Regardless, Russia has no incentive to fight according to the US's timeline nor would it be willing to take what it has now as its war winnings. The fact that the US now faces a multiple-front war with a depleted arsenal is in fact beneficial towards Russia, Hamas, China, Iran, etc.as it forces the US to prioritize, and Israel will always come out on top.
That being said, the US still achieved much of its geopolitical goals, namely those of separating Europe from Russia, gaining a valuable energy market, locking the region more tightly with the NATO, and grabbing valuable metallurgical/energy industries in its path to re-industrialize.
Regardless, Russia has no incentive to fight according to the US's timeline nor would it be willing to take what it has now as its war winnings. The fact that the US now faces a multiple-front war with a depleted arsenal is in fact beneficial towards Russia, Hamas, China, Iran, etc.as it forces the US to prioritize, and Israel will always come out on top.
That being said, the US still achieved much of its geopolitical goals, namely those of separating Europe from Russia, gaining a valuable energy market, locking the region more tightly with the NATO, and grabbing valuable metallurgical/energy industries in its path to re-industrialize.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Yes they would have. The 100k that Ukraine shouldn't allegedly has lost, would be their most trained and experienced. So it absolutely would cause problems. This 100k would have been much more valuable, than the next 100k. It's cold calculus. But such is war.
I don't understand where people come up with this stuff. It's gotta be misinformation getting pushed.
There's not much that is being supplied to Ukraine that is very relevant to Israel fighting a counterinsurgency in Gaza or to a largely air and naval war in Taiwan. 200 km range cluster Block 1 ATACMS isn't doing much for Israel or Taiwan.
As for depleted...I don't even know how to respond to this. The US still has more armour alone sitting in the desert collecting dust and rust than the entire Russian army. A single F-35 production line makes more 5th generation jets per month than what the entire Russian Air Force fields, all while the US moves to 6th gen fighters. And while the Russian and Chinese and North Koreans do produce more ammunition than the US and Europe, what they never tell you is that their ammo requires 5 rounds to take out a target and western ammo does that in 1-2 rds. And Western weapons keep getting better. Compare the modern PrSM to the ATACMS it is replacing. Or the JATM that will replace the AMRAAM (already among the best air-to-air missiles around) within a few years. Keep in mind that China will not be facing a Taiwan using 20 yr old surplus American and European stock. They are going to face the latest and greatest the US has.
Are there constraints? Absolutely. But anybody who is going on about "depleted arsenals" and running out of ammo and weapons for Israel and Taiwan is absolutely clueless. Or usually serving some kind of propagandist function.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Where the West should have stepped in was in supporting Ukraine's EU and NATO bids in 2014.
And before that, in Jan 2014 when it became clear that Russia was going to invade Crimea, that's the moment that NATO should have marched into Crimea behind a column of Ukrainian colours. But really, the EU and NATO should have been helping Ukraine since it gained independence in the 1990s.
But the US and the West were so distracted with pounding sand in the Middle East and Afghanistan that they forgot where their true geopolitical risks and opportunities are. The sooner the oil fields of the Arab world dry up, or more likely the sooner we move to a non-oil economy, the better for all of us.
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Collingwoodbuildinglover
Active Member
Wondering what everyone's opinion on the reasoning for sending a single m142 in the latest aid package. Some commentators speculate. It is due to GLSDB'S though I am wondering if it is more for atcmes as I remember reading an article a year ago that their current stock of m142s are not compatible due to software changes by the US
kEiThZ
Superstar
Either attrition replacement (which can happen even without combat losses) or simply capability addition.
Software changes don't require hardware delivery.
Collingwoodbuildinglover
Active Member
Yeah, most commentators say they have lost zero m270s or m142s though I have a hard time believing not saying they have lost all of them but at least one or two have got to have been hit by now
kEiThZ
Superstar
I find it believable they haven't lost any given the tactics the Ukrainians use with these launchers. That said, I also find it highly unlikely they've gone months without breaking at least one.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I'd love to see an all female Ukrainian tank crew. I've always liked the Merkava. And having been to Israel, I am a big fan of their warrior women. Ukraine's women are just as determined.