2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Transit Plans

[rbt]

"Sitting back and not getting in the way" is not the worst scenario.

Right. We came really close to experiencing the worst (if Ford was actually competent as a whip). I won't be unhappy with Tory but I won't really be happy with him either. Buys us time until someone with some inspiration comes along.

However, I doubt that Tory can afford that, if he hopes to get elected again in 2018. If all we get is GO RER with higher than TTC fare, then it will be useful for relatively few riders, and certainly will not resolve the core subway capacity problems.

Well, he might talk the province into running 12 car double-deck EMUs every 10 to 15 minutes, but I think he'll have to break his low-tax promise to subsidize GO operations as the province isn't going to cover that pledge. The province is going to struggle to build what they've directly promised.

That said, a normal GO fare with a cheap TTC transfer (perhaps 50 cents) might be a reasonable compromise. $5 for an express service isn't out of line.


Scarborough Subway will probably die during the EA. The city won't cover the gap (7% property tax increase for a 25% subway price increase). Perhaps he can redirect the existing TTC funds Ford put into place toward GO fare subsidies. $50M/year within 416 borders would make a substantial ticket price difference.

A meaningful implementation of SmartTrack will require both TTC fare and high capacity. That almost certainly mandates a downtown rail tunnel.

Agreed, but that's not even going to get to an EA phase within 5 years. This is the kind of thing we will probably be looking at in 2020.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Again, had Wynne restored the Eglinton West extension, we would not be talking about this. I bet the majority of the 8 billion dollars tunneling from Renforth to Mt Dennis.

 

[dowlingm]

I've always said that a key component of the Big Move should have been the manufacturing of the vehicles necessary for it in places like Oshawa and Windsor. There's a significant manufacturing-competent workforce in both of those places that are looking for work. That way, more parts of the Province benefit from the Big Move, even if they aren't areas that would be served by it.

As for the size of orders, I think they would definitely be large enough to warrant that type of manufacturing deployment. Windsor in particular would greatly benefit from being the construction hub of all of the new GO EMUs. That would be at least 10 years of solid employment for hundreds if not thousands of workers, with the potential for more if other North American cities look at what the GTA is doing with RER and want to emulate.

I don't see GTA getting this. This will almost certainly be a Bombardier bilevel derivative and those will be made in T Bay as will TR2s. The line which should have come to Toronto was the LRV/streetcar one since it didn't already exist in T Bay and a bunch of union workers would have been available to pack the council chamber any time Ford got lippy, as the Downsview Local did during the Miller bridge fiasco.

 

[salsa]

As for express rides... Tory in the spring did propose queue lane jumping and express bus routes. He and his team has said absolutely nothing on his Bus Plan since however. Would be nice to see him (re-)announce his Bus Plan now that the campaign is coming to an end, it would put a final nail in the coffin on Chow's campaign if he released a better Bus Plan for the suburbs.

Tory demonstrated how much he cares about buses when he slammed the TTC's proposed service improvements, calling it 'irresponsible' because it costs money. This is the same guy who is proposing an $8 billion transit plan with a dubious financing scheme, and supporting the future white elephant subway line in Scarborough. As you said, we haven't heard anything about this bus plan lately. Remember he also skipped the TTC Riders debate, supposedly because "John has extraordinary demands on his time and, unfortunately, we are unable to accommodate every event and request" (bullshit, he attend another debate only two hours later).

For John Tory, there are no transit needs beyond the smart track.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Tory demonstrated how much he cares about buses when he slammed the TTC's proposed service improvements, calling it 'irresponsible' because it costs money. This is the same guy who is proposing an $8 billion transit plan with a dubious financing scheme, and supporting the future white elephant subway line in Scarborough. As you said, we haven't heard anything about this bus plan lately. Remember he also skipped the TTC Riders debate, supposedly because "John has extraordinary demands on his time and, unfortunately, we are unable to accommodate every event and request" (bullshit, he attend another debate only two hours later).

For John Tory, there are no transit needs beyond the smart track.

He's addressed the service improvements numerous times. He isn't a fan of signing off of something just because he likes it, as Chow would (his own words), and wants the Budget Committee to approve it. Would provide source but I'm in a bit of a hurry.

And he skipped the TTC Riders debate for realpolitik reasons.

 

[ehlow]

Again, had Wynne restored the Eglinton West extension, we would not be talking about this. I bet the majority of the 8 billion dollars tunneling from Renforth to Mt Dennis.

If only Metrolinx had listened to you all these years!

Tory demonstrated how much he cares about buses when he slammed the TTC's proposed service improvements, calling it 'irresponsible' because it costs money. This is the same guy who is proposing an $8 billion transit plan with a dubious financing scheme, and supporting the future white elephant subway line in Scarborough. As you said, we haven't heard anything about this bus plan lately. Remember he also skipped the TTC Riders debate, supposedly because "John has extraordinary demands on his time and, unfortunately, we are unable to accommodate every event and request" (bullshit, he attend another debate only two hours later).

For John Tory, there are no transit needs beyond the smart track.

He's following the political rulebook: repeat one idea or certain phrases over and over until it catches on ("subways subways subways", "7 years not 17", "4 more stops, 4 years sooner"). If anybody brings up anything else transit related, he will immediately re-direct back to SmartTrack. Clearly it's working since Chow's whole campaign is focused on picking apart the details of it.

Every campaign uses these strategies, and now that Chow's overall message is about SmartTrack ("how many houses will you demolish! how many km of tunnel!"), SmartTrack was clearly the most successful meme/idea of the election.

Anyways Tory did have things in his campaign before the TTC service improvement report that were in the improvement report, queue jump lanes, traffic light sync, express buses were all in Tory's plan.

His response of "where is the money going to come from" was likely a play towards fiscal conservative voters.

 

[dowlingm]

Realpolitik - the sort of campaign you run when you hire Rasputin as your campaign guru.

 

[kEiThZ]

As for using the GO tracks, look at the S-Bahn in Berlin or the RER in Paris. They're perfect examples of the type of thing Tory is proposing.

This is honestly what I like about Smart Track. Suburban rail is finally on the table. And if Tory pulls this off, transit will never be the same in the GTA (not just Toronto).

In the rest of the world, suburban rail is the backbone of the system, with subway and LRT filling in. In Toronto we plan 30km LRTs with stops every 400-800m.

Smart Track isn't a perfect plan to be sure. But neither was Transit City. And Miller never got half the criticism that Tory is getting now. Transit City was initially pitched at $6 billion. It's likely to take $15 billion (in today's dollars) to finish. Prioritisation for transit city was rather weak. Target "priority neighbourhoods". And hope that LRT gentrifies them. And to kick all this off, Miller wouldn't pick a critical line like Eglinton or an easy one line Finch West. Nope, pick Sheppard East. He hoped to kill the subway for good. If any politician on the right had planned transit like this, he'd be getting a shellacking. Yet, the guy whose transit plan overlaps 80% with an actual Metrolinx/provincial priority is the one getting the criticism.

 

[gweed123]

This is honestly what I like about Smart Track. Suburban rail is finally on the table. And if Tory pulls this off, transit will never be the same in the GTA (not just Toronto).

With a pro-RER Mayor (assuming Tory wins and is willing to compromise on a few aspects of SmartTrack), a pro-RER Liberal Provincial government, and hopefully a pro-transit Liberal Federal government coming next year, my one big hope is that all or part of the RER plan can reach a point by the next round of elections that a significant chunk of it is fait accompli, much like the Eglinton tunnel was during this election cycle.

GO's original electrification plan was to do the Georgetown corridor to somewhere in Brampton (either Bramalea, Brampton, or Mt. Pleasant, off the top of my head I forget which), and the Lakeshore corridor from Oakville to Pickering. The track work that is required in order for electrified service to be implemented is nearing completion, so hopefully Metrolinx can fast track that electrification so that it can be a showcase for RER in the next election cycle, or at the very least be under construction. Once there is a concrete example of RER in the GTA, I have no doubt at all that there will be the necessary public support behind it for a system-wide RER-ification of the network.

 

[kEiThZ]

@gweed.

I'd go further than that. For those who worry about demands for subways and the 'war on the car' rhetoric, suburban rail is your saviour. Nothing will kill demands for subways like suburban rail. Once, all these suburban commuters see the speed with which suburban rail delivers them to the core and allows real crosstown commutes, the clamour for subways will go down and transit usage in the inner suburbs will increase.

I notice too that a lot of the criticism against Smart Track is on the western portion. Does this not mean that the eastern portion could be built while sorting out the western half?

I have no doubt that Metrolinx will sit down with him after the election, and they'll decide how to handle the overlap between Smart Track and the Scarborough subway. Heck, they'll refine the entire proposal since they're paying for a chunk of it.

And this is a proposal they could work with. Think about the DRL in today's context. Not sure it would actually relieve Yonge before I retire (and in my early 30s). Most of the congestion on Yonge is caused by surging usage from York region. The only way to relieve Yonge is to move them to the GO network. The DRL only diverts some Scarborough riders (largely those heading to destinations south of Bloor). That's not enough to relieve Yonge. And the northern portion of the DRL (along Don Mills) is nowhere on Metrolinx's radar. With the classic DRL proposal in the 25 year plan that's already significantly behind schedule.

I'm sure the planners at Metrolinx get this. GO electrification probably needs to happen before the DRL. And along comes Tory...

 

[ehlow]

keithz,

I agree with your enthusiasm for GO RER & SmartTrack, and yes I think Metrolinx could cancel the Eglinton West portion (or "postpone it to the next phase" meaning cancel) when negotiating with Tory.

However I must emphasize again that for regional transit with stops > 1-2km apart to work, it is absolutely essential to have frequent well integrated local transit with shorter stop spacing in the suburbs, so that people can get to & from the GO RER stops.

For example, say you live at CityPlace downtown need to get to work at AMD's office in Markham at Leslie & Highway 7. It's 7 km away from the Unionville GO station at highway 7. The only way to get there from the GO station is a 10-15 min bus ride along highway 7, then another 5-10 min walk to the office. I guess it's possible for larger companies to provide a shuttle like they do in Silicon Valley but still, someone has to provide the last mile service, probably better for Viva to.

Despite the bus/walking travel time, above trip could still be preferable to driving since our highways are insanely congested, and with the speed of GO RER, it could still be competitive. Transit also has the advantage of the commuter being able to read or do work during the trip, of course.

Or another obvious example is someone living in Scarborough would need a local bus, BRT or LRT with close stop spacing (so that most people are within walking distance of a stop from their house) in order to get to the GO RER station to get to work in SouthCore downtown.

If more development happens within walking distance of the stops in the future it becomes less of a problem (which I hope it will), but as it is local transit is essential and complementary to regional, not competing against it.

 

[MrsNesbitt]

https://twitter.com/oliviachow/status/519176315073990656

This tweet makes me so angry, especially as a Chow supporter.

A bloody second track can and will and should be built regardless of who wins, be it Tory, Chow, or Ford! This is all the province's responsibility and I'm getting sick and tired of Toronto candidates pretending that AD2W GO RER is something that's i) infeasible, ii) useless, or iii) their idea.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

https://twitter.com/oliviachow/status/519176315073990656

This tweet makes me so angry, especially as a Chow supporter.

A bloody second track can and will and should be built regardless of who wins, be it Tory, Chow, or Ford! This is all the province's responsibility and I'm getting sick and tired of Toronto candidates pretending that AD2W GO RER is something that's i) infeasible, ii) useless, or iii) their idea.

She's just going through the motions.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If only Metrolinx had listened to you all these years!



He's following the political rulebook: repeat one idea or certain phrases over and over until it catches on ("subways subways subways", "7 years not 17", "4 more stops, 4 years sooner"). If anybody brings up anything else transit related, he will immediately re-direct back to SmartTrack. Clearly it's working since Chow's whole campaign is focused on picking apart the details of it.

Every campaign uses these strategies, and now that Chow's overall message is about SmartTrack ("how many houses will you demolish! how many km of tunnel!"), SmartTrack was clearly the most successful meme/idea of the election.

Anyways Tory did have things in his campaign before the TTC service improvement report that were in the improvement report, queue jump lanes, traffic light sync, express buses were all in Tory's plan.

His response of "where is the money going to come from" was likely a play towards fiscal conservative voters.

Hey I'm a man of the people

@gweed.

I'd go further than that. For those who worry about demands for subways and the 'war on the car' rhetoric, suburban rail is your saviour. Nothing will kill demands for subways like suburban rail. Once, all these suburban commuters see the speed with which suburban rail delivers them to the core and allows real crosstown commutes, the clamour for subways will go down and transit usage in the inner suburbs will increase.

I notice too that a lot of the criticism against Smart Track is on the western portion. Does this not mean that the eastern portion could be built while sorting out the western half?

I have no doubt that Metrolinx will sit down with him after the election, and they'll decide how to handle the overlap between Smart Track and the Scarborough subway. Heck, they'll refine the entire proposal since they're paying for a chunk of it.

And this is a proposal they could work with. Think about the DRL in today's context. Not sure it would actually relieve Yonge before I retire (and in my early 30s). Most of the congestion on Yonge is caused by surging usage from York region. The only way to relieve Yonge is to move them to the GO network. The DRL only diverts some Scarborough riders (largely those heading to destinations south of Bloor). That's not enough to relieve Yonge. And the northern portion of the DRL (along Don Mills) is nowhere on Metrolinx's radar. With the classic DRL proposal in the 25 year plan that's already significantly behind schedule.

I'm sure the planners at Metrolinx get this. GO electrification probably needs to happen before the DRL. And along comes Tory...

I agree with this 1000 percent. Let's hope this gets in.

 

[ehlow]

https://twitter.com/oliviachow/status/519176315073990656

This tweet makes me so angry, especially as a Chow supporter.

A bloody second track can and will and should be built regardless of who wins, be it Tory, Chow, or Ford! This is all the province's responsibility and I'm getting sick and tired of Toronto candidates pretending that AD2W GO RER is something that's i) infeasible, ii) useless, or iii) their idea.

This to me shows how desperate Chow's campaign is to find any flaws they can in SmartTrack or GO RER. Their #1 goal now is to try to find any flaw they can, desperately trying to convince people that a rapid-transit service along GO can't happen.

However, as many know, Stouffville 2nd track is already happening and Metrolinx is already in the process of double tracking, there is room and it is feasible, so that attack completely falls flat on its face.

Unfortunately, I'm sure many Chow supporters will take this at face value and assume SmartTrack can't happen, even though Metrolinx is already in the process of installing the 2nd track.

Or, they'll make the claim that SmartTrack is somehow on separate tracks than GO RER, which makes no sense, and assume it requires 4 tracks, completely untrue, as TigerMaster seems to be doing. Sorry Tiger Master, you know I enjoy talking to you on this forum and agree with you on many things, but the idea that GO RER is a separate service than SmartTrack that runs on parallel tracks to GO RER is a complete fabrication. SmartTrack is simply a rename & modification of GO RER.