2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[Allandale25]

I'm not as familiar as I should be with the RER procurement process. But my understanding is that the RER project has been divided into a lot of smaller contracts, rather than one large design/build/maintain contract (as we see with the Crosstown). I would not expect the NDP to cancel any contracts that have already been signed, but they'll probably not be signing any more. Whatever remains to be signed will be built/operated/maintained by public workers.

I guess the question is if there is enough time to higher and train enough public workers to build RER on the current timeframe of 2024-2025. I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert on the capacity of the private or public sector. @TheTigerMaster, Phil Verster was asked about the nature of the contracts and why they use DBFOM and the private sector to do things like RER. I posted the response earlier but not sure if you've seen it. If not let me know and happy to post again.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I guess the question is if there is enough time to higher and train enough public workers to build RER on the current timeframe of 2024-2025. I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert on the capacity of the private or public sector. @TheTigerMaster, Phil Verster was asked about the nature of the contracts and why they use DBFOM and the private sector to do things like RER. I posted the response earlier but not sure if you've seen it. If not let me know and happy to post again.

Yes, please do post it again. I did not see that

 

[rbt]

Yonge North, Waterfront LRT, etc. have capital funding coming from the feds.

Feds put very few strings on their funding. The municipality and province were left to decide on actual spending priorities.

They can spend it on anything from Waterfront LRT to Sheppard Subway to platform doors or even fire safety improvements.

 

[Allandale25]

Yes, please do post it again. I did not see that

This was Phil's response to a question from the "Keep Transit Public" campaign that the NDP is highly supportive of. Its being led by the ATU.

Updated:

@TheTigerMaster here's the correct link: youtu.be/ZxZmaU834ok?t=24m27s

It starts at the 24 minute 27 second mark so go there. The question is mostly about LRTs but the same applies to GO RER.

 

[Leo_Chan]

^ Sorry the time marker is off. The question starts at around 1hr 5min. I'll fix it shortly.

Embed media doesn't start directly at the specific time of the modified link. Just post the link of the video with the timestamp attached: link

 

[Allandale25]

^ Thanks for the tip. @TheTigerMaster here's the correct link: youtu.be/ZxZmaU834ok?t=24m27s

It starts at the 24 minute 27 second mark so go there. The question is mostly about LRTs but the same applies to GO RER.

 

[Rainforest]

I think it's about time for us to talk about what an NDP government will mean for transit in the GTHA. Most of this thread has focused on the Liberals and PCs, but given the most recent polling showing the NDP opening up a 10 and 14 point lead over the PCs, we oughta be giving them some attention. According to the polling, the NDP will most likely be overseeing transit over the next four years.

Yes; what a wild swing of fortune. Suddenly, NDP has a real shot at winning.

Operational funding: The NDP has committed to funding 50% of the TTC's operational costs. This is something I strongly support, however I am concerned that this will just let the cost cutters at City Hall reduce the City's share of the subsidy. I hope that the NDP government is smart enough to have the City commit to providing a certain amount of funding, such that transit commuters will actually see a net benefit in their commutes, thanks to the additional provincial support

50% of the operational subsidy, or 50% of all operational costs?

50% of subsidy makes sense, but 50% of all costs would be excessive and unnecessary given that TTC recovers more than 60% of its operational costs from the fare box. If the province can afford 50% of all operational costs, they ought to use it for transit expansion instead.

Relief Line South/North/West: The NDP has committed to building the "Relief Line", without specifying what exactly that means. We can logically conclude that they'd build at least the Relief Line South, but what about the other components? All we can do is speculate. I think that it is highly likely that they'll also fund the Relief Line North, if only because that's a project that the Liberals are sure to support it in their 2022 campaign.

Looking further into the future, let's not forget about the Relief Line West as well. Official word from Toronto City Planning is that they expect to begin planning work on the Relief Line West once planning work for Relief Line North is complete. Given the latest Relief Line North schedule, planning on Relief Line West should begin around 2022, which would be right at the beginning of the NDPs potential second term. What intrigues me about this proposal is that, because the Relief Line West will run through a lot of NDP-friendly ridings, the NDP would likely be more inclined than any of the other parties to support the Relief Line West. I would not be surprised to see an NDP government commit to this project in the 2022-2026 term, to shore up their support in these ridings.

If there is one positive thing about the NDP government, that's the chance they will actually fund Relief Line South.

Scarborough Subway Extension: Like all three parties, the NDP supports the SSE, although I'd say they're the least enthusiastic about the project. A Liberal or PC government would have been very likely to provide additional funding to cover cost overruns, but I'm not too sure that the NDP would be. This project would likely be at risk if it went over budget.

Nobody wants to cancel this subway. But, it might have to be shifted into the Uxbridge Sub corridor.

Sheppard East Transit: The Sheppard Subway expansion certainly isn't happening. The LRT is questionable as well, but I'd say that is also unlikely to move forward under the NDP government. That project won't be a big priority for them.

It wouldn't be a priority for any government, no matter which party wins on June 7.

GO RER/SmartTrack: The NDP will maintain the Liberals plan on this

Hamilton, Hurontario LRTs: The NDP has said they would proceed with these projects

Definitely.

High Speed Rail: The NDP has committed to continue planning on the HSR. They haven't committed to actually building it. I feel like this project is highly unlikely to be fully completed by the NDP government. Perhaps it would be built only to London or Waterloo (if it's built at all)

Everything else: I feel like their support of other projects, including Yonge North, Waterfront Transit, Eglinton East LRT, Eglinton West LRT, is in question. The NDP hasn't ever specifically addressed these projects. The NDP does generally favour spending on social programs, over capital expansion, so I do fear that these projects would be on the back burner under the NDP government.

I think Yonge North will be stalled if NDP wins, while some of the city LRT projects might be supported. Not sure which combination and in what order.

Overall, the NDP government would represent a positive continuation of the Liberal's transit plans. We should not see any stunning project cancelations if they form government. But the NDPs focus on social programs probably means that transit infrastructure won't develop as quickly as it would have under the Liberals. However, due to additional operational funding, the service quality provided by TTC, GO Transit and others should be a lot better than it is today.

It'd rather take capital for expansion than operational subsidy. The city copes with the operations, but cannot afford much of expansion on its own.

Well, we get what we get.

 

[mdrejhon]

What a turn of events.

I'll sleep better without transit project cancellations.

And from the onpulse.ca website, a diagram provides an important clue of the NDP surprise.

It appears that many Cons/Libs voters were "flexible" to voting for NDP.

The below chart showed up a few days ago, providing a hint of a possible NDP breakout. Which is happening now.

 

[Allandale25]

Wonder if there will be any transit-related questions in tonight's leaders debate?

 

[JasonParis]

I don't think there was a single one, although I only watched 80% of it.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I think the NDP will cave on sheppard east.

 

[Leo_Chan]

Wonder if there will be any transit-related questions in tonight's leaders debate?

I don't think there was a single one, although I only watched 80% of it.

There wasn’t.

I don’t know if this has any significance, but after the debate, all three leaders shook hands. However, Ford was the one to walk away first while Wynne and Horwath walked together talking while the camera zoomed out.

 

[OneCity]

I think the NDP will cave on sheppard east.

Will be difficult for Horwath to stickhandle as the intra-Toronto NDP backed union/special interest groups will continue to nudge them to reopen the SELRT in its old form but she is likely aware that would be voted down by residents even faster this time around. Changes will need to be made if its not going to be a subway built on this corridor.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think the NDP would cave on Yonge North. So much electoral gain to be had.

 

[Rainforest]

I think the NDP would cave on Yonge North. So much electoral gain to be had.

Let's see if they have any success in York Region.

I suspect that NDP, despite their surge in many other regions, will remain far from winning any seats in York Region.

And then they have nothing to gain electorally by advancing Yonge North, and they can rationalize not doing Yonge North by saying the Relief Line must happen first (which will be correct incidentally).